Marlin Maniac » 2011 » August

Vazquez’s career revival miraculous to behold

Michael Jong — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 21:52:44 +0000

There aren’t a lot of things to enjoy about the Marlins this year. I’ve found myself buried in work for other media and from medical school and am having a hard time keeping up with the losses the Fish have piled up this year. But as we watched Javier Vazquez pitch and record a win and his 2500th career strikeout as part of a 6-0 shutout of the New York Mets last night, one thing for which Marlins fans should be thankful is the ability to bear witness to the one of the most amazing career revivals in league history.

Through April and May, we declared his career dead. But surprise, surprise, it turns out we were wrong:

Vazquez	IP	FB Vel	ERA	FIP
First eight starts	39 1/3	88.2	7.55	5.52
Last 19 starts	115 1/3	90.7	3.36	3.53

The stats do not lie. Everything that Vazquez has done since that May 21 start has been dramatically different from the beginning of this season. Indeed, the start of 2011 for Vazquez was such a long time ago both time-wise and statistically that it hardly seems like more than an extended slump rather than the career-ending performance that was being discussed earlier this year. In fact, if you looked at the this season’s ERA, FIP, and xFIP and compared them to any of his non-New York Yankees seasons since 2005, you would have a hard time distinguishing this from any year other than his lone season with the Atlanta Braves. This season’s performance has improved so drastically that the overall peripherals are not all that different from his career marks.

Vazquez	K%	BB%	HR%	BABIP
2011	22.4	7.1	3.0	.292
Career	21.2	6.4	3.2	.296

The numbers, once again, speak for themselves. It is as if the first eight starts of this year never happened, or at least never happened in the context of a career appearing to collapse right in front of our very eyes. Those eight starts could have very well been sporadically placed among the 2011 schedule and we would none the wise about the supposed “collapse” and “rebirth” of Vazquez. Why is it so special then? Because there was reason to believe a collapse was imminent, if not already happening, and there was some adjustment that led to a return to the Vazquez of old.

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Who said Buck isn’t worth $6 million?

Michael Jong — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 18:43:34 +0000

To the naysayers out there, here are John Buck‘s performances in 2010 and 2011:

John Buck	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	fWAR
2010	437	.281	.314	.489	.345	3.0
2011	438	.234	.325	.401	.317	2.1

It might not look great compared to the 2010 season that the Marlins “paid for” when they offered Buck a three-year, $18 million deal. However, the Marlins really did not pay for that three-win season, but rather a year that was more like his projected .320-ish wOBA with slightly below average defense, exactly the sort of season they are getting from Buck as the team heads into September. At an estimated $4 million per FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), the Fish would have received $8.4 million in production in return for Buck’s services, $2 million more than they actually paid.

Those who complained before the season that the Marlins paid too much for Buck may have been right given the possible alternatives, but they cannot argue that he has not made his money so far this season. Let’s take a look at how he has done it.

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Who (or what) is to blame for Marlins pitching prospects failing?

Michael Jong — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 18:42:38 +0000

Ethan J. Skolnick of the Palm Beach Post put up this scathing commentary on the Marlins’ recent difficulty raising homegrown pitchers. Without getting to his point, the fact that the Fish have not gotten much out of their early-round pitching pickups is not avoidable:

Player	Draft	Round	IP	ERA	B-Ref WAR
Jeff Allison	2003	1	0	–	–
Logan Kensing	2003	2	133	5.21	-1.5
Taylor Tankersley	2004	1	118	4.58	0.5
Jason Vargas	2004	2	116 2/3	5.25	-0.3
Chris Volstad	2005	1	546 2/3	4.74	2.2
Aaron Thompson	2005	1	0	–	–
Jacob Marceaux	2005	1	0	–	–
Ryan Tucker	2005	1 (Suppl)	37	8.27	-1.3
Sean West	2005	1 (Suppl)	112 2/3	5.03	-0.5
Brett Sinkbeil	2006	1	2	13.50	-0.2
Total	–	–	1066	5.02	-1.1

No matter who is at fault for these results since the 2003 draft, it is difficult to argue that they have come out well at all. The Marlins picked up just over 1000 innings of pitching that was pretty close to replacement level ball. But is that the fault of the organization’s drafting or the team’s player development? I can’t really be the judge of that, as I do not know any of those parties, but I can think of two systematic problems that the Marlins may have that could contribute to the problem.

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What do we have in Bryan Petersen?

Michael Jong — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 17:20:43 +0000

The Marlins have been having a terrible month of August. Their record is 5-17 this month, eerily similar to the 5-23 record the team had in the awful month of June. Hanley Ramirez has a good chance of not returning this season. It is very unlikely that Josh Johnson returns this year as well. The team demoted fan favorite Logan Morrison and have been winging it in the outfield since then (really since Chris Coghlan was hurt).

One thing that has been a pleasant surprise (outside of the continued excellence of Mike Stanton) has been Bryan Peteresen. Petersen has hit pretty well in 2011 in his limited time in the majors:

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Bryan Peteresen	127	.266	.349	.431	.348	118

Petersen has impressed in his brief stint, showing many of the skills that made him a borderline top prospect for the Fish just a few years ago. At this point, he is too old to be considered much of a prospect (he is 25 years old this season), but with the Marlins having possible holes to fill in center field (or even a corner depending on how the Morrison situation turns out), the team may do well to find out what type of player they have in Petersen.

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Sometimes, it is hard to be a Marlins fan.

James C. Etzbach Jr. — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 15:14:07 +0000

I’m taking a little vacation from my usual trek through Marlins history this week to focus on what I feel is the state of the Marlins today (sigh), and point fingers at where things went wrong.

The first omen of tragedy would have to be the trading of Dan Uggla during the off season. I wasn’t privy to the details, and we may never know the whole story, but from what I gathered all of the rumors and speculation that swirled around point to an unacceptable amount of douchebaggery during negotiations with the Marlins from Uggla’s camp. I have lost a considerable amount of respect for Uggla due to his dealings in that whole matter. I do like Omar Infante a lot, especially from a defensive standpoint, but anytime you trade a 30+ HR hitter, no matter what planet you’re from, it is going to sting. Of course at the beginning of the season Uggla’s struggles at the plate made the trade look like gold for the Marlins. But he has since righted himself and recently hit HR #30.

TRAITOR!

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