This selection should come of no surprise to Marlins fans. When looking for pitching, Marlins scouts under Oklahoman Stan Meek put a prime focus on that region. That focus yielded Josh Johnson in the fourth round in 2005 and Chad James in the First Round in 2009. While this may not be a high upside pick, Heaney was selected for good reason. Within the next two years Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez and Carlos Zambrano will become free agents and thus be extremely costly to retain or replace. Overall, with the exception of last year’s First Round Pick Jose Fernandez, pitching in the Minor Leagues is bare of a potential high impact starter.  As a college selection, Heaney seems to be easily projectable as he works his way throughout the farm system. The team in the near future will need young, high impact starters.  As such, Miami was prompted to select a college pitcher. In general the Marlins under the ownership of Jeffrey Loria have selected high upside but signable High School Prospects like a Chad James, Jose Fernandez, Chris Volstad, Ryan Tucker, or Brad Hand. The issue with this is that despite having a propensity for generating value and a high reward, there is a much greater risk with selecting high school pitchers. Having less experience and less overall growth than college players, these High School Prospects are slower to reach the Majors and are less projectable going forward. While a team in my opinion should generally select high impact prospects, the Marlins will soon have an immediate need for pitching and unlike in the past are in dire need of a pitcher who can reach the Major League Level rather quickly .

With the exception of Fernandez of who is dominating the Minor Leagues and Hand who filled a need down the stretch last season, these selections have failed to have an impact. This contributed to an organization devoid of pitching depth thus demanding the team select a pitcher like Heaney. Essentially one can argue the Marlins   selected the “safe college arm.” Recognizing the team’s long standing history in Oklahoma and the immediate need for pitching, this pick should be of no surprise.

May 2, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (right) is congratulated by first baseman

The game started off very interesting to say the least. After a Jose Reyes pop out, Emilio Bonifacio (BB), Hanley Ramirez (Single), and Austin Kearns (BB) all reached to load the bases early in the first. On a 1-2 count after fouling off a number of pitches, Omar Infante drove in the first run of the night off a RBI ground out that Brandon Crawford could not field cleanly. If done so, the Giants would have easily turned a double play. Though they were just able to get one in the inning, Giants starter Barry Zito exited the first inning with 33 pitches and 2 walks. The rest of his 2.2 innings proved to be tough as Zito allowed a career high 7 walks while struggling to lower his pitch count. The Marlins added their second run the very next inning off another Giants blunder, this time by Joaquin Arias. Emilio Bonifacio hit a sharp grounder off the mound that took a funky path toward Arias. With Reyes digging towards second, Arias could not get in proper position to make the play. Unfortunately this would be the only runs the Marlins could scrape out till the tenth as the hitting woes seem to continue down this lineup. Stanton did show some pop and managed to be the only player worth noting offensively tonight.

May 2, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Barry Zito (left) talks to catcher Hector Sanchez (right) after the first inning against the Miami Marlins at AT

Carlos Zambrano however was the bright spot. After getting into trouble during the first two innings, Big Z settled in and pitched marvelous baseball. Showing consistent velocity and poise, Zambrano tossed 7 innings of scoreless baseball while striking out 5. I noticed Big Z continued to smile and look happy on the mound throughout his outing. Zambrano has been a valuable asset to this team so far and has defiantly lived up to his part in the Chris Volstad trade. After 7 innings of scoreless baseball, Edward Mujica added a scoreless 8th setting up another opportunity for Heath Bell to get back on track. Unfortunately Bell continued to struggle. In fact, Bell did not record a single out and was pulled for Steve Cishek after giving up 3 hits and 1 run. Cishek entered the game and again showed why he’s considered the most reliable arm in the pen and managed to work out of a major jam, one that included the bases being loaded with the winning run on third. After Stanton’s home run in extras, Cishek came back out in the 10th and shut the door while fanning 2.

May 2, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Carlos Zambrano (38) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at AT

Overall, this was a very ugly game that became beautiful after the last out was recorded. Though there was zero offense, it seemed the Marlins had the momentum the whole game due to the high amount of walks and a strong outing by Big Z. It is very positive to see the team not lay down after a momentum crushing ninth inning. It was also encouraging to see Stanton swing the bat well and deliver a clutch home run in a much needed time. The Marlins will meet the Giants tomorrow (5/3) for the last game of the series as Anibal Sanchez will battle Ryan Vogelsong at 3:35 PM. Go Marlins!

May 2, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; Miami Marlins relief pitcher Steve Cishek (31) celebrates after the game against the San Francisco Giants at AT

Miami Marlins fans show their support for their manager, Ozzie Guillen. (Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE)

The Marlins will welcome the Chicago Cubs to Miami to visit Marlins Park for the first time.  This will be the first time that the two squads face off since completing a major trade in the off-season. The Cubs sent oft-troubled right handed pitcher Carlos Zambrano to the Marlins for first round bust Chris Volstad. Neither pitcher is expected to make an appearance in a game this series.

Chicago Cubs (3-7) @ Miami Marlins (4-6), April 17-19, Games 11-13

NL East Standings

Stadium: Marlins Park

Source: thefightinfish.com

Five-year Run PF*: N/A
Five-year HR PF*: N/A
Stadium Dimensions:
Left field line—340 ft.
Left-center field—384 ft.
Center field—416 ft.
Right-center field—392 ft.
Right field line—335 ft.

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

(more…)

Typically, number five starters are supposed to be boring, non headliners. The only time you ever think of them as a baseball fan is when you are cursing them out for having a bunch of bad starts in a row.

The Miami Marlins and their number five starter are atypical, though.

Mar 13, 2012; Jupiter, FL. USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher

The Marlins acquired Carlos Zambrano and cash from the Chicago Cubs for pitcher Chris Volstad. The trade involved two pitchers that has been struggling the past few seasons.

The two pitchers both struggled in 2011, but are very much different in every aspect. Zambrano has a proven track record, while Volstad was a former first round pick that was still trying to establish himself.

The Marlins decided that their money was better investing in a pitcher for one seasons, that was declining, then put their money into a pitcher that was showing some signs of improvement, and under team control for three seasons.

With the Marlins new win-now mode, it is hard to fault them for that move. Zambrano is more likely to bounce back in 2012 then Volstad is to have a big break out season.

A problem for Zambrano in 2011 was his drop in strikeout production. For a pitcher that walks 10.8% of his batters, Zambrano cannot struggle to get strikeouts, as he was putting too many men on base. Last season, Zambrano had just a career low 15.6% on his strikeouts. The Marlins will need to see improvement in that in 2012.

Combine the lack of strikeouts and his lack of plate control at times, hitters made a career high in contact rate off of Zambrano.

Zambrano was not changing anything up from his previous success. Zambrano was still getting the same amount of swings in and out of the strike zone, but with less strikeouts, the contact rate grew at an alarming rate.

One reason for that struggle could be Zambrano’s velocity. In fact, over the past five seasons, we have seen a dip in Big Z’s velocity:

The good news for Marlins fans, Zambrano’s fastball has new life on it. Zambrano reportedly had more zip on his fastball in Winter Ball and is bringing the same heat to spring training. He has been around 91-93 this spring. If Zambrano can maintain his velocity at that level, the Marlins and Zambrano will be in fantastic shape. Zambrano can get back to his 20% strikeout rate if he does.

Mar 13, 2012; Jupiter, FL. USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Carlos Zambrano (38) delivers a pitch against the Atlanta Braves at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-US PRESSWIRE

Another issue for Zambrano in 2011 was the amount of home runs he allowed. Zambrano has always been known as a guy who can suppress home runs well, but in 2011, that was not the case. Zambrano allowed over a home run an inning in 2011.

Regression and moving from the hitter friendly confines of Wrigley Field to the spacious new Marlin Park should help Zambrano bounce back big time when it comes to that.

With some regression, the Marlins are likely to see a rebound season from Zambrano. I still find it unlikely that he can ever return to that level he was on when he was a Cub.

What do the projection systems think about those chances?

The projection systems are not big believers that Zambrano will be pitching too many innings. At this point, it would be a lot to expect 200+ innings from Big Z. But 137-158 is also a bit low.

The most reasonable innings for Zambrano would be around the 165-175 range. The Fans were the ones closest to that mark.

All the projection systems have Zambrano’s strikeout rates returning to normal, expect for Steamer, which seems to me is an Atlanta Braves fan, still bitter about Big Z’s meltdown. (Totally just kidding).

Here are my projections for Big Z:

Overall, this is a solid season for Big Z. The Marlins are paying just $2 million for his services, and if he posts these numbers, he would be a league average pitcher. Actually, quite a bargain.

The only thing that remains to be seen is who has a better season, Zambrano or Volstad?

March 19, 2012; Jupiter FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Carlos Zambrano (left) and center fielder

Thanks for reading the season previews guys. Will have a look at the projections tomorrow! Then the season will kick off on Wednesday. I will have a game preview article up that morning.

In his final season with Chicago, Zambrano finished 9-7 with a 4.82 ERA over 145.2 innings. For the first time in a full season in the majors, Zambrano allowed more hits than innings. Over one quarter of the home runs he gave up for the season came in that messy final start against Atlanta.

Mar 13, 2012; Jupiter, FL. USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Carlos Zambrano (38) delivers a pitch against the Atlanta Braves at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-US PRESSWIRE

Now with the Miami Marlins, Zambrano is focused on delivering for his new team. Pegged for the back end of the Marlins rotation, many believe the change in scenery will help Zambrano refocus in 2012. Looming free agency in 2013 ought to provide a little motivation as well. Zambrano is definitely not worrying about what happened last August.

In his first Grapefruit League start last week, Zambrano gave up 3 runs on 3 hits, and 3 walks in 1 1/3 innings against the Mets. Not a great outing, but Zambrano wasn’t too concerned about it.

After the ineffective Spring Training outing for the Marlins, Zambrano told USA Today he wasn’t thinking about his rocky ending with the Cubs:

“I don’t pay attention to that. I just pay attention that I’m in a new team. They love me here and I want to be here.”

Big Z was much better in his second start, striking out five while allowing only one earned run on two hits, and one walk in four innings. It is this kind of performance from the #4 or 5 starter that could make a big difference in the Marlins’ fortunes this season. There are bound to be the rocky starts popping up during the season, but fans are hoping Miami manager Ozzie Guillen will be able to keep Zambrano’s focus on getting batters out.

Zambrano is only one year removed from a solid 11-6, 3.33 ERA season. The Marlins are hoping that he can deliver that kind of showing in 2012, and Zambrano has plenty of incentive. In addition to looming free agency and a new contract in 2013, Zambrano has a clause in his contract that gives him a $100,000 bonus if he wins Comeback Player of the Year in 2012.

From 2003-2008, Zambrano averaged 210 innings. He has dropped to an average of 148 innings in the three seasons since 2009. The Marlins may not expect him to be the workhorse that he had been at the start of his career, but it isn’t unreasonable to expect that the new environment, new manager, and a little less pressure at the back end of the rotation could help Big Z squeeze out 170 innings.

While staff ace Josh Johnson is still the key to the rotation, a solid season from Anibal Sanchez, and Zambrano in the 4/5 slots of the rotation will have the Marlins contending in late September.

As for Volstad, Zambrano’s counterpart in the Cubs-Marlins deal? He is having a pretty nifty Spring so far in his new Chicago uniform – no runs allowed on three hits in six total innings, striking out four.

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