2011 Marlins Season Preview: Optimized Batting Lineups

Earlier today, I showed the projected platoon splits for the Marlins for the 2011 season. The cool thing about projecting not only overall performance but splits is that we can use that information to build optimized lineups following the rules laid out by Tom Tango, MGL, and Andy Dolphin in The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball. These lineups are designed to get the most runs out of a given set of players based on the advantages inherent in any one lineup spot.

As a reminder, here’s The Book’s basic rule for lineup building:

The Book says:Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2, and #4 slots. Your fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality.

There are a few additional guidelines that I can explain if they come up in building the Marlins’ 2011 lineups, but this is your essential set of guidelines. Your three best hitters should be at the first, second, and fourth slots because the first two slots get the most plate appearances (maximizing your best hitters with the most opportunities) and the fourth slot sees the most runners on base (maximizing your best power hitters). Your third and fifth slots are more or less interchangeable, and your sixth through ninth slots should essentially go in order. Having said that, what should our lineups look like, based on the platoon splits we projected earlier today? Let’s start with the lineup versus righties.

Lineup vs. RHP

The lineup the Marlins with which the Marlins are planning on opening is actually pretty close to ideal versus righties. Outside of not utilizing the excellence that is Logan Morrison in the second slot, the Fish are pretty much opening with the team’s best lineup against righties. Here are some thoughts:

– Hanley Ramirez is best utilized in the cleanup spot, as he has the second best power numbers on the team and is a better hitter against righties than Mike Stanton, who according to ZiPS should be no slouch either. I have no major concerns with Stanton in terms of grounding into double plays, as Stanton only grounded in double plays in nine percent of his opportunities last season despite hitting grounders on 43 percent of his balls in play. I suspect he’ll hit more and more fly balls as his career progresses, further limiting those double play problems.

– If I had to write a lineup for everyday use (that is, I chose not to optimize my lineups versus lefties and righties), this would be the lineup I would write up that remained as close as possible to the real lineup that Edwin Rodriguez is likely to throw out there. This seems like a completely reasonable lineup for everyday use for the Fish.

Lineup vs. LHP

Now this lineup seems drastically different than anything we’d expect to see on Opening Day, but it does take into account the performances of players that we would expect to see against left-handed pitching. Platoon splits matter, and we would expect some players to perform significantly worse against lefties than against righties.

– Morrison and Chris Coghlan are the big losers here, while Stanton and Gaby Sanchez are the big winners. Coghlan should be rightfully placed lower in the order, though I suspect that batting him ahead of Infante would be just fine if you’d like to see that more aesthetic look. As Coghlan’s career moves forward, I’d expect to see him display more of an even platoon split that would allow him not to get buried in the lineup when facing lefties.

– Morrison drops back to fifth, but I could see him at third ahead of John Buck. The third slot usually sees more double play opportunities however, and though Morrison avoided the twin killing last season (GIDP in only seven percent of opportunities), he has more of a ground ball profile than Buck has had of late, so I suspect Buck will avoid those double plays a bit better.

– I like Sanchez at the second spot behind a leadoff Hanley. I enjoy Ramirez’s game at leadoff, since he is our best non-Emilio Bonifacio baserunner and can help the guys behind him to avoid double plays with his superior baserunning and base stealing. Sanchez’s approach is fitting for a second slot hitter in that he can draw a decent number of walks and has good overall plate discipline. And let’s face it, Stanton was born to cleanup in the majors.

– Note how Omar Infante is batting sixth in both of these lineups. This is absolutely correct; he simply is not good enough to hit at the top of the order, where he would only be taking plate appearances away from more talented hitters like Morrison. There is an argument that says he should bat decently higher up in the lineup against lefties, but this would be my personal preference for his batting position.

Now Maniacs, tell me what you think about these lineups! Keep in mind that any changes would not add much more than one win to the team over an unoptimized lineup, and as a I mentioned, the Marlins’ projected everyday batting order isn’t all that far off from the one we’re using for righties. Still, tell me what you all think!