May 18, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Tom Koehler (34) reacts after giving a home run to Arizona Diamondbacks right fielder Gerardo Parra (not pictured) during the first inning at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

One of the reasons that I love baseball is the variety of outcomes and styles that it provides fans. Fans of pitching can see a start by a power pitcher like Jose Fernandez and breakdown how he did it. But there is more than one way to skin a cat, so to speak, the way that Jose Fernandez dominated the Phillies a couple of weeks ago is entirely different from the way that Tom Koehler handled an impressive Arizona Diamondbacks lineup tonight. Koehler looked to be in for a rough night as Gerardo Parra hit a grooved fastball at 94 mph out on the first pitch of the game. But Koehler settled down went 6 IP, allowing that single run off the Parra dinger, with 2 walks and 7 strikeouts on 99 pitches–68 of them strikes.

The age-old adage, is to “get ahead early,” that is to say to throw first pitch strikes. Koehler faced 23 batters in 6 innings, he threw ten first pitch strikes, and had three one-pitch at-bats; the homer to Parra, and two groundouts one by Miguel Montero and the other by A.J. Pollock,13 of the 23 batters he faced had 0-1 count, homered, or were retired on the first pitch. The results of Koehler’s plate appearances follows.

What is particularly interesting to me in that chart are not only the 7 strikeouts but the strikeouts that came on the cutter and also on the curveball but less so. According to pitch F/X data Koehler threw six sliders and got three whiffs, including two strikeouts; one of Paul Goldschmidt in the first inning and one by Gerardo Parra in the third. Those are both demarcated by a six on a black dot on the graph above. The effectiveness of Koehler’s cutter tonight is something that is worth explaining. In the graph below.

Fastballs thrown by right handed pitchers usually rise and either have “cut” or “tail” meaning that the ball moves in to right handed batters in the former and away from from right handed batters in the latter case. Koehler’s fastball “tails” away righties and thus “cuts” into lefties. The cutter can be used to amplify this effect, when facing a right-handed batter who is expecting a “tailing” fastball at 94 mph, it is easy to use a slider to throw of his balance, and vice versa. Koehler’s cutter as above shows, has a lot of horizontal movement but not much vertical movement and is thrown at around 90 mph. The two strikeouts that came via slider; one of Goldschmidt and the other of Parra plays off that effect. Parra’s 7 pitch strikeout in the third inning, shows this well.

Pitches 1 and 6 were fastballs that severely “cut” or “bore” into Parra at 95 mph while pitch 7 the strikeout cutter (effectively a backdoor slider) as pitch F/X designated it comes in at 90 mph and despite the “cutting” effect of the fastball to a left-handed hitter the cutter still functions as pitch that can throw a hitter off balance. Koehler’s at-bat against Parra in the third shows that the value of working the strike zone both in and out as well as up and down. The relative movement inside the strike zone of a pitch like a cutter can force hitters to offer at pitches they would not otherwise. Koehler also recorded three strikeouts via the curveball, the method of how a curveball works was covered in my last article and is effectively about speed difference and how it changes hitters eye levels. The curveball not the changeup is the four seam fastball’s Bizarro twin.

I also want to point out that the cutter works because it is a pitch that like the slider is nearly fastball speed but has much more horizontal movement, causing batters to chase the pitch, expecting it to be a fastball and thus swing and miss.

Koehler was effective tonight for three reasons, he “got ahead” in the count, had good fastball velocity averaging 94 mph, and was able to get swings and misses on his secondary pitches, the cutter and the curveball. The cutter was effective especially in the two at-bats against Goldschmidt and Parra, because it forced whiffs based on his fastball’s movement. The curveball is effective because he was able to control it, generating swings and misses based on the principles of slowing bat speed and changing eye levels. If a right-handed pitcher that can work his fastball at 94 mph can throw two secondary pitches for strikes, a cutter/slider or curveball/changeup he can be successful against many major league lineups. One breaking pitch that can get swings and misses based off of fastball movement and one breaking/off-speed pitch that make hitters whiff with its relationship to fastball velocity.

That explains the three main kinds of non-sinker/splitter dependent pitchers. Fastball/Slider guys like Yu Darvish, Fastball/Curveball pitchers like Jose Fernandez and Fastball/Changeup guys like Justin Verlander.

May 1, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins left fielder Juan Pierre (9) connects for a base hit during the second inning against the New York Mets at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Upon hearing that his obituary had been published in a New York newspaper, Mark Twain famously wrote, “the reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.”  I have a feeling that Juan Pierre must know exactly how Twain felt reading of his own demise.

The early part of the season has served to confirm the worst fears about 2013 Miami Marlins – that they truly are as bad as they looked on paper coming into the season.   Naturally, the focus of the fans and media has quickly turned to how this team will improve in future seasons.  It helps us avoid having to deal with the disaster the Marlins have become on a nightly basis.  The Marlins have also done their part to fuel this sentiment by promoting several of their better prospects way ahead of schedule.  Recently, I have seen several items on the Internets about the Marlins future lineup, for example this one by our own Daniel Z. on Marlin Maniac and another over at Fish Stripes.

One thing everyone seems to agree on is that Pierre is the struggling veteran who needs to be pushed aside ASAP so that Christian Yelich can be called up to take his spot.  Pierre’s dismal early season numbers, currently .241/.289/.278 (wOBA .257), have been cited as the proof of his career’s final plunge into the abyss.  But is Pierre really done?

After a difficult April, things have changed for JP in the month of May.  The Marlins called up veteran right handed hitting OF Matt Diaz on May 2^nd and Mike Redmond has quietly taken advantage of his availability to utilize Pierre as a platoon player since then.  The results have been overwhelmingly positive for Pierre, to say the least.  Take a look at the Marlins top 3 hitters for the month of May:

I think the decision to bench him becomes a bit tougher now that you are talking about benching the Marlins’ top offensive player this month for an unproven rookie.  I know that Pierre has no future with this team, but don’t the Marlins still have the responsibility to try to win games by putting the best available lineup on the field this season.  Of course, I am skeptical that Pierre can keep this up, but he did hit .329/.374/.405 (wOBA .343) against RHP just last season so there is a possibility that he can.  If nothing else, keeping Pierre in the lineup builds up his trade value so that the Marlins can at least get a middling prospect for him at the trade deadline.

Yelich is raking in Double A to the tune of .319/.390/.659 (wOBA .456) and the power he is showing is exactly the element most sorely needed on the Marlins.  However, he only has 105 plate appearances above Single A and currently has a strike out rate of 25%, which would surely rise when facing major league pitching.  In addition, delaying the promotion of Yelich will almost certainly ensure his eligibility for salary arbitration is delayed for a year (not that the Marlins front office appears to understand how this works).

I want to see Yelich up as much as anyone, but delaying the inevitable a bit may be the best course of action.  Bringing him up now is probably not going to make the Marlins a much better team, especially when it would mean replacing one of your few positive contributors.  Besides, Yelich still appears to have some room for development so why not do it in a situation with not as much pressure.

Now if only Yelich could show he can play third base:

May 7, 2013; San Diego, CA, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Alex Sanabia (28) talks with catcher Miguel Olivo (21) during the sixth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Marlins made a tough decision last week when they moved struggling starter Wade LeBlanc from the rotation into the bullpen. LeBlanc had posted an ugly 5.79 ERA and a 4.94 FIP. He had only worked into the sixth inning twice in seven starts and the Marlins decided to move Tom Koehler into the starting rotation.

Alex Sanabia has continued to struggle in 2013, posting a 4.85 ERA and an even uglier 5.66 FIP. Sanabia has only struck out (22) two more hitters than he has walked (20) in 2013. His 1.72 WHIP has been unimpressive, as he rarely has a clean inning 1-2-3 inning.

When Sanabia takes the mound, often times, the game gets out of reach before the Marlins even have a chance to get their offense going.

Tonight could be a huge start for Sanabia against a hot hitting Reds lineup. The Marlins have already shown they are losing patience with inept performances by yanking LeBlanc from the rotation, so Alex could be walking a tight rope tonight.

If he does end up struggling again tonight, the Marlins do have a couple of options on their 40-man roster they could bring up to take Sanabia’s spot in the rotation in Sam Dyson, Brad Hand, Duane Below, and Jacob Turner.

Both Dyson and Turner are right handed pitchers and Hand and Below are southpaws. Here is a quick look at their 2013 numbers (all in Triple-A, except Dyson):

Turner is the only real prospect of the quartette. However, he struggled with his control in spring training and is finally putting things back together in Triple-A, so I highly doubt the Marlins will give him a call-up right away. Turner is still not striking out enough hitter in Triple-A for the Marlins to trust him in the majors.

I still believe a little more seasoning in the minors and a late season call-up for Turner will be the best route for the Marlins to take with Turner. He has already been rushed to the majors once by the Detroit Tigers, no need to do it again.

The Marlins claimed Sam Dyson off of waivers from the Blue Jays back in January and he has pitched in Double-A for the Suns since. Like Turner, Dyson does not strike out enough minor league hitters to warrant a chance in the big leagues. Dyson has decent numbers in Double-A, but the Marlins would be wise to allow him to get more work in at that level and then some work in Triple-A.

The third option for the Marlins, Below, has had the most major league success of the four. The Marlins claimed Below off of waivers from the Detroit Tigers near the end of April and assigned him to Triple-A New Orleans to be an option for the bullpen down the road. Below also made 4 starts in Triple-A with the Tigers and pitched to an 2.10 ERA and a 3.01 FIP.

Below owns a career 4.06 ERA and a 4.14 FIP. He controls his walks to make up for lower K rate. Below has only made three career major league starts, but his minor league track record suggests he could handle a starters role for short periods.

The final option is a player most Marlins fans are familiar with. Brad Hand is always a fun player for Marlins fans to see pitch because the jokes about his name are limitless. Out of the four, Hand probably has the best stuff for a major league rotation, but often has bouts with control issues. Hand’s ERA looks nice, but he has gotten lucky with stranding runners on base, as LOB% sits at 85%.

Hand’s numbers in the majors are actually fairly similar to Sanabia’s numbers in the majors this season, so he in no way would be a huge upgrade over Sanabia.

While none of the options seem to be great ones for the Fish, the reality is that Sanabia has likely outlived his stint with the Marlins. He has not thrown well all season and has proven to not be a major league starter full-time. The Marlins have these four options on their 40-man roster to give a shot to see how they fare.

The Marlins also have Brian Flynn pitching well in Triple-A, but with the team already facing huge roster decisions with players returning from injuries soon, the team would be wise to let him season with the Suns and give him a shot when he is ready later in the season.

Sanabia has a start tonight against the Cincinnati Reds to prove that he belongs in the Marlins rotation, if he does not perform well, the Marlins could show him the door, like they did with LeBlanc.

What do you guys think, does Sanabia deserve a longer leash or should the Marlins make the move? Let us know in the comment section.

May 5, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Marcell Ozuna (48) during an at bat during the sixth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Marlins defeated the Phillies 14-2. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

The Marlins have had a lot of trouble scoring runs this year, that is obvious for all too see. There have been a few bright spots at the batter’s box: Justin Ruggiano showing some good pop, Marcell Ozuna and the hot start to his major league career and Nick Green who filled in admirably for Adeiny Hechavarria during his DL stint last month. The bright spots are signs of hope in an otherwise uninspiring lineup. A collection of bench players, over-the-hill everyday players and rookies trying their damnedest to be productive. There isn’t much of a mystery to explaining why the Marlins have scuffled so much in scoring runs so far this season. But I want to illustrate below what can be isolated to make the team better in the short term. Later in the article we will see how just time and the return of two major middle-of-the-lineup pieces will improve the Marlins offense.

Apr 28, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (27) connects for a two run homer in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Marlins lineup so far this season has operated around to very important foundations both with Giancarlo Stanton on and off the lineup. The importance placed on veterans Juan Pierre and Placido Polanco being “catalysts” or at least a stabilizing force for such a young lineup. Pierre has hit in the leadoff spot in most games this season and Polanco has served as the team’s cleanup hitter and as its three hole hitter. I would say the experiment has failed and lieu of any more roster moves in the foreseeable future; I propose these changes to the lineup.

Adeiny Hechavarria and Nick Green would be the best double play combination for the fish to field until Donovan Solano comes off of the DL. In April when filling in for Hechavarria at Shortstop, Green was having a very good season with a .310/.333/.483 and a .343 wOBA. Although those numbers might be a tad unsustainable as his career triple slash line is .238/.304/.351. along with a .291 wOBA but baseball is a very complicated sport to explain and maybe he will remain hot as the season goes on. Since returning from his injury Adeiny Hechavarria in 27 PA has doubled his line drive percentage from 9.8% in April to 18.2% in May while lowering his groundball to flyball ratio from 2.70 to 2.00. These facts along with a higher wOBA and OPS (.229 and .516 in April; .318 and .759 in May) shows that the young Cuban shortstop may be making progress as a hitter to be placed on top of a major league lineup.

Ruggiano and Ozuna are the teams two best hitters at the moment and deserve a shot of anchoring the lineup. In Giancarlo Stanton’s absence and until the return of Logan Morrison to the lineup sometime in June these players who have shown true hitting skills in a bad lineup deserve a shot at more than hitting behind Placido Polanco and Greg Dobbs. Ruggiano has put a 20% HR/FB ratio this year, placing him in company with players like Troy Tulowitzki, Matt Holliday, Evan Longoria and Ryan Howard. Ozuna’s case may be entirely unsustainable for many reasons, first of all small sample size and second, he may be hot right now and there is no telling how long he will be able to keep this up.

The six, seven and eight spots in the Marlins order for the foreseeable future will be the biggest problem for the team. Especially Polanco and Pierre two players past their primes who are doing more to hurt the team then they are to help it at the moment. It is true that unless many things change in the next few weeks, Pierre and Polanco will remain with the big league club. Otherwise the Marlins need to find replacements for these two players as soon as possible.

My Projected Lineup 5/10/2013 against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

It might be cliched to say, but time heals all wounds, and the 2013 Marlins are the best way to prove that old adage. The Marlins as presently constituted in the first third of May will look very different from the team that will take the field sometime in the middle of June.

Mar 9, 2013; Melbourne, FL, USA; Miami Marlins left fielder Christian Yelich (76) against the Washington Nationals during a spring training game at Space Coast Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Juan Pierre and his .239/.294/.274 slashes are not long for a lineup that is struggling to score runs. Further, I remember him saying that if he lost his job to a talented young stud prospect like Christian Yelich that he would be willing to step aside to let him take his place. Yelich seems to be ready to take over, if there is one thing that is certain about baseball is that hitters succeed at any level. That very often minor league success is likely to be converted into major league success, LoMo and Chris Coghlan in their rookie years are prime examples. Yelich’s career .323/.390/.675 slash line in the lower minors maybe inflated or impossible to live up to in the near major league future. But other recent phenoms like Bryce Harper and Mike Trout have proven that talent is talent and is easily convertible to an everyday major league player.

Yelich is important, but the return of a healthy Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrison cannot be underestimated. I don’t need to sit here at my computer and tell you all how important a hitter as transformational as Giancarlo Stanton can be to the Marlins or any other team, his return will be huge. LoMo’s return on the other hand is more important to parse out. In 2010 and 2011, Morrison when healthy collected a respectable .259/.351 /.460 slash line hitting 25 HR in 185 games with a .372 wOBA in 201 and a .346 wOBA in 2011. If Morrison is healthy he will provide a much needed boost to the middle of the lineup and credible protection to to Giancarlo. The Marlins seems to have gone on a path of promoting their prospects and Derek Dietrich is a player that will be in constant competition with Donovan Solano for plate appearances as the season goes on

Middle of June Projected Lineup

*projected statistics according to ZiPS

Finally, the Marlins offense has been bad so far this season perhaps historically so. But there is light at the end of the tunnel. The return of Giancarlo and LoMo from injury, the promotion of Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich and decreased dependence for run creation from the bats of Placido and JP will improve the team’s offense greatly as we reach June and into the rest of the season.

May 6, 2013; San Diego, CA, USA; Miami Marlins left fielder Juan Pierre (9) prior to the game against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Recently manager Mike Redmond has started to use left fielder Juan Pierre in a platoon role, sitting the left handed hitter against left handed pitchers. Pierre for his career has hit well against both righties and lefties, but with father time catching up to him, he may not be more than a platoon player in 2013.

Has Redmond been correct to use Pierre in a platoon role in 2013? Lets take a look at Pierre’s numbers and make a determination.

Here is a quick look at Pierre’s splits against lefties and righties in 2013:

As the table illustrates, Pierre is hitting almost 100 points better against right handed pitchers as opposed to lefties. He is also getting on base at a higher clip and slugging better. This could be attributed to his batting average with balls in play (BABIP) being over 100 points higher against right handers, but it also indicates Pierre makes better contact against righties.

Here is a look at Pierre’s underlying peripherals:

Pierre is striking out and more against righties, but is able to make up with by walking more. Pierre is also hitting the ball into the ground more against lefties, as his groundball rate is at an alarmingly high 74%. Pierre has a career 60% groundball rate against lefties and a career 21.7% line drive rate. His line drive rate is sitting at just 11.1% early on.

Pierre’s ratio of groundballs to flyballs of 5 to 1. That is way up from his career numbers of hitting just over three groundballs to one flyball.

Early in the season, Pierre was in the lineup against both righties and lefties, but recently, Redmond decided that he would platoon Pierre in left. When Austin Kearns was with the team, he was an option in left to spell Pierre. The team has gone recently with Matt Diaz, with Kearns on the bereavement list.

Take a look at how Pierre’s numbers have looked since he has been utilized as a platoon player at the beginning of the month:

For most of his career, Pierre was about even against righties and lefties, but with age and his eroding skills, Pierre seems to be effective only as a platoon player at this point for the Marlins.

Pierre is no longer the player that he was in 2003 when he was a catalyst for the World Series Championship team. He however can make a great impact if manager Redmond continues to use Pierre properly. I would expect he and Justin Ruggiano to platoon in left field once Stanton returns from his hamstring injury, if (and that’s a big if)  Marcell Ozuna can keep up his hot hitting.

Christian Yelich is also not far behind in being major league ready and moving into left field permanently.

What do you guys think? Can Juan Pierre still be a full-time starter in the league?