Series Preview: @Chicago White Sox

michaeljong
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It’s interleague play time!

I don’t find it that exciting either, but I will admit that I do not recall the team every playing the Chicago White Sox during interleague play, though I am certain that my brain has just glossed over that detail. Nevertheless, the Marlins will make a visit to U.S. Cellular Field for a three-game set this weekend, with the two weekend games starting at 2:05 pm EST.

Florida Marlins @ Chicago White Sox (16-24), May 21-23, Games 43-45

NL East Standings

TmWLWin%GB
PHI2515.632
FLA2220.5254.0
ATL2120.5004.5
WSN2121.4875.0
NYM2022.4756.0

Stadium: U.S. Cellular Field
Five-year Run PF*: 1.03
Five-year HR PF*: 1.12
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 330 ft.
Left-Center: 375
Center Field: 400
Right-Center: 375
Right Field: 335

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

Projected Pitching Matchups

May 21: Ricky Nolasco vs. Mark Buehrle
May 22: Chris Volstad vs. Gavin Gloyd
May 23: Josh Johnson vs. Freddy Garcia

ZiPS In-Season Projections

FIPWin%MarlinsDateWhite SoxWin%FIP
3.62.561NolascoMay 21Buehrle.4424.68
4.45.466VolstadMay 22Floyd.4544.56
3.00.641JohnsonMay 23Garcia.3975.14

Projected Lineup

LineupPlayerCurrent wOBAProj. wOBA v. RHPProj. wOBA v. LHP
1Chris Coghlan
.266.343.316
2Gaby Sanchez.361.336.366
3Hanley Ramirez.377.400.420
4Jorge Cantu.341.334.352
5Dan Uggla.409.361.370
6Ronny Paulino.334.310.342
7Cody Ross.344.337.371
8Wes Helms
.304.319.294
9Cameron Maybin.292.303.317

Notes

– Marlins fans take note: Mark Buehrle is not as bad as his FIP suggests. For his career, he has a 4.19 FIP and a 3.84 ERA, and that’s in a good ten years worth of work. There is a good shot that he has some control over an aspect of pitching that FIP does not cover (BABIP, pitching with runners on) that has helped him to his mark, in addition to his supposedly good pitcher defense. That matchup is not as lopsided as it looks.

– Fans watching tonight’s game should be able to get to bed early. Buehrle is a notoriously fast worker. Case in point: he was able to finish his perfect game last season against the Tampa Bay Rays in a shade over two hours (two hours and three minutes, to be exact).

– The Marlins will employ Cantu at DH, as they have for seasons past. This at least signals that they know he is the team’s worst defender. Helms, a decent third base glove, and Sanchez, who has apparently not done well according to the defense metrics so far this year, will man the corners.

Bold Prediction: Marlins win two of three games.

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