Series Preview: @Chicago Cubs

Update: Here’s the game thread for tonight’s game.

The Marlins will start a three-game set tonight versus the Chicago Cubs to finish off a six-game road swing. After losing two tough games versus the Washington Nationals, hopefully the Marlins can actually win a series. They haven’t won a three-game set since the previous series with Washington. Hopefully the Cubbies, over at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, will be nice hosts and roll over. I doubt it though.

Florida Marlins @ Chicago Cubs (14-18), May 10-12, Games 32-34

NL East Standings

Tm W L Win% GB
PHI 19 12 .613
NYM 17 14 .548 2.0
WSN 17 14 .548 2.0
FLA 14 17 .452 5.0
ATL 13 18 .419 6.0

Stadium: Wrigley Field
Five-year Run PF*: 1.04
Five-year HR PF*: 1.05
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 355 ft.
Left-Center: 368
Center Field: 400
Right-Center: 368
Right Field: 353

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

Projected Pitching Matchups

May 10: Nate Robertson vs. Ted Lilly
May 11: Ricky Nolasco vs. Randy Wells
May 12: Chris Volstad vs. Tom Gorzelanny

ZiPS In-Season Projections

FIP Win% Marlins Date Giants Win% FIP
4.44 .467 Robertson May 7 Lilly .506 4.09
3.57 .567 Nolasco May 8 Wells .501 4.13
4.51 .460 Volstad May 9 Gorzelanny .523 3.94

Projected Lineup

Lineup Player Current wOBA Proj. wOBA v. RHP Proj. wOBA v. LHP
1 Chris Coghlan
.221 .337 .311
2 Cameron Maybin .279 .298 .311
3 Hanley Ramirez .397 .405 .425
4 Jorge Cantu .350 .333 .351
5 Dan Uggla .370 .353 .362
6 John Baker/Ronny Paulino* .287/.358 .326 .347
7 Cody Ross .308 .332 .365
8 Gaby Sanchez .352 .334 .363

*Baker and Paulino are platooning. Projected wOBA vs. RHP is for Baker, vs. LHP is for Paulino.


– I stuck with Chris Coghlan and Cameron Maybin at the top of the lineup, but don’t count on that for too long. The Marlins already opted in two games in the Nationals series to start Bryan Petersen over Cameron Maybin, and the club likely won’t hesitate to go with Brett Carroll over Coghlan against Ted Lilly and Tom Gorzelanny, the two lefties the Cubs are sending in the series. I would expect Carroll to at least get one start in this series, with Petersen getting late-inning PA. Also, expect Maybin and Coghlan to get subbed out defensively in the late innings.

– Did you hear that Carlos Zambrano, former Cubs “ace,” is now in the bullpen serving as one of the team’s set-up men? He hasn’t done awful so far, getting two shutdowns and one meltdown. Still, it’s funny because it’s an awful move.

– Don’t forget that tonight, in about 30 to 40 minutes, the first live open game thread will go up in the Marlin Maniac forums. I’ll be listening to the game all night and will be posting quick-hit thoughts on the thread. If you’re interested in talking to me during the game or asking questions, please feel free to do so. That’s the point of the forums!

Tags: Brett Carroll Bryan Petersen Cameron Maybin Chris Coghlan Miami Marlins

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