Hitting Prospect Addendum: Marcel Ozuna

There are three hitters left off my list that are included on other lists and I’d like to go over why they were left off.  Today I’m going to go over one who probably won’t be left off next year, Marcel Ozuna.

Ozuna was left off because he has yet to play in a full-season league.  I do not include short season league statistics in my projections because they’re normally a wash.  However, the power he showed as a 18 year old in the Gulf Coast league was pretty impressive.  After the jump, we’ll look at just how well he did.

Posting an unimpressive BB/K, Ozuna’s slash line (and prospect status) were greatly enhanced by a .383 BABIP.  A BABIP that high is just unsustainable, and his status on some lists might go crashing down next season when it doesn’t repeat.  But one of the things he did show was power.

The thing you have to remember is that Ozuna played in Roger Dean Stadium, the same stadium that the Jupiter Hammerheads play in.  RDS is an extreme pitchers park.  While I do not posses park factors for the GCL, we do have park factors for Jupiter.  Keep in mind that just because Jupiter has these park factors doesn’t mean the Marlins GCL team does – they’re two different leagues.  Since these are the only numbers we have though, so they’re the only numbers we can use.  But keep in mind that’s it’s a rough translation this time.

Applying Jupiter’s park factors increase his .ISO to .192 and slash line to .322/.385/.514.  A .192 ISO is very, very impressive for an 18 year old.  But it’s also a very small sample size, and also came from a ton of doubles.  This in part has to do with his high BABIP – less balls that drop in play mean less doubles.  But with his age and high FB%, you hope a good deal of those doubles can turn into home runs.

On top of his bat, he’s also shown scouts the potential to be good defensively in part thanks to a strong arm.  And although it’s a very small sample size, he was +3 runs in RF last year for the GCL team in 53 games.  Ozuna seems likely to start the year in Greensboro next year, and with the park factors there and his high FB% he could really flourish.

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