Feb 18, 2013; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays infielder Jose Reyes (7) during photo day at Florida Auto Exchange Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

We are a month into the 2013 season, so I thought it might be interesting to check into the results of the Blue Jays – Marlins trade from this past offseason.  The Blue Jays expected this trade, along with a few other moves they made, to put them in the driver’s seat to win the division.  The Marlins contend that, from a pure baseball standpoint, this was an excellent move on their part.  (And, oh yeah, the Rays and Mets sort of got in on the action a bit later as well by acquiring Yunel Escobar and John Buck, but I will leave them out to avoid cluttering things up too much). 

Let’s take a look at how the players have fared for their new teams so far:

Blue Jays

Marlins

The Blue Jays have received a combined 0.2 WAR from the 4 players they received in the deal.  Jose Reyes was actually playing well with a .395/.465/.526 slash line and .434 wOBA before injuring his ankle after 10 games played.  The injury was supposed to keep him out for a month and he has yet to return.  Bonifacio has been bad both at the plate and in the field and has been relegated to a bench role.  Both Johnson and Buehrle are sporting 6+ ERAs and have won only 1 game between them.  Johnson missed his last start due to triceps soreness, but is expected to return for his next scheduled start.  The Blue Jays as a team are currently in last place in the AL East with a record of 10-17 on the season, just 2 more wins than the Marlins.

The Marlins at the major league level have gotten only 52 fruitless plate appearances from Adeiny Hechavarria before he succumbed to an elbow injury 14 games into the season.  Pitcher Henderson Alvarez and catcher Jeff Mathis were both injured in spring training and have yet to return.  Surprisingly, of the 12 players involved in the trade the best season so far has come from the least heralded participant, minor league pitcher Anthony Desclafani who is 4-1 with a 0.44 ERA. 

As much as I hate to say it, so far Loria and the Marlins look justified in having made this trade performance wise.  All of the players they traded away have been terrible or injured or both (except Buck!).  Even though the Marlins have received next to nothing on the field at the major league level from the players they received, off the field the savings in salary clearly makes them the winners so far (if only they had reinvested those savings in obtaining better players!).  That being said, neither side could have imagined the performances would be this bad.  I’ll continue to check in on the players involved throughout the season to see if things improve as some of the injured players get healthy and report back.

Sept 14, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (27) stands between second and third base during the third inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Marlins Park. The Marlins won 4-0. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Before I get into this article, I would just like to introduce myself to everyone. My name is Justen and I am the newest addition to the staff of excellent writers here at Marlin Maniac. I also write for PhinPhanatic.com, a site that revolves around the Miami Dolphins football team. Before I began writing for the Dolphins, I wrote for two sites for the Florida Panthers hockey team; therattrick.com and pantherparkway.com. I am excited to share with you my opinions and beliefs about the Miami Marlins and encourage you to write some feedback whether it is negative or positive! Now let’s talk about what I am expecting from the struggling Miami Marlins organization this year.

Not to be a downer, but I honestly believe this is going to be one of the worst years in the history of the Miami Marlins franchise. Let’s face it, last season every Marlin fan across the country was thoroughly disappointed with the Marlins on and off the field. The 2011-2012’ season was set to be a big one. With free agents such as Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, Mark Buehrle and champion head coach Ozzie Guillen coming in, along with current players such as Giancarlo Stanton, Hanley Ramirez, and Josh Johnson, many believed the Marlins would go onto win the National League East and have a possible chance to play in the Fall Classic (World Series). With the big money finally being spent and a brand new state of the art ballpark, Marlins fans were buzzing with excitement. Unfortunately the buzz was short lived, as the Marlins started off the season on a bad note, losing 3 out of their first four games. Despite this, people didn’t lose hope. Miami natives know that big time signings take time to develop as we are all familiar with the Miami Heat.

However, the Marlins were never able to take that next step in the process of being able to win the division, let alone a game. Towards the end of April, the Marlins were looking to begin like failures, as they lost 8 out of 10 games. Heading into the month of May, the Marlins weren’t looking like the team they were drawn out to be; however, something suddenly changed, and the Marlins started winning again. The Marlins were easily the best team in baseball during the month of May. With the team back on track, hope was once again restored in the Miami community. People were coming to games, the team was being recognized by the national media, and most importantly they were winning ball games. Unfortunately, this didn’t last long. In fact, when the month of May was over the Marlins continued to struggle as they started to lose grip of the season.

If you remember watching the Showtime series “The Franchise”, you might remember hearing owner Jeffery Loria saying he would put this team up against anybody. That was an obvious lie. During the trade deadline Loria might have been the busiest person in the league; however, he wasn’t trying to go out and get another player that could hopefully salvage the season. Instead, he was busy sabotaging the season. Hanley Ramirez, Omar Infante, Anibal Sanchez, Edward Mujica, and Gaby Sanchez were all traded away within the days leading to and on the trade deadline. The Marlins season was over and clearly at this point they were looking towards the future.

While it was possible to defend some of these moves at the deadline, it is impossible to defend what happened in the offseason. Not only did Loria lose hope from the players, but also from the fans. On November 19^th, the Marlins sent Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Emilio Bonifacio, Jose Reyes, and John Buck to the Toronto Blue Jays for almost nothing. In fact, the only decent player in that trade was infielder Yunel Escobar. Oh, and guess what, the Marlins traded him a few weeks later for a minor league prospect.  Not only that, but the Marlins didn’t really do anything in free agency. Asides from Juan Pierre, they didn’t exactly sign players that really have any relevance to the league.

This year is going to be a lot like all the other years in my opinion. Other than opening night, this team doesn’t have the ability to sell out games. I think it is going to be one miserable year for us Marlin fans. Recently Jose Reyes came out saying that he feels bad for Giancarlo Stanton and quite frankly, I do too. Stanton is one amazing ball player. He could literally do it all. At one point he was the future of the Marlins, but with everything that has gone on with this franchise; he could very well be the future for another team.

A few seasons ago I remember the Marlins doing a promotion called “Work Force Monday”.  If you didn’t have a job, all you had to do was show proof and you would get free tickets. I remember going with my grandfather, who, at the time was unemployed. They were literally giving tickets away and you would still be able to pick where you want to sit, due to the fact that no one would go to the games. I’m expecting A LOT of that this year. Not necessarily the giving away free tickets, but the fact that this stadium will be empty. Sure, it is a beautiful stadium and if you haven’t had the opportunity to go to it, then you are surely missing out. Even though the stadium is very nice, I don’t think people are going to be attending these games.

This hurts to say, but I think the Marlins are going to suffer yet another last place finish. First year coach and former Marlins catcher Mike Redmond is certainly going to have his work cut out for him; however, I don’t think he will be able to succeed as a coach in the city of Miami.

Thanks for Reading!

Follow Me on Twitter: @JustenRosenberg

Last offseason the Marlins were the talk of baseball. They team was undergoing a complete makeover – new uniforms and logo, a new stadium, new manager, new shortstop, new closer, and new starter. There was hope and optimism. How quickly it all disappears after a 69-93 season, as word first came out Tuesday evening that the team had agreed to a blockbuster 12-player deal with the Toronto Blue Jays – drastically altering both team’s rosters.

Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle, two of the team’s biggest signings a year ago, will head to Toronto in the deal, along with Josh Johnson, Emilio Bonifacio, and John Buck, plus $4 Million in cash. Gone are the team’s top two starting pitchers. Gone are the team’s top threats to get on base in front of Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton, in fact, is the only player to appear in Miami’s lineup on Opening Day this past season that remains on the roster.

Returning to the Marlins are seven players: shortstops Adeiny Hechavarria and Yunel Escobar, outfielder Jake Marisnick, catcher Jeff Mathis, right-handers Henderson Alvarez and Anthony DeSclafani, and left-hander Justin Nicolino.

Marlins fans, those that can find it in their hearts to attend games this coming season, will grow fond of Adeiny Hechavarria‘s defensive abilities at shortstop. (Image Credit: Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE)

Hechavarria and Escobar are the two players who’ll likely have the most immediate impact on Miami, at least in terms of playing time. Hechavarria, a 23 year old Cuban defector who signed with Toronto prior to the 2010 season, is likely the favorite to take over at shortstop for Reyes, though the two are far different players. Hechavarria is known for being a standout defensive player, but his bat has yet to develop and what type of offensive player he will be is far from certain. He made his MLB Debut for the Blue Jays towards the end of the 2012 season, hitting .254/.280/.365 in 137 plate appearances over 41 games. Over three minor league seasons preceding his callup he batted .272/.314/.381 with a high strikeout tendency.

Escobar will probably have to switch positions, presuming he isn’t moved in another deal sometime this winter, as Hechavarria is the better option at shortstop. Escobar has spent nearly his whole career at shortstop but did appear at a few games at both second and third base early on in his career. He hit just .253/.300/.344 in 608 plate appearances this past season. It’s unlikely he’d offer more than Donovan Solano at second, so Escobar may have to fight for playing time at third or in a utility role.

DeSclafani posted a strong showing in his first professional season this year, but is still considered too far off the radar to find himself in any discussions about Toronto’s top pitching prospects. Mathis will likely share duties behind the plate, depending on how quickly Rob Brantly seizes the starting role. Alvarez made 31 starts for the Blue Jays this past season, posting a 9-14 record and 4.85 ERA over 187.1 innings. He’ll surely slide into an opening in Miami’s starting rotation, though it’s unclear where he’d fit in a projected rotation. Some estimates put him second behind only Ricky Nolasco, though again it’s unclear what other moves (i.e. will Nolasco be next to go?) the Marlins intend to make this offseason.

Marisnick and Nicolino are the two clear prizes in the deal, as I discussed earlier today at our minor league/prospect site Seedlings to Stars, pending how Hechavarria develops, but neither prospect is going to be near-MLB ready before the 2014 season at the earliest. Marisnick just reached Double-A this past season but profiles as a solid defensive option who should be able to stick in center field and could develop some power numbers, meaning he should be a nice addition alongside Christian Yelich in the organization’s future outfield. Nicolino is a little futher away but could someday be a #2 or #3 starter for this team behind Jose Fernandez. Marisnick and Nicolino should both find themselves ranked among the organization’s top prospects as rankings are released in the coming weeks.

The 27 year old batted just .163/.200/.267 in 92 plate appearances for the Marlins this past season, appearing in just 53 games (14 starts). Over parts of the past three seasons Cousins has received 188 plate appearances with the Marlins, hitting .183/.231/.291 over that span with a concerning 58 strikeouts (versus just 11 walks). His value has been largely in his defensive versatility as he’s capable of playing all three outfield positions. The former 2006 Draft pick (3rd Round) has hit a collective .279/.341/.451 in 2,161 plate appearances over the past seven seasons in the minor leagues, but was still thought highly enough of that Baseball America ranked him as the Marlins 9th best prospect heading into the 2012 season.

Scott Cousins’ defense was his strength and could land him some playing time in Toronto. (Image Credit: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE)

Cousins is likely best known for a collision at the plate early in the 2011 season which resulted in San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey missing the remainder of the season. Numerous people called Cousins’ contact at the plate a dirty play at the time. While he was a solid defensive replacement, he was never able to work his way into the Marlins’ plans long term given the remaining outfield depth within the organization.

Toronto figures to head into next season with a number of young players competing for time in their outfield – notably Moises Sierra and Anthony Gose – but there could be room off the bench for Cousins if he’s able to compete in Spring Training for a spot on the roster. Of course, that’s also depending largely on what other moves Toronto makes this winter.

June 10, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder

Slips, Slides, and Slumps vs. Regression

OK, I’ll concede that the last few days have been rough.  It was an affront to my sense of order and decency that Dan Uggla drilled my home run sculpture.  He of the seemingly endless parade of errors. Tampa came over for a visit and swatted us like an annoying fly, 13-4.  Out of the last six games, we’ve dropped approximately six (0-and-6 or .000, depending on the brain hemisphere you prefer), and have gone from ½ game to five games out of first, and are knocking once again on the cellar door.

In the last game of the series with Atlanta, both teams logged nine hits. The Braves scored eight runs and the Marlins, two. It got worse.  Here’s a breakdown of the way we capitalized on base hits, as compared to Tampa Bay:

TB:

6/8: 5 runs out of 10 base hits: .500

6/9: 13 runs out of 14 base hits: .929

6/10: 4 runs out of 8 base hits: .500

MIA:

6/8: 1 run out of 7 base hits: .143

6/9: 4 runs out of 8 base hits: .500

6/10: 2 runs out of 7 base hits: .286

Their nadir is our apex, and the standings reflect it.  Our pitchers have given up 11 home runs over the past six games, and we left 47 men on base in the same period.

The strength of our pitching staff kept our heads barely above water in April.  Continued strong pitching combined with good performance by the top of our batting order gave us a record-breaking May.  As we close in on mid-June, our hitters are not figuring out opposing pitchers anywhere near as quickly as our opponents are figuring out ours.

Ozzie Guillen is starting to make some moves, bringing Gaby Sanchez back up and designating Donnie Murphy for assignment. Logan Morrison is back in left field, and time will tell if his stint at first will make him a better fielder than he was before Gaby got sent out for a reboot.

The bottom line remains:  Without improving hitting, especially at the bottom of the order and with runners on base, we are a .500 team with good pitching. Fix that, and we are division contenders. I think our pitching is better than it has been in June, but maybe not as good as it was in May.  Our hitting, with the notable exception of Giancarlo Stanton, has nowhere to go but up.

Looking ahead, we host the Red Sox for three games, and then fly to Tampa with a chance to settle the score with the Rays, and then go to Boston and Toronto before resuming National League play at home against the Cardinals. Boston’s season has been well-documented in the World Where Baseball Exists, so there’s not much point in rehashing ESPN or SI’s analysis of a ball club with locker room problems. Six games with the Red Sox is an excellent opportunity for us to make some headway in the standings.  Facing the Rays in the Trop will be, unfortunately, a rehash of the past weekend unless we add an offensive component to our game. Toronto is about on a par with us, and we’ll be playing under AL rules. Unfortunately, that silences one of our better bats in Carlos Zambrano. Still, they are a beatable team.

Prediction:

Red Sox: We win five of the six.

Rays: We take one of the three.

Blue Jays: Two of three.

My apologies for the recent lack of input from my side of the couch, but I’ve been distracted by a family issue back home and a reluctant lawnmower here.  Output should return to normal as we get deeper into June.