Record: 84 – 78, 3rd Place

Not much change in the overall standing of the Marlins despite overall dramatic changes by the team since the end of 2010. While my projections pegged them very optimistically at 88 wins, I suggest that that probably won’t happen. You can read more about what I think about the team’s overall record here.

Best Performance: Hanley Ramirez

There should be no doubt that, once again, Hanley Ramirez will be the Marlins’ best player come the end of the 2011 season. Simply put, Ramirez is one of the best five players in all of baseball and one of the few players in the league talented enough to challenge Albert Pujols for the crown of MVP in the National League. Is he challenged defensively? Perhaps, though he is playing the most challenging position defensively in baseball. Can he hit? Absolutely, and last season’s struggles simply don’t do him justice talent-wise. I have him projected for a 6-win season this year, and with some improved defense I would not be surprised if he put up an even better performance. And it can’t hurt to hear that he wants to be more of a leader this year too, though I have my obvious doubts.

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With the Marlins (and Marlin Maniac) winding down their “season preview” in preparation for the start of the regular season, the team is down to just a few spots left in the battle for starting positions are roster spots. The team is currently deciding on either Donnie Murphy or Emilio Bonifacio for their vacant third base position, with the team seemingly out of the running for any outside options. Also, the Fish are deciding between three pitchers  (Burke Badenhop, Edward Mujica, and Brian Sanches) for their final two bullpen spots.

The Maniac knows which of these guys should take up these spots, and hopefully the Marlins follow suit. Here’s how I handicap this race:

Third Base: Donnie Murphy

Of the two options, Murphy appears to be the more optimistic choice. The projection systems are mixed on Murphy’s results, with ZiPS firmly in the negative corner while PECOTA and CAIRO see a more optimistic outlook. No one is mixed on Bonifacio and his ability at the plate; the reviews are negative all throughout. With Murphy, we at least have the potential for a strong season given his minor league track record, though I am skeptical of his low-walk, high-power skillset in the minors. Bonifacio offers no upside, as I highly doubt he’ll ever develop his game; essentially, Boni has Murphy’s skillset at the plate but with speed instead of power, and we all know which of the two would be more preferable in the majors.

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OK, before any of us get our panties in a bunch because of the poor ranking, especially from a group of writers whom I respect a good deal, let’s take a look at the criteria involved in the organizational rankings.

Present Talent – 30 percent
Financial Resources – 30 percent
Baseball Operations – 25 percent
Future Talent – 15 percent

The only area that isn’t necessary to put a winning roster on the field is a team’s minor league system, which is why it was the easy call for the least important of the four sections. Developing players from within is a great way to make up for deficiencies in other areas, but teams can win without a heavy emphasis on prospects. With a large payroll and a front office that targets the right veterans to acquire, a team can consistently reload their big league roster each winter, essentially using the other 29 Major League teams as their farm system of choice.

The other three areas are all pretty vital. The baseball operations department got the lowest weight of the three areas in part due to correct assertion that it’s the most subjective variable to judge. While we can make some reliable claims about how different teams operate, and make some inferences about others based on things they’ve said or done, it’s harder to know the internal processes of an organization than it is to project their future revenue streams or to evaluate the roster they’ve put on the field. There is still a strong need for a quality staff, ranging from the front office to coaches on down to scouts and player development officials, but this area can be tricky to evaluate, so it gets a lower weighting than it otherwise might if there were more objective ways to measure the skill of various organizations in this regard.

Essentially, there are four things that are going into these rankings. Here’s how the Marlins graded out in each category:

Major League Talent – 77.22 (19th)
Minor League Talent – 75.00 (t-20th)
Financial Resources – 62.00 (30th)
Baseball Operations – 79.44 (17th)
Overall Rating – 72.88 (27th)

Don’t worry much about the rankings, because it’s the numbers that are ultimately important. One look at the weighting system and it’s clear where the Marlins took a dive; the team’s financial resources and ownership played a huge role in how poorly the club ranked. The truth is that we can quibble about how badly the future or minor league talent was ranked (tied for 20th surprisingly rates pretty well given the minor league system’s poor state of affairs) or the present talent’s rankings (consider that the Milwaukee Brewers, who ended up ranked 22nd overall, had a present talent score of 77.73 and ranked 15th, the Marlins score isn’t bad either), no one can quibble with how poorly the Marlins generally ranked in financial resources. No Marlins fan would stand up and defend Jeffrey Loria and how he has treated the organization in terms of financial backing, so it’s understandable that the Marlins would be ranked so lowly on the totem pole based on that aspect alone.

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