Series Preview: @Arizona Diamondbacks

michaeljong
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After successfully taking two out of three from the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Marlins finish off the “first half” of the year with four games against the Arizona Diamondbacks, owners of the second worst record in the National League. Let’s see how the matchups lie.

Florida Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers (32-53), July 8-11, Games 85-88

NL East Standings

TmWLWin%GB
ATL5035.588
NYM4738.5533.0
PHI4340.5186.0
FLA4044.4769.5
WSN3847.44712.0

Stadium: Chase Field
Five-year Run PF*: 1.06
Five-year HR PF*: 1.05
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 330 ft.
Left-Center: 374
Center Field: 407
Right-Center: 374
Right Field: 334

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

Projected Pitching Matchups

July 8: Anibal Sanchez vs. Rodrigo Lopez
July 9: Ricky Nolasco vs. Dan Haren
July 10: Nate Robertson vs. Ian Kennedy
July 11: Alejandro Sanabia vs. Barry Enright

ZiPS In-Season Projections

FIPProj. FIPWin%MarlinsDateDodgersWin%Proj. FIPFIP
3.473.92.525SanchezJuly 8Lopez.4454.655.06
4,523.81.538NolascoJuly 9Haren.5953.353.84
4.434.43.468RobertsonJuly 10Kennedy.4704.414.85
SanabiaJuly 11Enright.4045.065.10

Projected Lineup

LineupPlayerCurrent wOBAProj. wOBA v. RHPProj. wOBA v. LHP
1Chris Coghlan.332.346.319
2Gaby Sanchez.369.342.365
3Hanley Ramirez.377.399.415
4Jorge Cantu.321.325.343
5Dan Uggla.379.362.375
6Cody Ross.345.336.370
7Ronny Paulino.320.307.341
8Mike Stanton.296

Notes

– The matchup of this series is most certainly Game 2, where two of the best pitchers at avoiding walks go toe-to-toe. If K/BB is your thing, the Dan Haren – Ricky Nolasco matchup will feature the third-best (4.96) and sixth-best (4.63) K/BB ratios among starters this year. Ironically, both pitchers are underperforming because of the same reason: home runs are killing them. Haren has allowed 1.39 HR/9 IP, while Nolasco has given up 1.74.

– I was unable to find any projections for Alejandro Sanabia, who will start in place of Chris Volstad this week.

– The Diamondbacks are one of the few teams in the league that can sport a bullpen as bad or worse than ours. The D’backs lead all of baseball in FanGraphs’/Tango’s Meltdowns stat (measures an amount of bullpen appearances with -0.06 or more WPA) with 51. The Marlins are unsurprisingly second in that department with 46. However, the D’backs are also the only team in baseball right now with more Meltdowns than Shutdowns (the equivalent WPA, but on the positive side).

Bold Prediction: Marlins take three of four games.

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