A couple weeks ago, I asked the Palm Beach Post’s Joe Capozzi via Twitter about the Marlins’ insurance plan with regards to the potential Chris Coghlan problem and whether Scott Cousins wouldn’t be a better option in center field than having Coghlan move to center and Matt Dominguez play third base. The response I read was, to be honest, a bit ridiculous. Capozzi retorted that putting Cousins out there would be dependent on whether he could put up a strong enough bat for the majors.

Isn’t that the exact reason why we’re concerned about Dominguez starting at third base in 2011? How can this be overlooked so easily? Yes, Dominguez is likely defensively better at third base than Cousins is at center field, but how can this cloud the potential gap between Cousins and Dominguez at the plate? Well, I figured that, rather than speculating about how strong each of their bats were, we could take a look at a projection and estimate the potential differences. We can use the ZiPS projections by Dan Szymborski to find out just how different these two players are.

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I read an article recently that proposed moving Mike Stanton to center field. It said that he had betters numbers in center than right when playing in the Minor Leagues. Is it a possibility that he could play center field this year?
– Steve M., Fredericksburg, Va.

Steve M, was that my article? Because if so, then I have been mentioned in a Joe Frisaro inbox piece! Yes!

Nevertheless, this question deserves a serious response. When I used the scouting reports of the Fans Scouting Report, I got that the numbers would favor moving Chis Coghlan to center field over Mike Stanton, not because Stanton would be a worse center fielder, but because the combination of having Stanton in center and Coghlan in right field was worse than having Coghlan in center and Stanton in right. Having said that, the FSR did not take into account the fact that we have about a year and half worth of UZR/DRS/other defensive statistics data that says he is a below average fielder and that he is coming off a medial meniscus injury that required surgery.

If you recognize that Stanton is the best athlete of the team’s current outfield, it would only make logical sense to move him to the most difficult position. But Joe Frisaro sees otherwise:

[Stanton's] body is still maturing. Say he packs on another 10 pounds. It would not be ideal for him physically to roam center field. With more ground to cover in center, that would mean more wear and tear on his body. Yes, he may be able to play the position well. But he’s had some nagging injuries in the past, namely his shoulder and back. I’ll take Stanton playing right field and getting 600 plate appearances rather than looking for him to be Willie Mays flagging down balls on the warning track at the 434-foot mark at Sun Life Stadium.

No offense to Frisaro, but this answer felt completely incoherent. Shouldn’t the club be looking to maximize Stanton everywhere? I get what he means by making sure he isn’t injured over the course of a season trying to cover center field, but shouldn’t the same concern be given to Coghlan, who has suffered a more serious injury more recently? I think it is ridiculous to ignore Coghlan’s knee injury and bring up supposedly nagging shoulder and back injuries for Stanton as a reason why he shouldn’t play center field. Right now, he can play the position, and if in the future he fills out and bulks up for power, he can shift back to his more natural right field position. But right now, he’s the best athlete in the outfield, and there is no reason why he shouldn’t at least get reps there to see if he can handle the position.

The truth is that the Marlins are avoiding the question of Coghlan in center field. They are going into the season thinking he is the only option available when they should have brought in more insurance to make sure they were not caught in a predicament in case the plan doesn’t work. Every answer I have read from Frisaro or the Marlins front office and coaches says that the team “believes” in Coghlan and that he is athletic enough to handle the position. They said his conversion to left field was so smooth that they foresee no issues with him moving to center. They are glossing over the fact that he is coming off an injury and that no one outside the organization believes that this is going to work. Three or four weeks into the season, we could see the Marlins panicking about not having an actual center fielder on their team.

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Obviously, this isn’t a Rays blog, but these moves represent the sort of sound, intelligent work a cash-strapped team like the Rays should make to fill in their roster. In fact, I only wished the Marlins made similar moves to make their team better, but only recently have the Fish made these types of moves. The Rays will have a payroll of around $40M, and yet their team looks great compared to the Marlins and their payroll of approximately $58M, the highest mark since 2005. How have the Rays done this, and how can the Marlins capitalize on that process? Let’s look at some of the different things the Rays have done to maintain success and what the Marlins can emulate.

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