Series Preview: @New York Mets

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One thing I felt was lacking a bit in my coverage of actual games last season was previews of what is to come. I figured I would allow sites like FishStripes to deal with the day-to-day team coverage and live threads and let me handle to heavy analysis (not that FishStripes doesn’t afford its own opinions, Craig and GameFish are certainly opinionated). But it seems like Marlin Maniac would be missing out if it didn’t try to cover games, which is why I’ve thought about putting more emphasis on game coverage in things like our recap/Blogservations series.

I also figured the saber-slant I have at this site could also provide something in previewing series rather than just reviewing them. In that light, I wanted to start something that I hope I can keep up all season long: the first ever Marlin Maniac Series Preview (more creative name TBA, maybe)!

You can expect a few things here that you will see in other previews, along with some stuff you may not see in other places. Here’s what you’ll find:

– General series info (who we’re facing, home/road, current standings)

– Stadium info (Five-year regressed park factor from Patriot, dimensions if I can find them, individual event park factors would be really nice, but I won’t guarantee those)

– Projected pitching matchups, including current and projected FIP and and projected pitcher Pythagorean win%

– Projected lineups, including current and projected wOBA against lefties/righties based on projections done here.

– For projections, I’ll continue to use CHONE from start of season until ZiPS in-season projections go live on FanGraphs. From there, I will use those projections. For lefty/righty splits in the lineups, I’ll use the regressed splits I got in the lineup optimization article and apply those to the in-season wOBA projections.

– News and notes that I find interesting

Hopefully that intrigues you readers enough to entice you to check it out. With that in mind, here’s the first ever Marlin Maniac Series Preview, previewing the three-game set to open the year versus the New York Mets.

Florida Marlins @ New York Mets, April 5-8, Games 1-3

NL East Standings

Tm W L Win%
GB
ATL 0 0
FLA 0 0
NYM 0 0
PHI 0 0
WSN 0 0
Tm F W L GB
ATL F 0 0
FLA F 0 0
NYM F 0 0
PHI F 0 0
WSN F 0 0

Stadium: Citi Field
Five-year* Run PF: 0.98
Five-year* HR PF: 1.02
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 335 ft.
Left-Center: 364
Deep Left-Center: 384
Center Field: 408
Deep Right-Center: 415
Right-Center: 378
Right Field: 330

*Citi Field has only been around for one season, so really those factors are just one-year regressed factors

Projected Pitching Matchups

April 5: Josh Johnson vs. Johan Santana
April 7: Ricky Nolasco vs. John Maine
April 8: Nate Robertson vs. Jon Niese

CHONE Projections

FIP Win% Marlins Date Mets Win% FIP
3.26 .605 Johnson April 5 Santana .540 3.79
3.68 .553 Nolasco April 7 Maine .468 4.43
4.81 .430 Robertson April 8 Niese .490 4.23

Projected Lineups

Vs. RHP/LHP

Lineup Player Proj. wOBA v. RHP Proj. wOBA v. LHP
1 Chris Coghlan .366 .336
2 Cameron Maybin .350 .371
3 Hanley Ramirez .407 .428
4 Jorge Cantu .333 .351
5 Dan Uggla .353 .362
6 Cody Ross .329 .362
7 John Baker/Ronny Paulino*
.331 .343
8 Gaby Sanchez .340 .370
Team Runs/Game** 4.66 5.23

*Baker and Paulino are platooning. Projected wOBA vs. RHP is for Baker, vs. LHP is for Paulino.

**Runs/Game totals using estimates of platoons component values and this lineup simulator. Totals are derived as runs/game against only lefties or righties

Notes

– There are no typos in the pitching matchups; the Marlins are expected to throw out Nate Robertson instead of Anibal Sanchez in Game 3 of the series. Presumably Sanchez will get his shot over the weekend against the Los Angeles Dodgers. It looks as if the Marlins were interested in getting some playing time for Robertson now to manipulate the rotation timing; John informs me that giving Robertson the third spot would get him into the first series versus the Philadelphia Phillies. It will be interesting to see how much movement the Marlins make in the rotation in order to fit Robertson into starts versus the Phillies’ and Braves’ lefty-heavy lineups.

Cody Ross will be in the lineup on Opening Day despite major concerns over his calf injury. It looks like he played well enough in his last few Spring Training outings, particularly in the field, to get the spot. The team sent for Scott Cousins just in case, but it seems he’ll be heading back to Triple-A New Orleans.

– The Mets will be without three members of their ideal starting lineup, as Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and Daniel Murphy will sit out this series. Replacing Murphy is a familiar face, lefty first baseman and replacement-level fodder Mike Jacobs. Jacobs is best known for having an OPS of over .800 and still being a replacement-level player in 2008.

– As part of the season/series preview, I did a little Q&A with fellow BBA member Joseph Fiorello of Disgruntled Mets Fan. You can check out my answers here.

Bold Prediction: Marlins win 2 of 3 games

Fellow Maniacs, tell me what else you’d like to see on these articles or any other critiques you may have, and I’ll see if I can try and implement them!

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Tags: Cody Ross Miami Marlins Nate Robertson New York Mets

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