Miami Marlins 2012 Season Preview: Projections Galore

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Here are the links to all of the 2012 season previews we have done so far:

We have finally finished up the 2012 Miami Marlins season preview. Just in nick of time as well. The season is set to kick off tomorrow. We will have a game preview up tomorrow, that will include everything you want to know about tomorrow’s match up.

 

April 2, 2012; Miami FL, USA; Miami Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen (13) before a spring training game against the New York Yankees at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

 

If you recall, in all of our previews, I predicted each player’s WAR. Today, we will add those all up and see how many projected wins I have for the Miami Marlins in 2012. My gut tells me the Marlins will be somewhere around 85-88 wins in 2o12.

Catcher: John Buck (1.7 WAR)
First Base: Gaby Sanchez (2.6 WAR)
Second Base: Omar Infante (2.2 WAR)
Third Base: Hanley Ramirez (5.7WAR)
Shortstop: Jose Reyes (4.8 WAR)
Left Field: Logan Morrison (2.5 WAR)
Center Field: Emilio Bonifacio (1.8 WAR)
Right Field: Giancarlo Stanton (5.7 WAR)
Bench: 1.0 WAR

Starter #1: Josh Johnson (4.5 WAR)
Starter #2: Anibal Sanchez (3.0 WAR)
Starter #3: Mark Buehrle (2.5 WAR)
Starter #4: Ricky Nolasco (2.6 WAR)
Starter #5: Carlos Zambrano (1.5 WAR)
Starter #6/7: 0.5 WAR

Heath Bell: 1.4 WAR
Rest of Bullpen: 1.5 WAR

Total Projection (Position Players): 28.0 WAR
Total Projection (Pitchers): 17.5 WAR
Total Projection: 45.5 WAR
Estimated W-L Record:
 88-74

This is based on a replacement level that is lower than usual given the oddity of last year’s replacement levels. My projections have the Marlins at the upper end of what I felt they would do in 2012. In order for the Marlins to get 88 wins, a lot would have to go their way.

These are just my projections, and based on last season, the Marlins should be in playoff contention, or very close to. This is a huge step up for the Marlins.

The past few seasons, the Marlins have been around a 80-81 win team. With a few lucky breaks, they finished a little better then that. With a few injuries, as was the case last season, they finished as a 70 win club.

How does this affect the team’s odds at a playoff berth? Well, the addition of the second Wild Card spot in both leagues really aids the Marlins chances. They are likely to compete with the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves for the division, as well as a wild card spot. Teams in the NL Central and NL West will also be fighting for those final spots.

Marlins should have about a 30-35 percent chance of making the playoffs and between a 15-20 perecent chance of winning the division outright.

 

April 2, 2012; Miami FL, USA; A general view of Marlins Park during spring training game between the New York Yankees and the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

 

Now here is a look at the projections by the rest of the staff:

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