Series Preview: @Chicago White Sox

It’s interleague play time!

I don’t find it that exciting either, but I will admit that I do not recall the team every playing the Chicago White Sox during interleague play, though I am certain that my brain has just glossed over that detail. Nevertheless, the Marlins will make a visit to U.S. Cellular Field for a three-game set this weekend, with the two weekend games starting at 2:05 pm EST.

Florida Marlins @ Chicago White Sox (16-24), May 21-23, Games 43-45

NL East Standings

Tm W L Win% GB
PHI 25 15 .632
FLA 22 20 .525 4.0
ATL 21 20 .500 4.5
WSN 21 21 .487 5.0
NYM 20 22 .475 6.0

Stadium: U.S. Cellular Field
Five-year Run PF*: 1.03
Five-year HR PF*: 1.12
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 330 ft.
Left-Center: 375
Center Field: 400
Right-Center: 375
Right Field: 335

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

Projected Pitching Matchups

May 21: Ricky Nolasco vs. Mark Buehrle
May 22: Chris Volstad vs. Gavin Gloyd
May 23: Josh Johnson vs. Freddy Garcia

ZiPS In-Season Projections

FIP Win% Marlins Date White Sox Win% FIP
3.62 .561 Nolasco May 21 Buehrle .442 4.68
4.45 .466 Volstad May 22 Floyd .454 4.56
3.00 .641 Johnson May 23 Garcia .397 5.14

Projected Lineup

Lineup Player Current wOBA Proj. wOBA v. RHP Proj. wOBA v. LHP
1 Chris Coghlan
.266 .343 .316
2 Gaby Sanchez .361 .336 .366
3 Hanley Ramirez .377 .400 .420
4 Jorge Cantu .341 .334 .352
5 Dan Uggla .409 .361 .370
6 Ronny Paulino .334 .310 .342
7 Cody Ross .344 .337 .371
8 Wes Helms
.304 .319 .294
9 Cameron Maybin .292 .303 .317

Notes

– Marlins fans take note: Mark Buehrle is not as bad as his FIP suggests. For his career, he has a 4.19 FIP and a 3.84 ERA, and that’s in a good ten years worth of work. There is a good shot that he has some control over an aspect of pitching that FIP does not cover (BABIP, pitching with runners on) that has helped him to his mark, in addition to his supposedly good pitcher defense. That matchup is not as lopsided as it looks.

– Fans watching tonight’s game should be able to get to bed early. Buehrle is a notoriously fast worker. Case in point: he was able to finish his perfect game last season against the Tampa Bay Rays in a shade over two hours (two hours and three minutes, to be exact).

– The Marlins will employ Cantu at DH, as they have for seasons past. This at least signals that they know he is the team’s worst defender. Helms, a decent third base glove, and Sanchez, who has apparently not done well according to the defense metrics so far this year, will man the corners.

Bold Prediction: Marlins win two of three games.

Tags: Chicago White Sox Chris Volstad Freddy Garcia Gavin Floyd Jorge Cantu Josh Johnson Mark Buehrle Miami Marlins Ricky Nolasco Wes Helms

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