Now that I got that out of my system, I want to tell you about my recent trip to a Spring Training Game between our Miami Marlins and the Atlanta Braves at Champion Stadium in Orlando. I has such a blast! In the end the Marlins lost 7-6, but I got to see some great baseball and hang out with some great people. Isn’t that what baseball is really all about, having fun?

Okay, I’ll be the first to admit, I have more fun when my team wins; but I know no team is ever going to go 162-0. With that being said, when we do lose I can still enjoy the majesty of the game and the company of the great people around me. Today, for example, I went to the game with my wife and a co-worker. My wife is a die hard Yankees fan and my co-worker is a die hard Braves fan, not a fun mix right? Wrong, they both love baseball! During some of the down time in the game we just started talking baseball. How are the Upton brothers going to do this year? How many times do you think Dan Uggla is going to mess up a play at 2B? What are the Yankees going to do about Curtis Granderson? How many HR is Giancarlo Stanton going to hit? Things like that. Of course, our conversations took a pause when the game continued, but then we picked right back up where we left off. It was great!

Feb 23, 2013; St. Louis, MO, USA; Miami Marlins players celebrate their victory over the St. Louis Cardinals at Roger Dean Stadium. The Marlins defeated the Cardinals 8-3. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

To make things better, we weren’t the only ones talking. When I go to a game I like to crack jokes. Who doesn’t? My only rules are that they have to be tasteful and not crude. So when I see Dan Uggla misplay 4 balls in a row and then finally make a good play, I razz him a little bit. Mind you, I’m in the Braves facility surrounded by Braves fans, but they all had a good laugh and agreed with me, which then got them to start talking to us. They told us stories about the Braves of yester-years, which then got the Marlins fans that were around talking to us too. We all were laughing and joking about our teams. What other sport can have two teams’ fans talking and joking with each other during a game? Not very many.

What finally made this day amazing was that I got to thank one of my Twitter followers in person who was a big help with supporting me for the MLB Fan Cave this year. His name is Danny Morales. Let me tell you, he is a big fan! Starting from the 4th inning on we were talking about nothing except the Marlins’ past, present and future. He is a very brilliant young man who really knows his stuff. Since I live so far away from Miami, it’s always nice to meet a fellow Marlins fan and pick his brain about our team. It was a breath of fresh air to talk about the Marlins with someone in Central Florida and not have it be all negative.

 In the end, as a fan, baseball is supposed to be a form of entertainment. I pay money to go see a game and enjoy my time at the park. With the “Marlins Family” that is what is going to happen. No matter how bad we lose, we can always find solace in the fact that we will be surrounded by our baseball family. We can talk about the past, the present, and the future of our team, and we can even play bleacher coach for an inning or two. Do I want to win? Of course, but in the end as long as I have my Marlins, friends, and family around me at a game, it’s a win in my book.

I’m deeply thankful for everything the game has done for me and I will always remember the great people I met along the way as well. #mlb

— Dontrelle Willis (@D_Train35) July 2, 2012

The Florida Marlins in 2002 traded starter Matt Clement and reliever Antonio Alfonseca for Julian Tavarez and a few other prospects, one of which was 22-year old prospect, Dontrelle Willis. The trade was actually the first trade by new Marlins general manager Larry Beinfest. Willis dominated the minor leagues in 2002, posting a 1.83 ERA in 24 starts with 128 strikeouts and just 24 walks in almost 158 innings. Prior to 2003, Baseball America ranked him as the 43rd best prospect in all of baseball, good for the fourth best prospect in the Marlins organization.

Willis made six starts in Double-A Carolina, posting a 1.46 ERA before the Marlins decided to call upon the talented left handed pitcher. The call-up was due in part to A.J. Burnett‘s elbow issues, which eventually led to Tommy John Surgery.

Willis made his first start on May 9, and Willis lasted six innings and allowed three runs while striking out seven and walking two batters. Willis went onto pitch 160 2/3 innings with a 3.30 ERA and 3.45 FIP in 2003. Willis would win Rookie of the Year award over Brandon Webb and Scott Podsednik. According to Fangraphs, Willis posted a 3.3 WAR in his rookie season. Willis also made the All-Star game in his rookie season.

After a couple of rough outings in the playoffs, Willis was relegated to be a L.O.G.G.Y the rest of the postseason. Even with this demotion, Willis played a huge role in the Marlins becoming World Champions for the second time in their brief history. In fact, Ozzie Guillen, who was the Marlins third base coach in 2003, gives a ton of credit to Willis for the Marlins winning:

“Obviously, it takes 25 guys to win the World Series,’’ Guillen said. “But I think this kid … took the pitching staff to the new level. For two or three months he was unhittable.’’

 

The next season, 2004 was a struggle for Willis, as he posted an 4.02 ERA and 4.01 FIP. Willis, along with the rest of his teammates followed up a great world series run, with a disappointing 2004 season. Even still, Marlins fans were confident that the Willis and the team could turn things around in 2005.

Those fans were correct. In 2005, Dontrelle Willis had the best season of his career in 2005, pitching 236 1/3 innings and posting a 2.63 ERA and 2.99 FIP. According to Fangraphs, Willis posted a 6.8 WAR that season, as he finished up as runner up to Chris Carpenter in the CY Young voting. That 2005 Willis season could go down as the best pitching season in Marlins history. Juan C. Rodriguez wants to know which Marlins pitching season you thought was the best.

(more…)

That being said, Uggla isn’t looking anything like Dunn right now, at least peripherally. Dunn is putting up another excellent season at the plate, with a .263/.399/.530 slash line, good for a 143 OPS+ and a .392 wOBA. He’s posting near-career high numbers this year and should make the All-Star team for the Nationals despite his propensity for strikeouts and horrific defense. Uggla on the other hand has struggled to a .216/.329/.432. What gives?

Well, the hip thing these days is to check BABIP, Batting Average on Balls in Play. BABIP is a statistic which is extremely difficult to control as a hitter, as it measures the number of times you are “hitting it where they ain’t” and is very dependent on the opposing defense. As a result, BABIP has been used as a way to determine whether a player has been “lucky” to have balls fall into outfield holes or through the infield or “unlucky” to have hit pitches on a rope right to defenders. Year-to-year, a league average BABIP is going to be around .300, but this constitutes players of all types and calibers. One can get a general estimate of a player’s expected BABIP by using that player’s career average BABIP or the extremely crude LD% + .120 (check out this article by Derek Carty from a few months back on better estimators for a player’s BABIP).

For ease of reference, let’s look at Uggla’s current BABIP compared to expected totals using the LD% estimation, his career BABIP, the Marcel preseason projection, and Dave Studeman’s revised model stated in the article. Looking at the numbers, this is what we get.

Dan Uggla, BABIP:

Actual BABIP: .228
Career BABIP: .297
LD% BABIP: .289
Marcel BABIP: .307
Studeman BABIP: .277

All of these values are pretty significantly different from each other, and Carty’s article discusses the relation between various estimators and found better methods of measurement which utilize to which I could not find or access. That being said, all of these estimators have Uggla severely underperforming his expected BABIP. This would lead you to believe it’s all been bad luck, and subjectively it has seemed that way; I have witnessed many a Dan Uggla fly ball, line drive, or fliner roped right to a corner outfielder for a loud out this year.

Still, one has to question why his BABIP could even get so low. After all, Uggla’s BABIP ranks 16th to last among major leaguers with at least 100 plate appearances. Some of those names below him are legitimately bad players (Alexi Casilla, Bobby Crosby anyone?), but the list also includes solid to great players such Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Quentin, and Jay Bruce. Bruce in particular seems to have a profile similar to Uggla’s that can shed some light on why their BABIP’s are so astoundingly low. Both players are hitting fly balls at a significantly higher rate than average; Bruce is hitting fly balls on 48.1% of his balls in play, while Uggla has hit fly balls on 51.4% of his balls in play.

Dave Cameron wrote a post recently on Curtis Granderson’s power, noting the Granderson had a similar increase in FB%. Here’s the relevant excerpt:

It hasn’t necessarily made [Granderson] a better hitter overall, though. After posting a .374 wOBA last year, he’s at .366 in 2009. The fly balls come with a trade-off – more outs. His batting average on balls in play has dropped from .317 last year (and .330 for his career) down to .271, and it’s not just bad luck – extreme flyball hitters simply don’t post high BABIPs, because fly balls turn into outs a lot more often than ground balls do.

The average BABIP for the ten guys with a FB% over 50% is .263. Among that group, Granderson’s .271 BABIP actually ranks fourth, well ahead of guys like Dan Uggla, Jason Giambi, and Chris Young.

This increase in fly ball rates always leads to a corresponding decrease in balls hit safely in play, explaining the dramatic batting average dive that Uggla has taken. However, this BABIP effect has not hurt his power numbers dramatically, as his ISO has dropped from .254 last year to .216 this season, likely due to a decreased number of doubles hit. So even as Uggla’s walk rate increases and his power remains solidly in place, his value has decreased due to this new fly-ball propensity and a bit of bad luck.

Except that this isn’t new for Uggla. These are his FB% each of his first four years.

2006: 42.2%
2007: 50.5%
2008: 48.1%
2009: 51.4%

He has been posting similar fly-ball profiles the last three seasons. Uggla’s maintained a fairly consistent LD%, meaning these FB% typically are fluctuating only with his ground ball rates. Here are his rates for the last three years.

2007: 33.8%
2008; 36.2%
2009: 31.7%

It’s no surprise that his “good” and “bad” seasons have appeared accordingly to his GB/FB rates. His breakout year last year combined increasing patience and a drastically improved plate approach with what may be the right ratio of ground balls to fly balls for Uggla. His 2007 and 2009 so far have been littered with fly balls that have landed in the gloves of outfielders, even as his walk rates improved and his LD% remained steady.

There’s reason to believe regression to the mean will occur. In 2007, Uggla posted a .286 BABIP in route to a .245/.337/.432, and there’s no reason that Uggla won’t be able to put up numbers close to that this year. ZiPS updated season-end projections have Uggla at a .252/.337/.460 line that I feel probably underrates his improved walk rate. I’m looking forward to a line closer to .250/.350/.475, perhaps a bit optimistic but certainly attainable. The key here is that with Uggla’s fly-ball hitting, he’ll never post a high average and you can expect to see a decrease in doubles that will hurt his slugging percentage if he can’t improve on his home run power. That being said, he can still maintain great value as a power hitter for the next few years.