Series Preview: Atlanta Braves

The Marlins head back home after a long, 20-game stretch without a rest day. Monday was their first break in a long time, and I’m certain they’ll need all the rest they can get going into this three-game set against the Atlanta Braves. This is the first time this season that the Braves and Fish battled, and it should be a fun series to watch.

Atlanta Braves (23-21) @ Florida Marlins, May 25-27, Games 46-48

NL East Standings

Tm W L Win% GB
PHI 26 17 .605
ATL 23 21 .538 3.5
FLA 23 22 .520 4.0
WSN 23 22 .520 4.0
NYM 22 23 .440 5.0

Stadium: Sun Life Stadium
Five-year Run PF*: 0.99
Five-year HR PF*: 0.97
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 330 ft.
Left-Center: 361
Center Field: 404
Right-Center: 361
Right Field: 345

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

Projected Pitching Matchups

May 25: Anibal Sanchez vs. Kenshin Kawakami
May 26: Nate Robertson vs. Tommy Hanson
May 27: Ricky Nolasco vs. Tim Hudson

ZiPS In-Season Projections

FIP Proj. FIP Win% Marlins Date Braves Win% Proj. FIP FIP
3.08 3.80 .540 Sanchez May 25 Kawakami .511 4.04 4.60
5.15 4.51 .460 Robertson May 26 Hanson .577 3.49 3.24
4.29 3.66 .556 Nolasco May 27 Hudson .519 3.97 4.36

Projected Lineup

Lineup Player Current wOBA Proj. wOBA v. RHP Proj. wOBA v. LHP
1 Chris Coghlan .246 .337 .311
2 Gaby Sanchez .362 .347 .367
3 Hanley Ramirez .370 .400 .420
4 Jorge Cantu .364 .336 .354
5 Dan Uggla .397 .359 .368
6 Ronny Paulino .351 .313 .346
7 Cody Ross .363 .342 .377
8 Cameron Maybin .283 .302 .316

Notes

– I added current-season FIP to the pitching matchups section in addition to the ZiPS in-season projections. Since I added current wOBA, I figured it’s a good idea to show both measures of performance. If there’s anything you guys would rather see, such as xFIP or SIERA, let me know. Also, tell me if the table gets a bit cluttered due to the changes.

– Cody Ross has a recent hot streak and has brought his average over .300. I don’t have to tell you that that is not going to stick. Still, this is typically what Cody does during the season; he starts very cold, then has a run of two weeks which brings him right to where he would typically project, and then his home runs and outs take hold and keep him there. I’m hoping to see more power from Ross, and I think it was a good sign to see him hit two homers in the Chicago White Sox series (even if they were off of Freddy Garcia).

– I can’t wait to see Jason Heyward. He’s hurt right now, but may play in the series.

– Check out my interview with Scott Humphries of Tomahawk Talk. There I answered questions on the Marlins, the Braves, and the NL East in general. I’d like to thank Scott for letting me air my mind on his site, and I wish his team the best of luck (in losing two out of three).

Bold Prediction: Marlins win two out of three games.

Tags: Anibal Sanchez Atlanta Braves Cody Ross Jason Heyward Miami Marlins Nate Robertson Ricky Nolasco

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