Marlin Maniac » 2010 » September

The curious departure of Chris Leroux

John Herold — Thu, 30 Sep 2010 20:32:26 +0000

(Editor’s Note: John had this article ready in a timely fashion after we lost Chris Leroux to the Pirates. I’m posting it now because it is interesting, but my apologies for having it be untimely. -MJ

On Monday, the Marlins designated … [visit site to read more]

Marlins finally hit injury woes

Michael Jong — Wed, 29 Sep 2010 17:32:07 +0000

The latest Marlin to go down to injury is Hanley Ramirez, who has been shut down for the remainder of the year after attempting to struggle through an elbow injury for much of September. With the season almost at a close, this caps … [visit site to read more]

Marlins sent to the AFL

John Herold — Tue, 28 Sep 2010 18:46:59 +0000

(Editor’s Note: Now that the minor league seasons have wrapped up, resident Marlins prospect maven John Herold is back to analyze and break down our youngsters. He’ll be dropping by occasionally with his thoughts.)

The AFL rosters were … [visit site to read more]

Logan Morrison patiently waits to strike

Michael Jong — Mon, 27 Sep 2010 18:55:27 +0000

More and more people are noticing the amazing first 256 PA of Logan Morrison. FanGraphs prospect maven Bryan Smith responded to a question in today’s prospect chat asking about Morrison and how he compares to other power-light first basemen such as Lyle Overbay and James Loney by saying this:

Bryan Smith: Better than good, [his rookie season has] been great. It’s unfair to compare him to those guys, because he has better on-base skills than either. He’s what those guys aspire to be.

Though Overbay and Loney are not the most illustrious names in baseball, both are players who have served as starters in the past for teams. However, both are, as Smith mentions, way out of Morrison’s league in terms of plate discipline and eye for the strike zone.

Inspired by that response by Smith, I decided to take a look at Morrison’s plate discipline numbers as shown by data provided by BIS to FanGraphs. Morrison has walked at a 15+% clip in his time in the majors in 2010, and it has a lot to do with how patient and discerning his eye at the plate is.

The Numbers

Here are the numbers compared to the career rates for the two players mentioned above, Overbay and Loney.

Player proj.	OSwing%	ZSwing%	Contact%	BB%	K%
Morrison	20.2%	59.3%	81.5%	15.2%	17.2%
Overbay	18.8%	66.8%	79.0%	10.5%	18.5%
Loney	26.4%	63.9%	87.2%	7.1%	12.7%

It’s quite clear just from a glance at this table that Loney does not even belong in this comparison; his game is more predicated towards making consistent contact rather than having an eye for the strike zone, as evidenced by the high OSwing% (swing% on pitches outside the zone). The comparison with Overbay, on the other hand, seems a bit more apt. Overbay has been more selective over the course of his career, but has swung a lot more when the ball has been in the zone. Morrison has been more passive at the plate, which has resulted in fewer strikeouts and more walks at the expense of balls in play. Overbay’s league-averge(ish) swing rate inside the zone is contributing to keeping his walks down as compared to Morrison.

… [visit site to read more]

Contract Crowdsourcing: Uggla results and reaction

Michael Jong — Fri, 24 Sep 2010 23:15:55 +0000

Though I only have 23 votes for the Contract Crowdsourcing of Dan Uggla and his potential future extension, I went ahead and decided to close balloting in terms of results and analysis. If you guys would like, you may continue to vote for Uggla’s years and annual average salary (in millions), but this article reflects the votes that I have received so far.

Part of the reasoning for closing is the very timely article by the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson regarding some of the offseason moves on which the Marlins will decide after September. Principle among these decisions is the potential Uggla extension, and Jackson has stated the initial numbers both sides have favored:

• Uggla’s representation wants a deal similar to Hanley Ramirez’s six-year, $70 million contract because Uggla (.281, 31 homers, 96 RBI) has outperformed Ramirez (.301, 21, 76) this season. Uggla has asked for five years in the $58 million range, about $11.6 million per year.

The Marlins are offering less money (barely over $8 million per year) and fewer years (three is their preference).

Ponder the numbers for a second, then consider what 23 intelligent Marlins fans from both MM and our fellow Fish blog FishStripes voted for as the most likely outcome. Here were the results of the crowdsourcing survey:

Average years: 3.4 years
Average AAV: $10.3M
Median years: 4 years
Median AAV: $10M

Std Dev years: 0.72 years
Std Dev AAV: $3.22M

I did a trimmed mean, taking out up to the highest and lowest three values (there were at least three values in the survey which I felt were blatant outliers in terms of contract offers) yielded similar values of around 3.4 years and $10M annually. Don’t read into that standard deviation for Uggla’s contract, as that was entirely done by a few errant votes; trimming the top and bottom two results yields a standard deviation of just under $2M AAV, which seems like decent agreement.

What does this mean, and how does this stack up against the first quoted numbers that we have heard with regards to this discussion?

… [visit site to read more]