The Reds could turn their focus to Sanchez and put together a strong offer without having to take on an encumbering salary that might bust their budget. The Indians could try to keep their surprising run going and bolster their 2012 rotation at the same time. The Rockies are on the hunt for a starting pitcher and Sanchez’s stuff would play well at altitude. The Rangers could bolster their rotation for the second consecutive summer, only this time by acquiring a guy who wouldn’t be leaving several months later.

Sanchez would be in strong demand and instantly become the jewel of the trade market (assuming the Mets decide to keep Jose Reyes), and, in most cases, the best guy on the market every summer commands a strong premium. The drop-off from Sanchez to the next best pitcher that a team could acquire is pretty staggering, and the Marlins could legitimately make the case that they were the holders of the only front-line starter on the market, and that they didn’t have to trade him since they had him under team control for next year as well.

The point Dave makes there is very intriguing. Because Sanchez is under team control for one more season and would only cost a potential buying club $2M for the rest of 2011, he would be an enticing player to go after in what might otherwise be a barren trade market should the New York Mets decide against shopping Jose Reyes. The Marlins could be looking at a nice haul, but the team also has another dilemma that Dave just briefly touches upon: how close are the Marlins to contention, and can they be able to re-sign Sanchez to the sort of deal they got for Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco?

… [visit site to read more]

Of course, I’m here to discuss my part of the draft bonanza, which was to choose the players on the Marlins roster to protect. You can find out all the protection lists here, and you can check out the guys that I protected. What I’ll be doing here is discussing which players were interesting choices to protect or not protect, along with the three draft picks that we did lose to the expansion teams.

Michael Dunn

Right now, no one would have argued with me with regards to protecting Dunn from the expansion draft. In 37 innings of work, he has performed more or less as we expected: high strikeout rates (28.4 percent), high walk rates (15.4 percent), and a general unpredictability. Bill’s team selected him in the first round, and I am more than fine with that. There is a very good chance that Dunn never figures out quite how to get hitters out consistently and thus never becomes more than a marginal major leaguer with good heat and no control. I am OK with giving up on that sort of player.

… [visit site to read more]

My process

My process is going to be a slightly more subjective one. I’ll be looking at Wins Above Replacement (WAR) from FanGraphs (fWAR), Baseball-Reference (rWAR), and Baseball Prospectus’s Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) at each position. From there, if there are any major discrepancies, I’ll attempt to make some judgment calls, with a heavy tilt towards regressing defense given the nature of defensive statistics. All the stats will be shown in reference next to the chosen names. The BBA ballot requires eight starters from each position, with any outfielders taking the three outfield positions, and one starting pitcher. Let’s get right into it.

Catcher: Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves (2.8 fWAR, 1.9 rWAR, 2.8 WARP)

McCann ranks first in fWAR, second in rWAR, and first in WARP, giving him the lead according to the advanced total contribution metrics. McCann’s defense was a point of contention between the three defensive metrics, ranging from -6 runs via TotalZone’s methodology to +3 runs via BP’s FRAA. We’re fairly certain that McCann is something of a below average catcher, but only two catchers could come close to matching his .300/.379/.512 (.380 wOBA) line, and neither of them have gathered the playing time necessary to make up for McCann’s lead.

Honorable Mentions: Miguel Montero (Arizona), Chris Iannetta (Colorado), Ramon Hernandez (Cincinnati)

… [visit site to read more]

By the way, no live chat tonight! I don’t do them on the West Coast trips on account of it being way too late to be discussing disappointing Marlins baseball. Look out for one next week.

Florida Marlins @ Seattle Mariners (37-38), June 24-26, Games 76-78

NL East Standings

Stadium: Safeco Field
Five-year Run PF*: 0.97
Five-year HR PF*: 0.95
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 331 ft.
Left-Center: 390
Center Field: 405
Right-Center: 385
Right Field: 326

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

… [visit site to read more]