For the past two seasons, I have attempted to make bold predictions for the forthcoming season. Both of those years, what I have predicted have been close to 100% wrong. In fact, reviewing the two years, I have only gotten 2.5 out of the 9 bold predictions I have made correct.
Despite my Jeff Mathis-like batting average in the prediction game, I did make a bold prediction that turned out to be on the money last season, going with a last second gut call:
5. Jose Fernandez will win Rookie of the Year
Full disclosure: My original pick to win this was St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Shelby Miller, but when the news broke that Fernandez would be on the Marlins opening day roster, I amended my pick. And boy do I look like a genius today for changing my pick last minute.
Even though I picked Fernandez to win ROY, I still vastly underrated what he would do. I predicted he would throw 138 IP, post a 3.75 ERA and post a 3.17 K/BB ratio. I was close on the K/BB ratio, as he came in at 3.22 for the year. I was however way off on the ERA (2.19) and the innings pitched (172.2).
Fernandez has not won the award yet, but even despite the season Yasiel Puig had, I don’t see the voters picking him over Fernandez for the award. I will give myself the point for now and change it if he does not end up winning it.
That turned out to be the only prediction I got right last year, making me think that I could right the ship this season with some more bold predictions.
Here are my 5 bold predictions for the upcoming 2014 season for the Miami Marlins: