Fish-Cap: Marlins swept by Giants


Last night, the Marlins topped off a disappointing series with a laugher against the San Francisco Giants, losing 6-3. Unlike the previous two games, this one wasn’t even close, as the Fish went down 6-0 early and did not muster their first hit until the sixth inning.

This was the first sweep of the Marlins this season, and while I figured we would struggle against the top half of a dominating rotation, I had thought we would at least be able to take Game 3. Alas, that one ended up being the worst of the three outings.

Series Hero: Dan Uggla (0.640 WPA)
Series Goat: Jorge Cantu (-0.626 WPA)
Impressed By: Not one player
Depressed By: Jorge Cantu (13 PA, 0 H, 1 BB, 5 K)

The Least Clutchy Performance Possible

In the Marlins’ 3-2 loss on Wednesday night, the club had an excellent chance to stage its comeback for the evening. Down 3-1 in the bottom of the eighth inning, the Fish ran off four consecutive singles, orchestrated by Brett Carroll, Brian Barden, Wes Helms, and Gaby Sanchez, with Sanchez driving in a run to make it 3-2. At the start of the inning, the Fish had a 9.8% chance of winning the game. With the bases loaded and no one out after the Sanchez single, the Marlins had a 53.1% chance of winning the game. Factor in the fact that Hanley Ramirez was stepping to the plate and Jorge Cantu was to follow, and you had to figure the Marlins had a good chance of winning.

Here was Hanley’s at-bat, via MLB Gameday.

This strikeout occurred on three whiffs, all on breaking balls to the outer half of the plate. I didn’t get a chance to watch it, but I can’t imagine it was anything but ugly. That strikeout took out 14.2% of our chances of winning that game (-0.142 WPA). Cantu then followed up with this three-pitch masterpiece.

Cantu swung at two pitches that were bad, though one was to protect the plate with two strikes. He took a borderline called strike to start, so that’s not entirely his fault either. But the double play grounder was by far the worst outcome that could have happened in that plate appearance. That took out 30.2% of our chances of winning, completely squandering the opportunity. Look, it happens. This just happened to be a really bad time for it to happen.

Ricky has homeritis

Ricky Nolasco pitched a decent game yesterday but was tagged for three runs and once again gave up a home run. Ricky now has given up seven home runs this season, just one shy of his walk total for the season. According to BIS’ batted ball type classifications, Ricky has allowed 13.2% of his fly balls to leave the yard, leading to his xFIP of 3.90 (compared to his FIP of 4.37). He has looked decent otherwise, but this is his second sub-par outing in a row. This should regress, so I’m not concerned. I’d just like to see the Fish give the starters some more run support as well.