Series Preview: @Arizona Diamondbacks


After successfully taking two out of three from the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Marlins finish off the “first half” of the year with four games against the Arizona Diamondbacks, owners of the second worst record in the National League. Let’s see how the matchups lie.

Florida Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers (32-53), July 8-11, Games 85-88

NL East Standings

Tm W L Win% GB
ATL 50 35 .588
NYM 47 38 .553 3.0
PHI 43 40 .518 6.0
FLA 40 44 .476 9.5
WSN 38 47 .447 12.0

Stadium: Chase Field
Five-year Run PF*: 1.06
Five-year HR PF*: 1.05
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 330 ft.
Left-Center: 374
Center Field: 407
Right-Center: 374
Right Field: 334

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

Projected Pitching Matchups

July 8: Anibal Sanchez vs. Rodrigo Lopez
July 9: Ricky Nolasco vs. Dan Haren
July 10: Nate Robertson vs. Ian Kennedy
July 11: Alejandro Sanabia vs. Barry Enright

ZiPS In-Season Projections

FIP Proj. FIP Win% Marlins Date Dodgers Win% Proj. FIP FIP
3.47 3.92 .525 Sanchez July 8 Lopez .445 4.65 5.06
4,52 3.81 .538 Nolasco July 9 Haren .595 3.35 3.84
4.43 4.43 .468 Robertson July 10 Kennedy .470 4.41 4.85
Sanabia July 11 Enright .404 5.06 5.10

Projected Lineup

Lineup Player Current wOBA Proj. wOBA v. RHP Proj. wOBA v. LHP
1 Chris Coghlan .332 .346 .319
2 Gaby Sanchez .369 .342 .365
3 Hanley Ramirez .377 .399 .415
4 Jorge Cantu .321 .325 .343
5 Dan Uggla .379 .362 .375
6 Cody Ross .345 .336 .370
7 Ronny Paulino .320 .307 .341
8 Mike Stanton .296

Notes

- The matchup of this series is most certainly Game 2, where two of the best pitchers at avoiding walks go toe-to-toe. If K/BB is your thing, the Dan Haren – Ricky Nolasco matchup will feature the third-best (4.96) and sixth-best (4.63) K/BB ratios among starters this year. Ironically, both pitchers are underperforming because of the same reason: home runs are killing them. Haren has allowed 1.39 HR/9 IP, while Nolasco has given up 1.74.

- I was unable to find any projections for Alejandro Sanabia, who will start in place of Chris Volstad this week.

- The Diamondbacks are one of the few teams in the league that can sport a bullpen as bad or worse than ours. The D’backs lead all of baseball in FanGraphs’/Tango’s Meltdowns stat (measures an amount of bullpen appearances with -0.06 or more WPA) with 51. The Marlins are unsurprisingly second in that department with 46. However, the D’backs are also the only team in baseball right now with more Meltdowns than Shutdowns (the equivalent WPA, but on the positive side).

Bold Prediction: Marlins take three of four games.

Tags: Alejandro Sanabia Arizona Diamondbacks Chris Volstad Dan Haren Miami Marlins Ricky Nolasco

Comments are closed.