Examining some Giants’ prospects for Uggla
It seems like, if there was a likely destination for Dan Uggla’s plus bat and weak defense, it would with the San Francisco Giants. According to ESPN’s Jayson Stark, the Giants and Texas Rangers appear to have interest, but to me it would seem as if the Giants were the place to go. Uggla wants to remain at second base, but the Rangers would only be interested in him as a DH. If you took Uggla’s in-season numbers from this year and translated them with the -22.5 runs per season that a DH adjustment entails (remember, the -17.5 is due to the fact that DH’s come off the bench, but since we have Uggla’s numbers while playing the field, we have to adjust for the full DH adjustment), you’d have a 1 WAR player.
So I’m guessing that the Giants are going to be the team most interested in Uggla. They have already said that, because incumbent second baseman Freddy Sanchez can play third base (he was a very good third baseman for 1 1/2 seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates), the Giants would be willing to keep Uggla at second base.
The important thing for the Marlins is the return. Here I’m going to look at some prospects and players the Marlins could expect back from the Giants.
Let’s get this out of the way
As foolish as Giants GM Brian Sabean (usually) looks when dealing with/for veteran players, we will not be receiving anything along the lines of Madison Bumgarner or Buster Posey. I wanted to get that out of the way before we start considering players. Also, since Giants prospect Angel Villalona’s future is in doubt (he is in trial for murder in his home country), we likely wouldn’t be interested in him as well. Who does that leave?
Jonathan Sanchez
Last season, there was a lot of talk surrounding these two organizations regarding a straight-up deal that would send either Uggla or Jorge Cantu for Sanchez. At the time, I was of the opinion that an Uggla-Sanchez trade would be a negative, but a Cantu-Sanchez trade would have been excellent. Now that Uggla has lost a season of arbitration and is looking at a handsome pay raise, it could be beneficial for the Marlins to make a straight-up deal for Sanchez.
Sanchez walks a lot hitters (career walk rate 11.7%), but unlike Andrew Miller, Sanchez has proven that he can strike them out as well (career strikeout rate 23.5%). He does OK with home runs and has an overall average batted ball profile. The only issues with acquiring Sanchez are that he’s a little old for the Marlins’ taste (he just turned 27 a few days ago) and that he will be entering arbitration as well, for the first time. As a result, the Marlins may not be saving a whole lot going to Sanchez.
Fred Lewis
Apparently the Giants will never think much of Lewis, who has consistently been passed up in the corners despite being a solid player. Last season he was the starter in left field for much of the year and posted a 2.3 WAR season at the corners. The Marlins (should) have a need for a corner outfielder, and Lewis just happens to bat left-handed, which works perfectly in a platoon situation with defensive wizard Brett Carroll. Of course, given our management over the last year, it’d be surprising if Lewis even saw play if he was acquired.
Despite a solid bat and glove (projected .336 wOBA by Bill James, so call that average, and career UZR/150 in left field of 10.5), Lewis does face his issues as well. He is likely eligible for an additional season of team control, which is good, but he’s already getting up there in age. Lewis will turn 29 in a few weeks, so he is no spring chicken, and the Marlins are always looking to get younger if anything.
Conor Gillaspie
Gillaspie seems like a nice piece to start off an Uggla deal. Gillaspie was a Giants supplemental first-round pick in 2008, and this season he just completed his first full year of high-A action. He’s still fairly young (just 23 next season) but still needs seasoning in the minors. Here’s what John Sickels said about him in his season review:
Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Grade B-: Hitting .282/.363/.375 for San Jose, 55 walks, 65 strikeouts in 451 at-bats. Lots of polish, good discipline, but not enough power for a third baseman.
Indeed, the plate patience has been lauded, but the power is sorely lacking. We know power usually comes last in a player, so Gillaspie can be cut some slack there. The eye is encouraging, and a double-A stint would tell us a lot more about how he may develop. The glove in the minors looks OK, and Sickels has mentioned in the past that his defense could improve.
The issue with Gillaspie is the Marlins’ other options in the organization. He clearly is not ready for the big leagues now and would need to more to Double-A to play, but the Marlins will be certain to give every opportunity to Matt Dominguez at third base next year. Dominguez is an important player in the organization, and as such will be allowed to develop at his pace. This would force Gillaspie to move away from third and down the defensive spectrum to see playing time. However, Gillaspie’s questionable power and bat may downgrade his value if he’s forced to play at a worse position. Essentially, the Marlins really need a major league third baseman, but they probably would not be all that interested in an organizational third baseman.
Nick Noonan
The good news on Noonan is that he’s still very young (just 21 next year) and thus still has room to grow. He’s played in rookie ball, low-A, and high-A, but hasn’t hit well in the single-A levels. Here’s Sickels’ take:
Nick Noonan, 2B, Grade B-: Hitting .256/.327/.397 for San Jose. Has drawn more walks this year, but production didn’t improve otherwise.
Apparently Noonan’s biggest knock is his lack of walks, but he does flash average power for a second baseman (ISO has consistently been around .137), so he can help supplement that a little. Still, there is very little room in the majors for a .270/.315/.410 hitters. Defensive accounts are nothing special, and TotalZone grades him as solidly below average right now (after league adjustment), so it’s safe to say that Noonan is still a project. The Marlins do have Jake Smolinski in the minors as well, heading to Double-A this season, but could take on an extra middle infielder.
Among those guys, I have the most interest in Lewis and Gillaspie. There are also pitching prospects such as Henry Sosa, Waldis Joacquin, and Clayton Tanner to keep an eye on. Among these players, the Marlins could definitely build a package of decent value.
Personally I see Uggla going to either the Giants or Dodgers. With that said I think their is “zero” chance that Fred Lewis is part of the package. Not a big fan of Cole Gillaspie either for reasons mentioned above above and what baseball america had to say about him:
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norm (san diego): Is Conor Gillaspie the biggest disappointment of the 2008 draft? His ridiculous contract is probably the worst of any player from the draft and he hits with no power and cannot field 3B. Any idea what the Giants will do with him?
Dave Perkin: Hey Norm! Cheers! To judge the 2008 draft, I think we have to wait a few more years. That being said, Gillaspie did not impress me at all this year. At third, he doesn’t go after anything that isn’t hit right at him. He gets caught on too many bad or in between hops and doesn’t seem to read the ball well off of the bat. To succeed in pro ball as a hitter, you have to convert a high percentage of pitchers mistakes. If a pro pticher makes a good or great pitch, your chances of converting it into a base hit are very low for anyone, Mauer and Pujols included. Gillaspie struggled to convert pitchers mistakes into hits when I saw him, and was visibly agitated when he fouled the pitch off. Lets’ track him some more before we give up on him, howver.
This is from a BA Chat
Weaknesses: The Giants aren’t convinced Gillaspie will stay at third base, but they will give him every opportunity because they’re thin at the position. He tends to hurry in the field and doesn’t look smooth. He’s more of a doubles hitter than a home run threat, so his power might be a tad light for the hot corner. His intensity can come across as arrogance at times, such as when he annoyed some veterans in September when he said, “I think I can play as good as any of these guys up here.”
BA scouting report
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If a deal does go down between the Giants and Marlins I expect some type of package involving the following names: Thomas Neal, Roger Kieschnick, Aaron King, Clayton Tanner, Waldis Joaquin, Henry Sosa(torn shoulder), Dan Runzler, Nick Noonan, Eric Surkamp, Hector Sanchez, and Jorge Bucardo.
I would happily trade Uggla for Waldis Joaquin, Aaron King, and Dan Runzler but if the Marlins are able to get Roger Kieschnick or Thomas Neal as the centerpiece in any deal it will be great, I don’t see something like that happening however.
November 23rd, 2009 at 5:28 pmEric,
First off, welcome to the Marlin Maniac boards!
I agree that we aren’t likely to see either major league talent come up for age purposes, though I will say that Lewis would at least fill a need on the team.
I would not have a problem with pitching coming back, but I would prefer one major-league part returning in a deal. Gillaspie is the best prospect they’d have available likely, but he just doesn’t fit our organizational need. But again, we’ll have to see. It should be interesting, so we should all keep an eye on it.
November 23rd, 2009 at 7:57 pm[...] the deal with Sanchez? It is the same as the last time I talked about him. Here’s what I said before: Sanchez walks a lot hitters (career walk rate 11.7%), but unlike [...]
December 17th, 2009 at 3:38 pm