This will series will mark the first time that the Phillies will have a chance to play in the Marlins new state of the art ballpark. The series will be a battle to see which teams wants last place more in the National League. This series will also feature Chase Utley returning for his just his third game of the season in 2012.

The Marlins are 2-4 on their current home-stand, only a sweep can give them a winning record for home-stand, but I am pretty sure the team will be very happy with a series win.

Chase Utley homered in his first at-bat back from the Disabled List against the Pirates Wednesday, (Image: Howard Smith-US PRESSWIRE)

Stadium: Marlins Park

Five-year Run PF*: N/A
Five-year HR PF*: N/A
Stadium Dimensions:
Left field line—340 ft.
Left-center field—384 ft.
Center field—416 ft.
Right-center field—392 ft.
Right field line—335 ft.

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

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This series will be a very intriguing one with a division foe. Both teams are fighting extremely hard for last place in the National League East. Neither team wants the other to outdo them in sucking!

The first two games will provide us with some great pitching match-ups, and the last one could be a pretty ugly game, pitching wise at least. Justin Klugh, the senior editor of the Philadelphia Phillies Fansided site, That Balls Outta Here, was kind enough to have a little chat with us to preview the series. I think I made him mad with one of my questions:

Just answered some questions from @ehsank24 that made me really mad at Joe Blanton already.

— Justin Klugh (@TBOHblog) June 29, 2012

Here is a look at our chat:

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Hanley Ramirez celebrates monster day and victory with teammate Jose Reyes. (Image: Howard Smith-US PRESSWIRE)

The Marlins picked up a win after dropping the first game of the month of June. The win was an imporantant one for a team that only won a total of five games in the entire month of June in 2011. The win moved the Marlins to 1-1 for the month, after posting a franchise best 21-8 record in the month of May.

The game did not start as planned for the Marlins. The team was down 1-0 after the first inning. Juan Pierre led the first inning off with a single for the Phillies and later scored on a Carlos Ruiz single. The Phillies would then tack on two more runs on a Hunter Pence two-run home run in the third.

With a 3-0 lead, at home, with their ace on the mound, the Phillies looked well on their way to a second straight victory over the recently hot Marlins. But that is when Hanley Ramirez took over the game. With the bases empty in the fourth inning, Hanley Ramirez sent a ball into the the bleachers to cut the Phillies lead to 3-1. The home run was not without controversy, as the umpires had to review it to make sure that a fan did not reach over to grab the ball before it went out. Replays showed that a kid reached out for the ball, but the umpires determined that the ball was in fact leaving anyways, so the home run call stood as called.

The Marlins would then add on another run in the in the same inning, when Justin Ruggiano drove in Logan Morrison on a double. It was the right handers fourth at-bat as a Marlin, and his second big hit. Ruggiano hit his first home run as a Marlin last night in a pinch hitting role. Ruggiano’s big hit cut the Phillies lead down to just one run.

In the sixth inning, it was Hanley time again. After Omar Infante reached base on an infield single, Hanley took Hamels deep for the second time in the afternoon.  It was the tenth of the season for Ramirez, and the second of the game. Ramirez now has the team record of most multi-homer games at 12. Ramirez’s second home run also moved him into sole possession of the second spot in Marlins home run franchise history.

More importantly, the two-run shot gave the Marlins a 4-3 lead over the Phillies. The Marlins were able to add onto the lead with an insurance run in the seventh inning. After Chris Coghlan led the inning off with a walk, Ricky Nolasco laid down a sacrifice bunt to get Coghlan to second. Jose Reyes then extended his hitting streak to 12 games with a two-out double to extend the Marlins lead to 5-3.

That insurance run proved to be important for the Marlins an inning later. Ozzie Guillen decided to send out Ricky Nolasco out for the 8^th inning. Jimmy Rollins led the inning off with a triple. That was followed by a Juan Pierre walk. Ozzie then made the move for Steve Cishek. Cishek deserves the credit for the save in this game as he came into a higher leverage situation and performed his duties exceptionally.

After allowing a sacrifice fly score Rollins and cut the Marlins lead to 5-4, Cishek was able to strikeout Carlos Ruiz. Cishek then walked Shane Victorino, before he got long-time Marlin killer, Ty Wigginton, to strike out swinging, on a nasty slider. Cishek continued his excellent pitching in his young career and essentially saved the game for the Marlins on this afternoon.

Ozzie Guillen stuck with Nolasco too long, only because Nolasco had a low pitch count. Nolasco had not been dominant in this appearance and was about to go through the Phillies lineup for the fourth time. Traditionally, the fourth time does not result in successful numbers for a pitcher. Ozzie should have gone to Cishek to start the inning off, but he decided to wait and it almost cost the Marlins the lead.

In the ninth inning, Heath Bell was brought in again. As Marlins fans have grown accustomed to the past few seasons, no save opportunity ever goes smoothly for the team.  Placido Polanco started the ninth with a lead-off single with to start the ninth, Bell was able to recollect himself and retire the next three hitters to finish off the game. Bell recorded no strikeouts on this afternoon, which has been a major part of his turnaround of late, but he still looked decent.

Giancarlo Stanton has not started the month of June out in the same fashion as his May. Stanton is now 1-for-7 this month with four strikeouts.  It’s just two games into the month, so this should not be read into much though.

Tomorrow these two teams will be right back at it to finish off the three game series. The pitching match-up will be Joe Blanton for the Phillies and Carlos Zambrano for the Marlins. The Marlins on paper hold the advantage, but it should still be a close game.

Prediction: Marlins win the game and series. Zambrano hits a home run to give the Marlins the lead for good in the fourth inning. Marlins win the ball game 7-5. Heath Bell picks up another save.

Apr 11, 2012; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Miami Marlins ace Josh Johnson labored through his worst career start Wednesday evening. (Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-US PRESSWIRE)

Source: FanGraphs

The game got off on the right foot for the Marlins. Emilio Bonifacio hit a dribbler and was able to beat it out for an infield single. Halladay made an errant throw, but luckily for the Phillies, their defense was able to make sure the speedy Bonifacio could not advance.

Next up, Hanley Ramirez squared up on the ball and lined in almost 400 feet away, unfortunately for Hanley, Shane Victorino was able to make a nice over the shoulder catch to retire the Marlins third baseman. Giancarlo Stanton followed with a base hit and Logan Morrison walked to load the bases off of the two-time CY Young Award winner.

Gaby Sanchez grounded out weakly to short stop to end the inning. The Marlins were unable to put any runs on the board. Right then, you knew that opportunity was going to comeback and bite the Marlins.

The Marlins lone run of the evening came in the second inning. Omar Infante just missed another homer, but was happy to settle for a double. He advanced to third on John Buck‘s ground out and Josh Johnson drove him in on a ground out.

Josh Johnson was able to get through the first two innings. The Marlins were looking good with a 1-0 lead. Roy Halladay was struggling against the Marlins lineup. After retiring the side in the third, Doc was already at 50 pitches.

That is when the wheels fell off for the Marlins. The Phillies were able to plate six runs in the third inning and sent 10 hitters to the plate. Two of the three outs for Josh Johnson happened to be Roy Halladay himself.

A look at Johnson’s pitch plot shows his struggles to locate his pitches. Johnson threw 41 pitches in the third inning alone, 83 for the evening, before being taken out in the fourth inning after allowing another run. Johnson fell behind 4 of the 7 hitters in that third inning after the first pitch.

Location was not the only issue for Johnson, though. In the past, when Johnson has been at his best, his average velocity of his fastball has been right around 94 MPH. Last night, Johnson was only able to average 92.5 on his fastball. Against the St. Louis Cardinals, Johnson only got up to 93 MPH.

Johnson’s struggles were not the only problem for this Miami Marlins team in that third inning. Marlins fans took noticeable exception with a horribly missed call. In that third inning, with one out and the Phillies yet to score, Juan Pierre took off to steal second base. John Buck threw out the speedy outfielder, but the umpire called Pierre safe. Multiple looks at the replay showed that Pierre was out. Then things unraveled for the Marlins.

But the thing we need to look at is how much did that missed call cost the Marlins? Michael Jong of Fishstripes has that one figured out.

Using the run expectancy matrix listed here for the most recent era, the difference between those two base-out states is about 0.6 runs, meaning that the ref cost us almost two-thirds of a run with that blown call.

 

Some might want to blame the umpire for the (close) blown call at second base, but that only cost the Fish 0.6 runs. The team shot itself in the foot for an additional full run on mistakes in the outfield, so it has very few people to blame but themselves for letting the game get out of hand.

 

As Michael pointed out, the Marlins lost only two-thirds of a run on that missed call. The rest falls on Josh Johnson for not retiring hitters and the Marlins defense for not making plays.

I will let Michael explain how the Marlins defense cost the Marlins more runs then that blown call:

It did not help that the Marlins’ defense faltered multiple times that inning. Placido Polanco followed the steal with a single to left field, and Logan Morrison missed the cutoff man on a throw to home plate, allowing Polanco to advance to second, costing the Fish a quarter of a run. Jimmy Rollins followed singled into left-center field and Morrison was there to cut it off. Unfortunately, he slipped in the outfield grass and allowed Polanco to advance to second base on an error. That error cost the Marlins another quarter of a run. Morrison followed that play with another mistake in airmailing another throw home and allowing Hunter Pence‘s RBI single to move him to second base. In that exchange, Morrison cost the Marlins three-quarters of a run with mistakes tacked onto the additional three runs that did actually score. This was followed by Giancarlo Stanton missing a diving, but makeable catch in right-center field which led to a series of events that eventually brought two more runners home via a Freddy Galvis double.

 

Yes, Marlins fans, you have every right to be pissed off about that missed call. We have no idea how that inning may have turned out if the umpire made the proper call and called out Pierre. What we also do not know is that how the inning would have played out if Logan Morrison and Giancarlo Stanton made the plays they were supposed to.

Blame the umpire all you want, the Marlins still needed to make the pitches and the plays to get the outs. They did not. End of story. The umpire did not cos the Marlins this game. They cost themselves this game.

Tonight is another big night for Miami sports. The Miami Heat will take on the Chicago Bulls over on TNT. On MLB Network or on FSN Florida, you can catch the finale of this series. The Marlins have a good chance to take the series against the Phillies. The Marlins will send out Mark Buehrle to pitch. The Phillies will be sending out Joe Blanton.

If the Marlins bats can bounce back, this is a very winnable game for the Marlins.

Prediction: Marlins win 7-2

Apr 7, 2012; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Miami Marlins players celebrate at the end of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ballpark. The Marlins defeated the Reds 8-3. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-US PRESSWIRE