Series Preview: Cincinnati Reds


I know the preview is late guys, but I figured the information should be stated nonetheless.

Cincinnati Reds @ Florida Marlins, April 12-15, Games 7-10

NL East Standings

Tm W L Win% GB
PHI 5 1 .833
FLA 4 2 .667 1.0
ATL 3 3 .500 2.0
WSN 3 3 .500 2.0
NYM 2 4 .333 3.0

Stadium: Sun Life Stadium
Five-year Run PF: 0.99
Five-year HR PF: 0.97
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 330 ft.
Left-Center: 361
Center Field: 404
Right-Center: 361
Right Field: 345

Projected Pitching Matchups

April 12: Johnny Cueto vs. Ricky Nolasco
April 13: Bronson Arroyo vs. Nate Robertson
April 14: Homer Bailey vs. Chris Volstad
April 15: Aaron Harang vs. Josh Johnson

CHONE Projections

FIP Win% Marlins Date Reds Win% FIP
3.68 .553 Nolasco April 12 Cueto .443 4.67
4.81 .430 Robertson April 13 Arroyo .430 4.81
4.73 .437 Volstad April 14 Bailey .444 4.66
3.26 .605 Johnson April 15 Harang .487 4.26

Projected Lineups

Marlins

Lineup Player Proj. wOBA v. RHP Proj. wOBA v. LHP
1 Chris Coghlan .366 .336
2 Cameron Maybin .350 .371
3 Hanley Ramirez .407 .428
4 Jorge Cantu .333 .351
5 Dan Uggla .353 .362
6 John Baker/Ronny Paulino* .331 .343
7 Cody Ross
.329 .362
8 Gaby Sanchez .340 .370
Team Runs/Game** 4.66 5.23

*Baker and Paulino are platooning. Projected wOBA vs. RHP is for Baker, vs. LHP is for Paulino.

**Runs/Game totals using estimates of platoons component values and this lineup simulator. Totals are derived as runs/game against only lefties or righties

Notes

- Hopefully by the next series preview, I should also have projected lineups versus right-handed pitching for the opposing team, showing projected wOBA for their hitters as well.

- The other plan is to also include current stats by the end of this week, perhaps the middle of next week. I don’t want to clutter up the previews with wOBA/FIP/defensive numbers that mean very little at the moment. Maybe in another week or so, we’ll have some numbers that I don’t feel awful showing alongside the projections.

- One thing to watch will be how the Marlins handle their defense, with the club looking awful with the glove in the first two series. The Marlins appear to have the edge on offense and pitching, but defense could make lengthen innings and make it difficult for our back-end of the rotation and our ugly bullpen.

- Speaking of which, who will get the heavy-leverage eighth innings? Jose Veras has not endeared himself so far this season. Tim Wood got the eighth on Saturday with poor results. Dan Meyer is more of a LOOGY than a setup man. And no one wants to see Renyel Pinto in high-leverage situations. Hopefully the pen can work well in this series.

Bold Prediction: Marlins win two of four games

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Tags: Cincinnati Reds Miami Marlins

  • David C.

    This will be a very interesting series. The Reds always play us hard, and both teams are sorting through some issues at the moment. A series split is probably the most likely outcome since this matchup is about as even as you can get.

    • Michael Jong

      David C,

      Agreed. I think this will be a tight series. I think we threw away one big edge we had by tossing the Ricky start last night. Ricky was once again getting bad results despite decent K and BB.