Fish-Cap: Marlins take three of four from Brewers
By Michael Jong
The Marlins finished off the home stand by taking three of four from the Milwaukee Brewers, finishing at 5-5 for the stand. After disappointing series versus the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies, it was good to see the Marlins bounce back in a big way, especially offensively.
Series Hero: Chris Coghlan (0.540 WPA)
Series Goat: Jorge Sosa (-0.323 WPA)
Impressed By: Coghlan (19 PA, 10 H, 3 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 SB)
Depressed By: Nate Robertson (5 1/3 IP, 4 R, 3 K, 3 BB, 1 HR)
The Offensive Outburst
Two nights prior to the series opener, the Marlins had suffered a perfect game at the hands of the Phillies’ Roy Halladay. The team had followed with a win, but scored only one run in that game. The team had scored just 15 runs in the first six games of the home stand, batting .214/.274/.281 in that span.
And then this happened.
The sixth inning for the Marlins was a firestorm of hits. The Marlins started the inning down 4-0 to the Brewers and, after scoring the first run of the game on a Jorge Cantu groundout, faced a two-out situation with a runner on second. Dan Uggla walked and was promptly followed by this Cody Ross delivery. Oddly enough, Brewers manager Ken Macha had come out to the mound just before the PA to talk to lefty starter Chris Narveson. Macha decided to stick with the lefty despite having a righty ready in the pen, and that was a mistake versus the lefty mashing Ross.
The Marlins followed that up with (in order): a double, walk, single (PH for Mike Lamb), and a triple. These plated three more runs and gave the Marlins a 7-4 lead. Gaby Sanchez ended the inning with a strikeout, recording two of the team’s three outs in the inning. The Fish started the inning with an 11.0% chance of winning and finished with an 88.4% chance, totaling 0.774 WPA. The team then scored another six runs in the game for good measure, finishing two runs shy of their previous six-game total.
The video speaks for itself. Maybin has some flaws in his game, but he is fast.
Coghlan on the mend
During the ten-game home stand, Coghlan hit an impressive .400/.455/.625, showing that regression can occasionally work quickly the other way as well. Coghlan has caught fire, and it was evident in the Brewers series. CC hit .588/.632/1.059 (!) in 19 PA against the Brewers and their awful pitching staff. Still, this has only brought his season line up to .249/.300/.340, a paltry .294 wOBA. Still, he was able to climb himself out of below replacement level, so there’s that! We’ll wait to see, but this is encouraging regression for Coghlan.
Once again, Josh Johnson proves that he is the ace of the staff and one of the best young pitchers in baseball. JJ dominated the Brewers last night, going seven innings and allowing just one run on seven hits, striking out eight and walking three. It was not the most amazing of performances, but Johnson once again limited home runs and kept guys swinging and missing. He induced 12 swings and misses, eight grounders out of 18 balls in play, and was in the zone 61% of the time. It’s tough to beat Johnson when he is around the zone and getting guys to whiff and ground out.
Right now, JJ ranks fourth in the majors in FIP, fourth in ERA, tied for third in FanGraphs WAR (fWAR) and Rally WAR (rWAR, according to Baseball-Reference). In other words, he’s having a damn good season as well, which has mostly been overshadowed by the excellent seasons of Ubaldo Jimenez (2nd fWAR, 1st rWAR) and Roy Halladay (1st fWAR, T-3rd rWAR). He’s undoubtedly going to make the All-Star team, but it’s something of a shame that his year is being dwarfed by two equally monstrous campaigns.