Series Preview: @Los Angeles Dodgers

After a quite a few weeks off of doing previews, I’ve returned to working on them. Hopefully you Maniacs are getting something out of the previews and are liking our odds this week on our west coast trip, which starts off in Los Angeles against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Florida Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers (45-36), July 5-7, Games 82-84

NL East Standings

Tm W L Win% GB
ATL 48 34 .585
NYM 46 36 .561 2.0
PHI 42 38 .525 5.0
FLA 38 43 .469 9.5
WSN 36 47 .434 12.5

Stadium: Dodgers Stadium
Five-year Run PF*: 0.97
Five-year HR PF*: 1.00
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 330 ft.
Left-Center: 375
Center Field: 400
Right-Center: 375
Right Field: 330

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

Projected Pitching Matchups

July 5: Nate Robertson vs. John Ely
July 6: Chris Volstad vs. Vicente Padilla
July 7: Josh Johnson vs. Hiroki Kuroda

ZiPS In-Season Projections

FIP Proj. FIP Win% Marlins Date Dodgers Win% Proj. FIP FIP
4.39 4.43 .468 Robertson July 5 Ely .383 5.29* 3.59
4.05 4.43 .468 Volstad July 6 Padilla .443 4.67 5.04
2.39 2.87 .658 Johnson July 7 Kuroda .565 3.59 3.57

Projected Lineup

Lineup Player Current wOBA Proj. wOBA v. RHP Proj. wOBA v. LHP
1 Chris Coghlan .343 .354 .326
2 Gaby Sanchez .379 .350 .373
3 Hanley Ramirez .383 .401 .417
4 Jorge Cantu .324 .329 .347
5 Dan Uggla .369 .355 .368
6 Cody Ross .346 .335 .369
7 Mike Stanton
.266
8 Ronny Paulino .333 .311 .346

Notes

- I updated my splits spreadsheet and attained up-to-date platoon splits for the Marlins starters. Thatmeans that these latest splits include additional PA and performance from this year as well as years past. It did not change anyone significantly, but I figured I owed the due diligence. I’ll be updating the stats for the splits on a biweekly basis, though again, I suspect it would not change much. Mike Stanton will not have updates on platoon data for a little while. Finally, I’m currently using Gaby Sanchez’ actual major league data for platoon splits, rather than minor league wOBA from John Herold and minor league PA. It made no difference, as he had almost the exact same split, though the split is now regressed a bit more.

- I’ve got some talking I’d like to do about Cody Ross and his lack of power. I’ll be getting to him tomorrow.

- The Marlins are 9.5 games out of the division, which means it is safe to say that we are mostly out of contention. Baseball Prospectus has projected us for 81 wins exactly, based on our in-season performance (adjusted for strength of schedule, sequencing, and other aspects), putting our playoff odds at a meager 6.3%. At the time of the writing of the Trade Deadline Primer, we were at 9.2%, and even then it was questionable whether we should stick with current core (you can read more by ordering the Primer when it comes out).

- It’s a good thing we have Josh Johnson pitching in the third game against Hiroki Kuroda. Last time he pitched against us, he went eight innings, struck out seven, walked one, and got 15 ground balls. Of course, that doesn’t mean he’ll dominate us again, but he is the team’s third best pitcher, and having our best guy on the mound against him maximizes our shot at winning.

Bold Prediction: Marlins win two out of three games.

Topics: Cody Ross, Gaby Sanchez, Hiroki Kuroda, Josh Johson, Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins, Mike Stanton

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