Series Preview: @Washington Nationals

After an ugly series against the San Francisco Giants, we get to visit our best friends (losing-streak busters) in Washington, as the Marlins face the Washington Nationals for three games this weekend.

Florida Marlins @ Washington Nationals, May 7-9, Games 29-31

NL East Standings

Tm W L Win% GB
PHI 17 11 .607
NYM 15 13 .536 2.0
WSN 15 13 .536 2.0
FLA 13 15 .464 4.0
ATL 12 16 .429 5.0

Stadium: Nationals Park
Five-year Run PF*: 1.01
Five-year HR PF*: 0.98
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 337 ft.
Left-Center: 377
Center Field: 402
Right-Center: 372
Right Field: 335

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here; Nationals Park has only two years of data

Projected Pitching Matchups

May 7: Chris Volstad vs. Craig Stammen
May 8: Josh Johnson vs. John Lannan
May 9: Anibal Sanchez vs. Livan Hernandez

ZiPS In-Season Projections

FIP Win% Marlins Date Giants Win% FIP
4.49 .462 Volstad May 7 Stammen .423 4.87
3.07 .631 Johnson May 8 Lannan .441 4.69
3.93 .524 Sanchez May 9 Hernandez .418 4.92

Projected Lineup

Lineup Player Current wOBA Proj. wOBA v. RHP Proj. wOBA v. LHP
1 Chris Coghlan
.205 .338 .311
2 Cameron Maybin .279 .301 .315
3 Hanley Ramirez .402 .406 .427
4 Jorge Cantu .349 .331 .349
5 Dan Uggla .390 .357 .366
6 John Baker/Ronny Paulino* .296/.368 .327 .341
7 Cody Ross .300 .330 .363
8 Gaby Sanchez .345 .332 .361

*Baker and Paulino are platooning. Projected wOBA vs. RHP is for Baker, vs. LHP is for Paulino.


– The Marlins have apparently decided to switch Coghlan and Maybin in the lineup again. At this point, you have to feel as if the team is grasping for straws for a way to look respectable at the top of the lineup. Oddly enough, Fredi Gonzalez apparently did not think too highly of the idea of batting Hanley leadoff again. How about Dan Uggla?

– In case you haven’t kept track of things, the listed third pitcher for the Nationals in this series is indeed former Marlin Livan Hernandez. Currently, Hernandez has 0.99 ERA, stellar but highly anomalous given his junkballer stuff and the fact that he’s walked more hitters than he has struck out. His current 4.62 FIP is entirely due to the fact that he’s allowed only three home runs in 36 1/3 innings pitched (144 BF). I hope we get a chance to beat his junk stuff down, but to his credit, he did shut down our lineup last time we saw him. I just don’t expect that again.

Bold Prediction: Marlins win two of three games

Tags: Cameron Maybin Chris Coghlan Fredi Gonzalez Livan Hernandez Miami Marlins

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