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Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers

The Marlins come home after a disappointing set of games against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The first set of people to meet us at Sun Life Stadium? Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, and the rest of the Milwaukee Brewers as they come to town for a three-game set over the weekend. There are some offensive powerhouses and some good pitchers playing this weekend, so it should be a great three games.

Live Chat, Friday 7 pm, Marlins vs. Brewers here

Milwaukee Brewers (30-26) @ Florida Marlins, June 3-6, Games 55-58

NL East Standings

Tm W L Win% GB
PHI 34 22 .607
FLA 31 23 .574 2.0
ATL 31 26 .544 3.5
NYM 26 30 .464 8.0
WSN 25 31 .446 9.0

Stadium: Sun Life Stadium
Five-year Run PF*: 1.01
Five-year HR PF*: 0.97
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 330 ft.
Left-Center: 361
Center Field: 404
Right-Center: 361
Right Field: 345

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

Projected Pitching Matchups

June 3: Ricky Nolasco vs. Randy Wolf
June 4: Chris Volstad vs. Yovani Gallardo
June 5: Anibal Sanchez vs. Chris Narveson
June 6: TBD vs. Zack Greinke

ZiPS In-Season Projections

ERA Proj. FIP Win% Marlins Date Brewers Win% Proj. FIP ERA
3.82 3.25 .608 Nolasco June 3 Wolf .501 4.13 3.43
5.91 4.32 .480 Volstad June 4 Gallardo .603 3.29 3.89
2.57 3.34 .596 Sanchez June 5 Narveson .511 4.04 4.68
TBD June 6 Greinke .671 2.77 5.29

Projected Lineup

Lineup Player Current wOBA Proj. wOBA v. RHP Proj. wOBA v. LHP
1 Chris Coghlan .293 .343 .310
2 Omar Infante .260 .308 .318
3 Logan Morrison .416 .376 .350
4 Gaby Sanchez .394 .351 .376
5 Mike Stanton .392 .356 .373
6 Greg Dobbs .371 .326 .295
7 John Buck .289 .310 .336
8 Emilio Bonifacio .315 .300 .300

Quick Hits

Today’s Quick Hits interview comes from Colin Bennett of FanSided’s Reviewing the Brew. I asked him a few questions and he shot me a few answers, and vice versa. Here are my questions in quotes and his answers.

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1. Prince Fielder has dropped his strikeout and walk rates (dramatic in the case of his strikeouts). How is he doing this?

1. I really think Prince is just being more patient this year. He’s not necessarily getting anything more to hit this year with Braun doing so well, but he doesn’t appear to be swinging from his heels as much. It looks like Prince is more focused on just making solid contact this year as opposed to trying to push every ball over the fence, and it’s making a big difference. Having a contract year with a lot of attention never hurts, either.

2. Both Zack Greinke and Yovani Gallardo are underperforming their expectations. Where did Gallardo’s strikeouts go and when do you think Greinke’s brilliant strikeout and walk rates will catch up to his awful ERA?

2. The pitching situation in Milwaukee this year is both brilliant and frustrating. Honestly for every pitcher in Milwaukee’s roster it’s just the one bad inning that we need to avoid, or at least learn to overcome. Yovani’s K’s are still there – he’s got 60 so far this year – he just isn’t working the corners as well as we are accustomed to. For Greinke I’m confident that as the season progresses we’ll see his numbers even out. I’ve been impressed with him so far I just think he gets in his own head when things start to go wrong (not that that’s earth-shattering news for Zack).

3. What is one thing you’ll be watching for in the matchup between the Fish and the Brew Crew?

3. Right now both teams are having real trouble with situational batting. Milwaukee is hitting .236 with RISP, and the Marlins are at .237. Obviously in this series something has to give, so it’ll be interesting to see who’s bats get hot first. I’m definitely going to be looking at Hanley Ramirez coming off his injury, and I think Casey McGehee needs a good series desperately and Florida will be a good place to start. I’ll say one thing – we are in for some good baseball this weekend.

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I’d like to thank Colin for his cooperation. If you want answers to three burning questions about the Marlins in this series, check out the series preview over at Reviewing the Brew.

Notes

- I’m going under the assumption that Hanley Ramirez will not be playing this series, and indeed it does seem that way. The official word today is that there is no official word until Monday. I’m telling you folks, this is highly unlikely to be an elaborate hoax. He’s hurt.

- Here’s my pick for pitching matchup of the series:

Player IP K% BB% GB% ERA FIP
Johnson 73 2/3 24.9 7.7 46.1 2.57 3.01
Narveson 59 2/3 21.5 8.5 43.2 4.68 3.26

Narveson can’t seem to buy a break despite some excellent peripheral numbers, while Sanchez is, well, our hidden ace. It should be a fun Sunday afternoon.

Bold Prediction: Marlins win one of four games.

Topics: Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers

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