Series Preview: @Seattle Mariners


The Marlins are supposed to be continuing their “home stand” tonight with a three-game set against the Seattle Mariners. Unfortunately, the band U2 got in the way and kicked the Marlins out of town, which just goes to show you where the priorities of Sun Life Stadium lie. Nevertheless, the Fish will still have a three-game set against the Mariners, but it will be a “home game” away from home and at Safeco Field. Oh, and we’re still losing plenty right now.

By the way, no live chat tonight! I don’t do them on the West Coast trips on account of it being way too late to be discussing disappointing Marlins baseball. Look out for one next week.

Florida Marlins @ Seattle Mariners (37-38), June 24-26, Games 76-78

NL East Standings

Tm W L Win% GB
PHI 47 29 .618
ATL 43 33 .566 4.0
WSN 38 37 .507 8.5
NYM 37 38 .495 9.5
FLA 33 42 .440 13.5

Stadium: Safeco Field
Five-year Run PF*: 0.97
Five-year HR PF*: 0.95
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 331 ft.
Left-Center: 390
Center Field: 405
Right-Center: 385
Right Field: 326

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

Projected Pitching Matchups

June 24: Ricky Nolasco vs. Felix Hernandez
June 25: Chris Volstad vs. Jason Vargas
June 26: Anibal Sanchez vs. Doug Fister

ZiPS In-Season Projections

ERA Proj. FIP Win% Marlins Date Mariners Win% Proj. FIP ERA
4.48 3.38 .591 Nolasco June 17 Hernandez .660 2.85 3.34
5.65 4.45 .465 Volstad June 18 Vargas .511 4.04 3.86
2.90 3.35 .595 Sanchez June 19 Fister .548 3.73 3.34

Projected Lineup

Lineup Player Current wOBA Proj. wOBA v. RHP Proj. wOBA v. LHP
1 Dewayne Wise / Emilio Bonifacio .301 / .318 .305
2 Logan Morrison .359 .368 .343
3 Gaby Sanchez .380 .350 .375
4 Hanley Ramirez .280 .367 .387
5 Mike Stanton .382 .357 .374
6 Greg Dobbs / Jose Lopez .340 / .226 .319
7 John Buck .291 .309 .335
8 Omar Infante .274 .304 .314

Notes

- Here’s your pitching matchup of the series:

Player IP K% BB% GB% ERA FIP
Nolasco 94 1/3 17.8 5.4 39.9 4.48 3.55
Hernandez 113 1/3 23.1 7.9 48.1 3.34 2.89

Part of the allure of this matchup is watching King Felix pitch; simply put, he is one of the most amazing pitchers in the league right now. Part of it is also the fact that the ever-puzzling Ricky Nolasco will be on the mound. His last five starts have him at an 8.20 ERA (4.11 FIP). Nolasco recently issued an uncharacteristically large number of walks, but outside of that seemed like a semblance of his normal self. Of course, a .417 BABIP does not help either. Hopefully he can turn things around, because Felix Hernandez will definitely do a good job against the current Marlins hapless offense.

- I like the idea Jack McKeon has in putting Hanley Ramirez at the cleanup spot. If you thought that Ramirez was what his current stats say he is, then clearly it isn’t a smart move. But obviously Ramirez simply is not this bad, and putting him in the cleanup spot shows that McKeon and the coaches have confidence in Ramirez’s ability to bounce back. In the last two games, he delivered two base hits in each game and brought home a couple runners along the way, so hopefully those are signs of a recovery. I personally will not feel great about his condition until I see some homers leave the park, however.

- Ramirez isn’t the only one struggling. Quietly, Omar Infante has improved, but there is only so much you can do to go down until you are forced to improve or be booted from a starting spot, and Infante was almost at the bottom of the barrel. John Buck is similarly struggling and making all the pundits who thought the offseason signing was a bad idea look very smart. The Fish do not currently have enough weapons to contend with players like Buck and Infante playing well below their expectations.

- As much as I like McKeon’s move to bat Ramirez cleanup, I cannot support the continual mess that is running DeWayne Wise and Emilio Bonifacio at leadoff. Speed does not necessarily correlate with good leadoff results, and managers should know that by now.

Bold Prediction: Marlins win one of three games.

Tags: Dewayne Wise Emilio Bonifacio Felix Hernandez Hanley Ramirez Jack McKeon John Buck Miami Marlins Omar Infante Ricky Nolasco Seattle Mariners

  • http://marlinsmaniacs.blogspot.com John Dorschner

    CLUTCH? In one way, Hanley makes sense in cleanup: He’s the best clutch player on club, according to one measure. Cody Ross never had a great batting average with Fish, but somehow fans chanted his name in the late innings, because he seemed to come through. Now, in this dismal month of June with its record losses, look at these performances with runners in scoring position and two outs (for 2011, according to sports illustrated stats): LoMo is 0 for 11, Helms 1 for 8 (.125), Buck is 5 for 27 (.185), Stanton .189, Dobbs and Bonifacio are .240 (6 for 25), Gabby at .281, Hanley at .296 and Brett Hayes at .333 (3 for 9). Hanley, for all his miserable at bats, is the leading starter when it comes to the clutch. (I just posted this on my very occasional blog.)

    • Michael Jong

      John,

      Those June stats with RISP and 2 outs mean essentially nothing when it comes to predicting future value. I think Hanley’s track record speaks for itself: he’s a good hitter, and good hitters often occupy the fourth position. He has not hit well this season, but right now our best guess is that he’s still one of the better hitters on the Marlins, and thus deserving to be in an important slot such as cleanup. That’s why I’m a fan of the move, even if it appears paradoxical at the moment. And for the most part in the Seattle series, he has at least delivered.