Headed Home; Changing Planes in Houston
Are the Fish Juiced Enough to Take Three More at MinuteMaid Park?
After a dreary, dismal April, the Marlins of early May (14-14, .500) are looking better in a number of key areas, but still need improvement to be competitive in one of baseball’s toughest divisions. Fresh off of a 6-win tour of California, the Marlins have a three-game layover in Houston on their way back to Miami. The Astros (13-15, .464) just had a five-game winning streak snapped by a 1-8 loss to the Cardinals.
Here are the probable match-ups for the series:
- Monday: Carlos Zambrano vs. Wandy Rodriguez
- Tuesday: Anibal Sanchez vs. Aneury Rodriguez
- Wednesday: Josh Johnson vs. Lucas Harrell
And here are some team stats, courtesy of Fangraphs.com:
Pitching
Team
W
L
SV
G
GS
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BABIP
LOB%
GB%
HR/FB
ERA
FIP
xFIP
WAR
Marlins
14
14
5
108
28
253.1
6.89
3.13
0.6
0.288
74.00%
48.70%
7.00%
3.38
3.42
3.86
4
Astros
13
15
7
115
28
247.1
6.88
3.17
1.06
0.287
73.60%
47.30%
11.10%
3.86
4.05
3.96
1.8
Batting
Team
G
PA
H
HR
R
RBI
SB
BB%
K%
ISO
BABIP
AVG
OBP
SLG
wOBA
wRC+
Fld
BsR
WAR
Astros
322
1089
254
21
132
126
23
9.30%
18.60%
0.128
0.313
0.263
0.336
0.392
0.323
103
1.7
-5
5.5
Marlins
311
1054
218
23
100
92
33
8.90%
19.80%
0.138
0.272
0.231
0.302
0.369
0.299
85
-8.6
-1.7
2.3
The pitching stats show a near dead heat between the two teams, with the notable difference being the Astros’ willingness to give up the long ball. I’d give the advantage to the Marlins in pitching, unless J.J. has another outing like his last.
Batting? The stats tell another story, but it’s one that is overshadowed by the dismal April numbers. It looks like we can see the ball again. I’m tempted to call it a wash, but I think I’ll give a slight edge to the Astros on this. If our hitting over the last six games is the real deal, then I can see us heading home with nine straight.
Once again, it comes down to the bullpen. Sad to say, but the advantage goes to the Astros here, too. Our bullpen has been dismal, with the notable exception of Steve Cishek. Hats off to him, and let’s hope he continues to display those bewildering sliders and curveballs that have so effectively shut down our opponents’ bats.
There is another factor that I think will enter this series, and that is the Astros’ difficulty defending against stolen bases. Neither of their catchers has an enviable record, and four of our starting lineup (five, if you count Gaby Sanchez after last night!) are credible stealing threats. We’ve also been showing much better plate discipline. Either way, we need to get Reyes, Bonifacio, and Ramirez on base as often as possible.
Predictions: I think the Marlins will win the first two of the series, one by a comfortable margin; the other will be a squeaker. The third game will go to the Astros, just because of the look on Josh Johnson’s face when he sat down after 2 1/3 innings on Friday Night. I fear he might have the yips, and our bullpen just isn’t strong enough to carry the day again.