Series Preview: San Diego Padres

After starting off the previous road trip nicely by taking two of three from the Philadelphia Phillies, the Marlins stumbled through Houston and Colorado, losing four of six. Coming back home, we get the unenviable task of facing the hot San Diego Padres. The Marlins should have the edge, however. Let’s preview the series.

San Diego Padres (11-7) @ Florida Marlins, April 26-28, Games 20-22

NL East Standings

Tm W L Win% GB
PHI 11 7 .667
FLA 10 9 .563 1.5
WSN 10 9 .533 1.5
NYM 10 9 .500 1.5
ATL 8 10 .438 3.0

Stadium: Sun Life Stadium
Five-year Run PF*: 0.99
Five-year HR PF*: 0.97
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 330 ft.
Left-Center: 361
Center Field: 404
Right-Center: 361
Right Field: 345

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

Projected Pitching Matchups

April 26: Josh Johnson vs. Mat Latos
April 27: Anibal Sanchez vs. Jon Garland
April 28: Nate Robertson vs. Kevin Correia

ZiPS In-Season Projections

FIP Win% Marlins Date Padres Win% FIP
3.14 .622 Johnson April 26 Latos .511 4.04
4.14 .500 Sanchez April 27 Garland .490 4.23
4.47 .464 Robertson April 28 Correia .540 3.80

Projected Lineups

Lineup Player Current wOBA Proj. wOBA v. RHP Proj. wOBA v. LHP
1 Cameron Maybin .327 .301 .315
2 Chris Coghlan
.182 .339 .312
3 Hanley Ramirez .348 .400 .420
4 Jorge Cantu .360 .333 .351
5 Dan Uggla .418 .356 .365
6 John Baker/Ronny Paulino* .320/.329 .331 .340
7 Cody Ross .268 .329 .362
8 Gaby Sanchez .371 .336 .366

*Baker and Paulino are platooning. Projected wOBA vs. RHP is for Baker, vs. LHP is for Paulino.

Notes

– Chris Coghlan picked up a few hits and walks during the Colorado series, but his overall numbers are still, of course, disappointing. Hopefully he’ll snap out of it soon enough. The Marlins will continue to be patient, but they will let Coghlan bat second until they see him batting better. Coghs still has not gotten an extra-base hit yet.

– While Coghlan is struggling to snap out of a slump, Cody Ross is working through one as well. In 22 PA last week, Ross picked up only three hits (one double), striking out five times. Given the ability of John Baker to get on base directly in front of Ross, this may be the reason why Baker hasn’t crossed home plate as often as a .368 OBP hitter should.

– Nate Robertson makes the third start against the Padres on short rest. Remember Robertson started Game 2 of the Saturday double-header, but was pulled after four innings and 85 pitches of unadulterated awful. Hopefully, he’ll have a better start against a far inferior Padres lineup.

– Jon Garland will make the second start for the Pads. I mention him only because I actually wanted to have the Marlins attract Garland to the team as an inning-eating, back-end starter. Garland has quietly been worth two or more WAR in essentially each season of his career according to FanGraphs, even though he has stuff that could graciously be referred to as “middling.”

Bold Prediction: Marlins take two of three games.

Tags: Chris Coghlan Cody Ross Jon Garland Miami Marlins Nate Robertson San Diego Padres

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