April 14, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria before a game against the Houston Astros at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

There has been a lot of chatter that with the slow start for the Miami Marlins that the team might be in contention for being one of the worst teams in Major League history. A lot of the chatter started before the season, despite Baseball Prospectus’ projections projecting the Marlins to avoid an embarrassing 100-loss season.

The chatter lately has been due to the Marlins slow 5-16 start in their first 21 games. The San Diego Padres are only one behind the Marlins in the loss column and the Houston Astros 25-man roster is actually worse than the Marlins. Most of the angst that hangs around the Marlins is more directed at owner Jeffery Loria, not as much as the on-field product.

The Marlins are more talented than a 5-16 team and they will start to play better as their star, Giancarlo Stanton, starts to heat up. Yes, the Marlins will be bad in 2013, but they are still far away from being historically bad in my honest opinion.

Answer the poll on the bottom of the post and let me know what you guys think about this Marlins’ teams chances of being historically bad.

Miguel Cabrera, Fish Stripes reflect on potential Marlins – Angels trade in 2007 | Fishstripes

Miguel Cabrera and the Detroit Tigers spent the past weekend battling the Los Angeles Angels in a repeat matchup between last year’s MVP candidates. Cabrera and Mike Trout were on opposite sides of the MVP race, but when questioned, Cabrera wondered what it would be like to play for the Angels, given that he was so close to doing so back in 2008.

Miami Marlins continue to look good for acquiring Justin Ruggiano | Fishstripes

It wasn’t a fire sale trade, and it most likely won’t be remembered as one of the best baseball deals in Miami Marlins history. Trading for outfielder Justin Ruggiano last May, when the Marlins were in need of an outfielder and some offense, is a move that continues to make the Marlins’ scouts and baseball executives look like they actually have an idea of how to put a winning baseball team together.

Miami Marlins’ Greg Dobbs keeps upbeat view | Miami Herald

The Marlins are playing bad baseball and languishing in last place. But after dropping the first game of Monday’s day-night doubleheader to fall to 4-16 — the worst record at the 20-game mark in franchise history — Greg Dobbs vowed the losing won’t continue.

Stanton turning into ground ball machine | Sun-Sentinel

Not only is Stanton not hitting home runs, he’s become a ground ball machine. Though Stanton’s fly ball rate according to Fangraphs actually has jumped from 41.7 percent in 2012 to 46.4 percent (through Monday), his ground ball rate also has spiked.

Despite Bad Start, Mike Redmond is Right Man for Miami Marlins | Rant Sports

Managing a Major League Baseball team is probably kind of like driving a car. It is easy to drive the perfect car down a smooth road on fresh tires and a full tank of gas and look like a great driver. That isn’t to say the person driving isn’t great, they may very well be. How much more of a great driver does it take however to drive a clunker with bald tires down a windy and messed up road? Sure the guy in the second car might look like a bad driver but he isn’t necessarily. Such is the case of Miami Marlins manager Mike Redmond.

Here at Marlin Maniac:

Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins Series Preview: Marlins First Interleague Series

The Miami Marlins continue to struggle early on in the season, their record currently sits at an embarrassing 4-15. The team is currently the worst in the majors, but the Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, and San Diego Padres are not too far behind. Giancarlo Stanton finally collected his first RBI of the season yesterday and had two hits on the day in a 10-6 loss to the Cincinnati Reds. The team hopes he can continue to build off of that.

Miami Marlins-Minnesota Twins Game Postponed; Double Header Tomorrow

Due to the threat of a snowstorm moving in, the Minnesota Twins and Major League Baseball have decided to postpone their game with the Miami Marlins tonight.

Thoughts On The Direction Of The Miami Marlins

When the Marlins decided to trade away Hanley Ramirez, Omar Infante, Gaby Sanchez, and Anibal Sanchez at the trade deadline last season, the reality of yet another re-building process was beginning to set into a lot of peoples mind’s here in South Florida. With these trades being approved, the Marlins had all but given up on the season. Finishing last in the division, many people thought that it couldn’t get any worse and then it happened. On November 19th, 2012, the Miami Marlins shot their fans and players right in the heart after they traded Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Emilio Bonifacio, Mark Buehrle, and John Buck to the Toronto Blue Jays for Yunel Escobar, Jeff Mathis and prospects.

Miami Marlins Try To Bring Sunshine To Target Field 

Although the schedule called for two games to be played in Minnesota, the late season snow forced the third reschedule of the season for the Twins. Instead, we have a split doubleheader today, with games at 2:10 and 8:10 (ET).

Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins Game Preview: Tuesday, April 23th 2 PM EST (Game 20)

The Miami Marlins and Minnesota Twins will play a split double header today to make up for the game that was postponed due to the snowstorm that moved through the area yesterday. This is the Marlins only trip to Minnesota to see the beautiful Target Field.

Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins Game Preview: Tuesday, April 23th 8 PM EST (Game 21)

The Miami Marlins dropped the first game of the double header to the Minnesota Twins by the final score of 4-3. Jose Fernandez labored through his fourth career start. Alex will have the game recap for the first game up in a little while.

Miami Marlins Drop Game One Of DH To Minnesota Twins 3-4

In game one of the interleague doubleheader between the Miami Marlins and Minnesota Twins, the Marlins fell by a score of 3-4. The Marlins offense managed one walk and eight strikeouts against the Twins today.

Rob Brantly, Giancarlo Stanton Lead Miami Marlins To Victory Over Minnesota Twins, 8-5

After dropping the first game of their double header with the Minnesota Twins, the Miami Marlins were able to bounce back in a huge way. The Marlins offense tied a season high scoring eight runs and picked up a season high 16 hits on the night.

The scenario is sadly familiar for this franchise as just seven years prior, then Florida Marlin, Miguel Cabrera found himself in the exact same predicament entering his fourth big league season also as a 23 year old.  Maybe Cabrera’s 2006 season can help provide some clues on what to expect from Stanton this season.

June 10, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (27) reacts after striking out swinging during the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Tampa Bay Rays won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The concepts of “line up protection” and “getting pitched around” affecting a particular hitter’s production is debatable.  It is difficult to prove statistically how a pitcher changes strategies because a hitter of a lesser or better quality is in the on deck circle.  Logically, however, you would think that if a pitcher finds himself facing Stanton with a base open and sees Greg Dobbs coming up next, he would elect to throw nothing close to the strike zone.  The question for Stanton becomes will he have the discipline to lay off those pitches and take a base on balls or will he choose to swing at pitches out of the strike zone thus producing more strike outs or weakly hit balls?  Let’s look at what we know about Stanton’s tendencies so far.

Giancarlo Stanton’s brief big league history has shown him to be a typical slugger when it comes to strike outs meaning there are plenty swings and misses in his game.  His career strike out rate stands at 28.9% of his plate appearances and his contact percentage on swing attempts is about 68%.  Last year’s top 10 home run leaders had a cumulative strike out rate of 22.7%.  Stanton’s career walk rate is about 10% of plate appearances which again is about typical for that top 10 home run hitters group where the walk rate was about 11% last season.  From an on base percentage perspective his career mark stands at .350 including a career high of .361 last season.  Having this information as a background, let’s look to see if and how Miguel Cabrera’s season was affected by the mass turnover in the Marlins 2006 lineup.

The offseason prior to the 2006 season the Marlins had just executed their latest fire sale trading away established stars Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, Carlos Delgado and Juan Pierre.  Cabrera had already been a two time All Star himself and had posted a terrific slash line of .323/.385/.561 in the season prior.  The 2005 season had been his best to date as he established career highs in batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage as well as tying his career high with 33 home runs.  Still, there were questions coming into the season as to how Cabrera’s production would be affected by having no “protection” in the line up.  If you were to judge his season by what happened on one June night of that season when he swung at and singled on an intentional walk attempt by the Orioles you may surmise that Cabrera was overcome with desperation.  However, why don’t we examine what really happened over the full season using the same metrics discussed for Stanton.

Coming into 2006, Cabrera had established a career strike out rate of 20.8% and a contact percentage of about 75%.  Cabrera’s superior ability to solidly connect the bat with the ball is what makes him one of the best overall hitters in the game, but his walk rate was a tick below Stanton’s at about 9%.  The data from the 2006 season suggests that a change in Cabrera’s approach to hitting and opposing pitchers approach to him did occur.  Maybe it was due in part to the perceived lack of “protection” in the line up, but was also likely attributable to Cabrera’s continuing maturation as a major league hitter.  Whatever the reason, the 2006 season saw Cabrera lower his strike out rate to 16% and improve his walk rate to almost 13%.  He lowered his strike outs by 17 and walked 22 more times than in the 2005 season and his on base percentage improved from .385 to .430.  Cabrera again set career highs in all three triple slash categories with an outstanding .339/.430/.568 line and finished in the top 5 in MVP voting despite playing on a fourth place team.

It is unfair to expect a similar level of improvement from Stanton this season as he is being compared to one of the elite hitters of this generation and, in truth, that “weak” 2006 Marlins lineup included breakout years by Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla and Josh Willingham.  However, what we do see is that it is possible for the lack of protection Stanton is expected to get from the lineup to actually turn into a positive for him personally if he adapts his approach and can take advantage of the opportunities he does get.  Which direction do you expect Stanton’s production to go in this season?

Cabrera collected three hits in the game, including a two-run double in the first to give Venezuela a 2-0 early lead. Cabrera also hit a home run in the seventh inning in a 3 all tie to give Venezuela a late lead.

The starting pitcher for team Venezuela was another former Marlin, Carlos Zambrano. Big Z threw two scoreless innings against his former employer, striking out two hitters while walking one.

Current Marlins starter Henderson Alvarez also pitched for Venezuela, completing his one inning without allowing a base runner and striking out one hitter.

Coghlan’s Big Night

Chris Coghlan continues to have a breakout spring for the Miami Marlins. Coghlan went 4-for-4 on Tuesday night, including a lead off hit to start the Marlins rally in the ninth inning. Coghlan has gone 10-for-22 so far this spring, good for a .454 batting average.

If Coghlan can continue to give the Marlins this type of performance in spring, he will have a great shot at breaking camp with the team, even potentially as a starter. I believe Coghlan may get a chance to play some infield soon, as the Marlins will want to maximize his at-bats, especially if Polanco continues to deal with injury woes.

Outfielder Bryan Petersen delivered a huge hit for the Miami Marlins on Tuesday night, propelling the team to a 6-5 win over Venezuela. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Petersen’s Walk-Off Triple

The hero for the Marlins on this night was Bryan Petersen though. After back-to-back singles for Coghlan and Zack Cox and a strikeout by Jake Marisnick, Petersen laced the game-winning triple to center field.

Petersen is in contention for one of the Marlins fourth/fifth outfield spots on the roster. Right now, he is probably a long shot to make the team, but he can only help his case with a performance like last night.

Juan Pierre also provided a big hit, coming up with a two-run, ground-rule double in the fifth inning.

LeBlanc Struggles

Lefty Wade LeBlanc struggled in his outing Tuesday night. LeBlanc labored through his 2 2/3 innings, allowing seven hits, walking two, and allowing three runs. LeBlanc did not strike out a single hitter on the evening.

LeBlanc’s start set him back in his quest to win the fifth starting spot in the Marlins rotation. Luckily for Wade, he will have plenty of more opportunities to make a comeback from this poor start.

Jose Fernandez relieved LeBlanc and finished the evening going 1 1/3 innings. Fernandez struck out and walked one hitter. Fernandez has yet to make a Grapefruit league appearance, but has done well in both his outing thus far. His performance against one of the better rosters in the World Baseball Classic was a good sign for the Marlins going forward.

Up next: Tom Koehler makes his first Grapefruit League starter as he faces the Cardinals at Roger Dean Stadium on Wednesday. Jake Westbrook will make the start for the St. Louis Cardinals. Third baseman Placido Polanco is expected to return to Miami’s lineup. He has been out since Saturday with back spasms. 

Soon after, the inevitable question came up, “is Stanton next,” or “how much time does Stanton left as a Marlin?”

Even though he has been away from the Marlins since Saturday, Giancarlo Stanton has remained in the headlines . Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The only time I even to bother to listen to or read any Stanton rumors these days are when they come from a reputable source. Those sources for me include Ken Rosenthal, Buster Olney, Jayson Stark, and a few others.

One of those other sources that I would trust would trust would be Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. This is what Cafardo had to say in his column on Sunday about Stanton:

Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Marlins — One AL executive makes a good point: never rule out the Tigers as a major player for Stanton when the time comes. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski has strong ties to the Marlins from his time with them. He also appears to have the chips in third baseman/outfielder Nick Castellanos, outfielder Avisail Garcia, righty Rick Porcello, and others.

Such a trade makes no sense to me at all. For one, Rick Porcello is already making $5 million this upcoming season and has two years left of arbitration left after this season. He would already be priced out of the Marlins range. That would make him an unlikely part of the package the Tigers could offer the Marlins.

Secondly, while Nick Castellanos is an intriguing prospect, coming in as the 21st best prospect according to Baseball America, he should not be the type of player the Marlins should target to headline a package for someone of Stanton’s caliber. The Marlins should be demanding a top 10 overall prospect to be the headliner in such a package.

Finally, while Baseball America rates Avisal Garcia as the 74th best prospect in baseball, there is a lot about him that concerns me about his future. For one, Garcia is too aggressive for his own good, which leads to a horrible walk rate, which is worse because he has a high strikeout rate. Also, Garcia is going to be a player that is largely dependent on his BABIP in order to be successful in the pros. The Marlins have a minimum of two prospects in the minors that are better than him, maybe even a third.

Unless the “others” that Cafardo’s American League scout mentions are Justin Verlander or Miguel Cabrera, it would be hard to imagine the Tigers making an enticing enough offer for Stanton’s services.

For those fans pointing out that the Marlins got nothing big in return for Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis, in hind-sight, that maybe true, but at the time of the trade, the Marlins received two of the best prospects in all of baseball. It just so happened those prospects never panned out.

Let me know your thoughts in the comment section.

Stanton Makes T.V. Appearance

Stanton made an appearance on the E! series After Lately, a spin-off of Chelsea Lately on Monday night. Stanton was apart of the storyline with cast member Sarah Colonna.

If you missed it, the episode will air again later today at 8:30 PM EST on E!. This will be the first opportunity for Marlins fans to see Stanton doing something other than playing baseball.

Stanton Awes Teammate Mark Texiera

In baseball related Stanton news, apparently, Stanton stole the show during the first team USA workout. According to Danny Knobler of CBS Sports all the other players on the USA roster had their eyes glued to Stanton’s batting practice.

One of his teammates, Mark Texiera, gave Stanton’s BP a rave review:

“I’ve never seen anything like it,” Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira said. “I’ve played with a lot of guys headed for the Hall of Fame, but I’ve never seen anything like it.”

Tex especially cautioned that his car maybe in danger if Stanton continues to swing like he does:

“I think I was OK because my car is in Tampa,” Teixeira said. “Although, with the right wind, he still might be able to hit it.”

Some high praise from one of the better hitters in baseball. Stanton’s name will only continue to grow as more of the public will get to see him play in the World Baseball Classic.

Marlins fans, enjoy him as much as you can, before he is inevitably traded off like every other great Marlin.

I’m deeply thankful for everything the game has done for me and I will always remember the great people I met along the way as well. #mlb

— Dontrelle Willis (@D_Train35) July 2, 2012

The Florida Marlins in 2002 traded starter Matt Clement and reliever Antonio Alfonseca for Julian Tavarez and a few other prospects, one of which was 22-year old prospect, Dontrelle Willis. The trade was actually the first trade by new Marlins general manager Larry Beinfest. Willis dominated the minor leagues in 2002, posting a 1.83 ERA in 24 starts with 128 strikeouts and just 24 walks in almost 158 innings. Prior to 2003, Baseball America ranked him as the 43rd best prospect in all of baseball, good for the fourth best prospect in the Marlins organization.

Willis made six starts in Double-A Carolina, posting a 1.46 ERA before the Marlins decided to call upon the talented left handed pitcher. The call-up was due in part to A.J. Burnett‘s elbow issues, which eventually led to Tommy John Surgery.

Willis made his first start on May 9, and Willis lasted six innings and allowed three runs while striking out seven and walking two batters. Willis went onto pitch 160 2/3 innings with a 3.30 ERA and 3.45 FIP in 2003. Willis would win Rookie of the Year award over Brandon Webb and Scott Podsednik. According to Fangraphs, Willis posted a 3.3 WAR in his rookie season. Willis also made the All-Star game in his rookie season.

After a couple of rough outings in the playoffs, Willis was relegated to be a L.O.G.G.Y the rest of the postseason. Even with this demotion, Willis played a huge role in the Marlins becoming World Champions for the second time in their brief history. In fact, Ozzie Guillen, who was the Marlins third base coach in 2003, gives a ton of credit to Willis for the Marlins winning:

“Obviously, it takes 25 guys to win the World Series,’’ Guillen said. “But I think this kid … took the pitching staff to the new level. For two or three months he was unhittable.’’

 

The next season, 2004 was a struggle for Willis, as he posted an 4.02 ERA and 4.01 FIP. Willis, along with the rest of his teammates followed up a great world series run, with a disappointing 2004 season. Even still, Marlins fans were confident that the Willis and the team could turn things around in 2005.

Those fans were correct. In 2005, Dontrelle Willis had the best season of his career in 2005, pitching 236 1/3 innings and posting a 2.63 ERA and 2.99 FIP. According to Fangraphs, Willis posted a 6.8 WAR that season, as he finished up as runner up to Chris Carpenter in the CY Young voting. That 2005 Willis season could go down as the best pitching season in Marlins history. Juan C. Rodriguez wants to know which Marlins pitching season you thought was the best.

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