Series Preview: New York Mets

The Marlins come home after finishing off the road trip in an acceptable fashion by beating the Chicago Cubs in two of three games. Unfortunately, they’ll be greeted at home by what is typically the worst of the home series of the season, a set against the New York Mets. We get the Mets and their annoying (and overpowering in Sun Life Stadium) fanbase for four important games this weekend.

New York Mets (18-16) @ Florida Marlins, May 13-16, Games 35-38

NL East Standings

Tm W L Win% GB
PHI 20 13 .606
WSN 19 14 .559 1.5
NYM 18 16 .529 2.5
ATL 16 18 .471 4.5
FLA 16 18 .471 4.5

Stadium: Sun Life Stadium
Five-year Run PF*: 0.99
Five-year HR PF*: 0.97
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 330 ft.
Left-Center: 361
Center Field: 404
Right-Center: 361
Right Field: 345

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

Projected Pitching Matchups

May 13: Josh Johnson vs. Johan Santana
May 14: Anibal Sanchez vs. Oliver Perez
May 15: Nate Robertson vs. John Maine
May 16: Ricky Nolasco vs. Jonathan Niese

ZiPS In-Season Projections

FIP Win% Marlins Date Mets Win% FIP
3.10 .627 Johnson May 13 Santana .585 3.43
4.00 .516 Sanchez May 14 Perez .426 4.84
4.43 .468 Robertson May 15 Maine .450 4.60
3.62 .561 Nolasco May 16 Niese .507 4.09

Projected Lineup

Lineup Player Current wOBA Proj. wOBA v. RHP Proj. wOBA v. LHP
1 Chris Coghlan .238 .339 .312
2 Gaby Sanchez .339 .334 .363
3 Hanley Ramirez .375 .402 .422
4 Jorge Cantu .339 .331 .349
5 Dan Uggla .370 .354 .363
6 John Baker/Ronny Paulino* .271/.366 .320 .343
7 Cody Ross .321 .334 .367
8 Brett Carroll

*Baker and Paulino are platooning. Projected wOBA vs. RHP is for Baker, vs. LHP is for Paulino.


– Most indications have shown that Cameron Maybin has at least temporarily lapsed into a bench role, with Brett Carroll taking the majority of the time in right field and Cody Ross moving to center field. I doubt that this is a wise decision by the team, but the club would like to allow Coghlan to stick through his slump but is giving Maybin little leeway. I’ll figure out the Carroll splits later on for the next series, I apologize.

– Running a little short on time right now, so I’ll let my interview with Kerel of On the Black take care of the rest of the notes for the preview.

Bold Prediction: Marlins take three of four games

Tags: Brett Carroll Cameron Maybin Chris Coghlan Miami Marlins New York Mets

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