Dissecting the 2011 Marlins Record

The Florida Marlins enter August 12th sitting at 55-62. Last season at this time the team was 56-56. At one point in the season, the Marlins were 10-games over the .500 mark at 29-19. Since then, they have gone 26-43. Here’s a breakdown of the Marlins record from month-to-month.

Month W-L WAR ERA FIP
April 16-9 7.2 3.16 3.61
May 15-13 6.4 4.00 3.71
June 5-23 2.6 4.17 4.10
July 17-12 9.8 4.39 3.67
August 3-9 2.1 3.71 3.92

On the surface, it looks like the Marlins have been a decent team outside of the months of June and August. A 48-32 record would definitely be among the best in all of baseball for those three months combined. The problem is that the MLB doesn’t just have a three month schedule; you have to play the whole season to make the playoffs. Taking a look at WAR, ERA, and FIP, the numbers clearly dictate what the teams record in each month was. The Marlins have seemed to have the best success when both their pitching and hitting are doing well. June by far is the worst month, as August, just 9 games in, has already composed a WAR of just 0.6 less then that of June. WAR indicates that the Marlins best month was July. Also, you can see that the Marlins starting pitching has not been as strong as it was touted to be to begin the season.

NL East Opponents 

At the beginning of the season, it was simple enough, if the Marlins could beat the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves, they would have a shot at contending. However, like the past few seasons, the Marlins were not able to do this and suffered dearly for it. Here’s a look at how the Marlins have fared against the NL East this season.

NL East Team Record Winning %
Philadelphia Phillies 3-9 .250
Atlanta Braves 3-9 .250
New York Mets 7-3 .700
Washington Nationals 8-4 .667
Total: 21-25 .456

It’s clear, the Marlins have owned the Nationals and the Mets, going 15-7 combined against the two, while struggling mightily with the two teams in contention, going 6-18 combined. This is not a good forumula for the Marlins to make the playoffs or even have a winning record. They need to turn this around starting this season with the remaining games against the Phillies and Braves and take that into next season or we’ll be having a lot more articles detailing the Marlins struggles against those two teams.

Struggles vs teams with winning records

The Marlins have seemed to play their worst against teams with winning records. In fact, the Marlins are 19-42 against teams above .500 this season. The lone two teams they have a winning record against are the Texas Rangers and the San Francisco Giants. They are a combined 6-3 vs the two World Series teams from a year ago, (if you like consolation prizes.) The Marlins have taken care of business against the teams they are supposed to be, at least, with a record of 37-22. This is probably the best indicator of the Marlins struggles this season and the reason why their record is what it is.They cannot beat quality teams. The Marlins enjoyed their best months when they played their lowest level of competition. When the tough gets going for the Marlins, they usually end up losing.

Good Riddance Sun Life, Dolphin, Pro Player, Joe Robbie, etc. Stadium!!

It’s the final season for the Marlins in whatever the 500 names of the stadium have been over the past 5-years. The Marlins are going out on a bang from this stadium. They have gone a pathetic 24-39 at home this season compared to a 32-25 away record. This is another obvious issue that the Marlins need to improve on. The Marlins need to win both on the road and at home to have any shot of contention. It maybe that fact that the Marlins like to play in front of actual crowds that makes them so bad at Sun Life?

Injuries and Lack of Depth

You cannot look at the 2011 Marlins struggles without looking at the injuries this team has gone through.

http://stats.nypost.com/mlb/stats.asp?file=inj

Date Player Status
8/5/2011 Omar Infante, 2B Broken right middle finger (on 15-day DL)
8/3/2011 Hanley Ramirez, SS Sprained left shoulder (on 15-day DL)
6/27/2011 Ryan Webb, P Right shoulder tightness (on 15-day DL)
6/17/2011 Chris Coghlan, LF Left knee inflammation (on 15-day DL)
6/13/2011 Scott Cousins, PH Lower back strain (on 60-day DL)
5/17/2011 Josh Johnson, P Right shoulder inflammation (on 60-day DL)
4/30/2011 Donnie Murphy, 3B Right wrist inflammation (on 60-day DL)
3/30/2011 John Baker, C Recovery from right elbow surgery (on 60-day DL)

This is a compilation of the current Marlins on the disabled list. Omar Infante broke his middle finger diving for a ball last week against the Mets. This is Hanley Ramirez’s second trip to the DL and the team has struggled mightily without him. The Marlins record is now sitting at 50-39 with and 5-23 without Hanley Ramirez. Ryan Webb hasn’t even pitched since he was put on the DL. Chris Coghlan has had setback after setback in the minors trying to rehab. Cousins and Murphy haven’t played yet since sustaining their injuries. Josh Johnson is sitting out with shoulder issues and only thrown off of the mound twice since being injured. John Baker is still ways away from recovering from his TJ surgery he had last season.

Other players to hit the DL this season include Edward Mujica, Logan Morrison, Mike Stanton, and Clay Hensley.

Everyone knew that the Marlins coming into this season were not too deep in starting pitching. Once Josh Johnson went down, with Alex Sanabia and Sean West hurt, the Marlins had to call up guys like Elih Villanueva, Jay Buente, and Brad Hand. This lack of depth obviously hurt this team and losing Josh Johnson, one of the top pitchers in baseball is already a major loss. Not only this, but the Marlins could ill afford to lose Stanton, Morrison, or Ramirez, and all three of them have had a stint on the disabled list.

Overall, it’s been a very tough season for the Marlins, but there’s a lot to look forward to next season. The Marlins should have an improved team, with hopefully a strong off-season, heading into the glorious new unnamed ballpark.

Topics: Atlanta Braves, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies

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