Marlin Maniac » 2011 » April

Series Preview: @Cincinnati Reds

Michael Jong — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 22:21:02 +0000

Coming off one of the most successful home stands in recent memory, the Florida Marlins are heading out on an NL Central trip, stopping off first to meet the Cincinnati Reds before heading out to see the St. Louis Cardinals. Of course, the Reds are the defending NL Central champs and boast some excellent young players who are locked up long-term. To some extent, they resemble the Marlins and how they have built this current 2011 incarnation.

Florida Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds (13-12), April 29-May 1, Games 24-26

NL East Standings

Tm	W	L	Win%	GB
PHI	16	8	.667	–
FLA	15	8	.652	0.5
ATL	13	13	.500	4.0
WSN	11	13	.458	5.0
NYM	11	14	.440	5.5

Stadium: Great American Ballpark
Five-year Run PF*: 1.03
Five-year HR PF*: 1.10
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 329 ft.
Left-Center: 379
Center Field: 404
Right-Center: 370
Right Field: 325

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

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Fish Cap: Marlins pen falters, prevents sweep of Dodgers

Michael Jong — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 19:32:27 +0000

After the heroics of Omar Infante on Monday for the first game of the series, the Marlins split the remaining games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, completing an excellent homestand with a slightly disappointing loss. In between the first and the last game, the Fish got a surprisingly good performance from Chris Volstad, who put up his first strong start of the season.

Series Hero: Chris Coghlan (0.546 WPA)
Series Goat: John Buck (-0.332 WPA)
Impressed by: Chris Volstad (7 IP, 2 R, 5 K, 1 BB, 0 HR)
Depressed by: Clay Hensley (1 IP, 0 R, 0 K, 3 BB, 0 HR)

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Josh Johnson and home / road splits

Michael Jong — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 16:38:10 +0000

Recently, Jeff Sullivan of Basbeall Nation and Lookout Landing fame had this to say about Marlins ace Josh Johnson:

osh Johnson is most definitely an underrated young pitcher. I don’t think there’s any questioning the notion that his playing in Florida has been an obstacle to his getting the attention his results would warrant. But elite? I’m not yet convinced.

Why is he not convinced? Sun Life Stadium.

The ability’s all there, but I’ll need to see him show it in more than one ballpark.

Essentially, there seems to be something of an effect on strikeouts in Sun Life Stadium, and that effect may be inflating strikeouts for Johnson above his supposed true talent level. This effect, which seems to be real based not only on this 2008 David Gassko study but with subsequent work on StatCorner showing similar numbers, is probably positively altering the perception of our pitching staff as a result, and Sullivan thinks that it has helped to make Josh Johnson a bit overrated among those who say he’s vastly underrated (what a mouthful).

Well, Craig over at Fish Stripes vehemently disagrees for various reasons. Here are some of his concerns that he noted.

And why wouldn’t he rack up big numbers in the park he is most familiar with? Should he be penalized because others haven’t learned to take advantaged of their home parks?

Another thing: when did strikeout rates become a litmus test for being an elite pitcher?

Jeff continues on in the article and brings up career FIP at home and on the road, never taking into account that JJ’s career numbers start when he was 21 years-old or the fact he is now 27 and healthy. Weighing every year the same is a fallacy.

This sounds like a heated argument, one into which I should probably jump in, being both a “stats guy” and a diehard Marlins fan. What follows is my initial digging into this issue; I do not know if this is anything conclusive or if it is a start to any major analysis, but it is something to look at and wonder. I’m going to present the statistics here and discuss my first impressions after looking at the stats.

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Fish Bites

Michael Jong — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 18:44:17 +0000

Coming off a good week for the Marlins, let’s discuss some of the best links regarding the Fish from this week.

- The Marlins are thinking a visit site to read more]

Quick Hits: Marlins / Dodgers preview with Lasorda’s Lair

Michael Jong — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 22:44:32 +0000

As I promised, Kenny Shulsen of Lasorda’s Lair and I went ahead and did a quick three-question segment with each other as a preview to the current Marlins / Los Angeles Dodgers series. Kenny was unable to get his answers to me in time for the series preview post, but he was gracious enough to send them anyway, and he had a few questions for me as well with regards to the Fish.

—–

First off, here are my three questions and his answers.

1. What do you see as the biggest difference between 2011 Matt Kemp and the 2010 version?

He lost about 15 pounds in the off-season and he is clearly motivated by last years disappointing season. He has spent a lot of time with new first base coach Davey Lopes and seems much more focused on the field. His pitch recognition is also much better as he is finally laying off of breaking balls in the dirt. Most of all he just seems to be enjoying himself on the field again.

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