Series Preview: @Philadelphia Phillies


This marks the official start of the division chase for the Florida Marlins, as they open up the season series versus the Philadelphia Phillies.

Florida Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies, April 16-18, Games 11-13

NL East Standings

Tm W L Win% GB
PHI 7 2 .778
FLA 6 4 .600 1.5
ATL 5 4 .556 2.0
WSN 4 5 .444 3.0
NYM 3 6 .333 4.0

Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Five-year Run PF*: 1.03
Five-year HR PF*: 1.09
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 329 ft.
Left-Center: 374
Center Field: 401
Right-Center: 369
Right Field: 330

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

Projected Pitching Matchups

April 16: Anibal Sanchez vs. Roy Halladay
April 17: Ricky Nolasco vs. Jamie Moyer
April 18: Nate Robertson vs. Cole Hamels

ZiPS In-Season Projections

FIP Win% Marlins Date Reds Win% FIP
4.07 .507 Sanchez April 16 Halladay .666 2.81
3.52 .577 Nolasco April 17 Moyer .421 4.89
4.34 .478 Volstad April 18 Hamels .564 3.60

Projected Lineups

Marlins

Lineup Player Current wOBA Proj. wOBA v. RHP Proj. wOBA v. LHP
1 Chris Coghlan .159 .343 .311
2 Cameron Maybin .372 .306 .320
3 Hanley Ramirez .414 .402 .422
4 Jorge Cantu .440 .333 .351
5 Dan Uggla .351 .349 .358
6 John Baker/Ronny Paulino* .414/.315 .332 .335
7 Cody Ross .347 .336 .369
8 Gaby Sanchez .393 .332 .361

*Baker and Paulino are platooning. Projected wOBA vs. RHP is for Baker, vs. LHP is for Paulino.

**Runs/Game totals using estimates of platoons component values and this lineup simulator. Totals are derived as runs/game against only lefties or righties

Notes

- I’ve transitioned from CHONE projections prior to the season to ZiPS in-season projections, figuring that these projections are going to be more applicable to the player going into the future. Some of them do appear to me to be a bit wonky, but I’m running with them nonetheless. Both position players and pitchers have ZiPS in-season projections available.

- I also included current wOBA. I won’t include FIP for a few more weeks, I don’t think that two starts worth of stats is going to show anything but absurd values.

- Chris Coghlan may sit out of the lineup a bit more this weekend. He’s already sitting out tonight’s affair still, recovering from that diving catch made on Wednesday. Saturday and Sunday involve lefty starters, meaning Coghlan may not see the weekend. If so, expect Gaby Sanchez to hit second against the lefties Moyer and Hamels this weekend.

- This is our first series versus the Phillies this year. We split our series last year, and hopefully we’ll have some of the same luck this season.

- Note that we have to face noted Marlins killer Jamie Moyer this series. We will hopefully counter the Moyer effect by using Nate Robertson, who was acquired specifically to tackle tough lefty lineups. He’ll start game 3.

Bold Prediction: Marlins take one of three games.

Next Marlins Game View full schedule »

Tags: Chris Coghlan Florida Malins Jamie Moyer Nate Robertson Philadelphia Phillies

  • David C.

    “Saturday and Sunday involve lefty starters, meaning Coghlan may not see the weekend…”

    You’re forgetting, of course, that Coghlan has a .500 average against Moyer and he KILLS Cole Hamels. Maybe a day or two against his favorite whipping team will help him out.

    Today was pretty bleah although we weren’t expected to win. I’m predicting a great pitching duel tomorrow if Ricky’s up for it. Somehow, I’m getting slugfest vibes from Sunday’s matchup.

    • Michael Jong

      David C,

      I would not put ANY stock in those numbers. He’s faced Hamels 12 times and Moyer 11 times. Chances are the platoon effect far outweighs any perceived matchup-specific situations between Coghs and either of those two pitchers.

      I hope he does well, but research says looking at his opponent-specific splits isn’t going to be predictive.

  • David C.

    All right, then, how about these numbers?

    Jamie Moyer Career vs. RHP- .266/.318/.423 (12697 PA)
    Jamie Moyer Career vs. LHP- .273/.334/.429 (3972 PA)

    Cole Hamels Career vs. RHP- .245/.291/.409 (2443 PA)
    Cole Hamels Career vs. LHP- .240/.299/.425 (636 PA)

    Cole Hamels is almost entirely reliant on his Fastball and Change-Up which explains the slight reverse platoon split. Similarly, Moyer mainly uses a Change-Up and a Cutter (with a very occasional curveball) which both work well against opposite handed batters.

    Granted, Coghlan himself may have a regular platoon split, but…

    • Michael Jong

      David C,

      Good numbers, though I’d prefer to use more defense-independent splits.

      Hamels v. LHB: 23.1% K%, 7.1% UIBB%, 17.0% HR/FB%, 44.7% GB%
      Hamels v. RHB: 22.5% K%, 5.7 UIBB%, 10.7% HR/FB%, 39.4% GB%

      Looks like Hamels gives up the long ball more against lefties, and he also seems a bit more wild. Still you have to regress, but you would expect his platoon split to be a good deal lower than the average left-hander.

      Moyer v. LHB: 15.1% K%, 5.9% UIBB%, 10.6% HR/FB%, 45.0% GB%
      Moyer v. RHB: 14.1% K%, 6.3% UIBB%, 10.5% HR.FB%, 37.5% GB%

      Looking at those numbers, it seems Moyer has a small platoon split in the expected direction. FanGraphs has his career FIP v. lefties and righties as almost identical. He allows fewer hits (BABIP .280 v. righties, .300 v. lefties), but more homers. If anything, he’s even, and the regression to the mean is going to be around 25% (450 PA of the league average vs. his 1877 career PA v. lefties), so he’s more or less who he is.

      In short, they both have smaller than average platoon splits. Your explanation on Hamels is, of course, correct; the change shows a smaller platoon split than something like a slider. This does likely explain his weaker split.