Series Preview: @Philadelphia Phillies

This marks the official start of the division chase for the Florida Marlins, as they open up the season series versus the Philadelphia Phillies.

Florida Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies, April 16-18, Games 11-13

NL East Standings

Tm	W	L	Win%	GB
PHI	7	2	.778	—
FLA	6	4	.600	1.5
ATL	5	4	.556	2.0
WSN	4	5	.444	3.0
NYM	3	6	.333	4.0

Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Five-year Run PF*: 1.03
Five-year HR PF*: 1.09
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 329 ft.
Left-Center: 374
Center Field: 401
Right-Center: 369
Right Field: 330

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

Projected Pitching Matchups

April 16: Anibal Sanchez vs. Roy Halladay
April 17: Ricky Nolasco vs. Jamie Moyer
April 18: Nate Robertson vs. Cole Hamels

ZiPS In-Season Projections

FIP	Win%	Marlins	Date	Reds	Win%	FIP
4.07	.507	Sanchez	April 16	Halladay	.666	2.81
3.52	.577	Nolasco	April 17	Moyer	.421	4.89
4.34	.478	Volstad	April 18	Hamels	.564	3.60

Projected Lineups

Marlins

Lineup	Player	Current wOBA	Proj. wOBA v. RHP	Proj. wOBA v. LHP
1	Chris Coghlan	.159	.343	.311
2	Cameron Maybin	.372	.306	.320
3	Hanley Ramirez	.414	.402	.422
4	Jorge Cantu	.440	.333	.351
5	Dan Uggla	.351	.349	.358
6	John Baker/Ronny Paulino*	.414/.315	.332	.335
7	Cody Ross	.347	.336	.369
8	Gaby Sanchez	.393	.332	.361

*Baker and Paulino are platooning. Projected wOBA vs. RHP is for Baker, vs. LHP is for Paulino.

**Runs/Game totals using estimates of platoons component values and this lineup simulator. Totals are derived as runs/game against only lefties or righties

Notes

– I’ve transitioned from CHONE projections prior to the season to ZiPS in-season projections, figuring that these projections are going to be more applicable to the player going into the future. Some of them do appear to me to be a bit wonky, but I’m running with them nonetheless. Both position players and pitchers have ZiPS in-season projections available.

– I also included current wOBA. I won’t include FIP for a few more weeks, I don’t think that two starts worth of stats is going to show anything but absurd values.

– Chris Coghlan may sit out of the lineup a bit more this weekend. He’s already sitting out tonight’s affair still, recovering from that diving catch made on Wednesday. Saturday and Sunday involve lefty starters, meaning Coghlan may not see the weekend. If so, expect Gaby Sanchez to hit second against the lefties Moyer and Hamels this weekend.

– This is our first series versus the Phillies this year. We split our series last year, and hopefully we’ll have some of the same luck this season.

– Note that we have to face noted Marlins killer Jamie Moyer this series. We will hopefully counter the Moyer effect by using Nate Robertson, who was acquired specifically to tackle tough lefty lineups. He’ll start game 3.

Bold Prediction: Marlins take one of three games.

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