Series Preview: @Seattle Mariners

michaeljong
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The Marlins are supposed to be continuing their “home stand” tonight with a three-game set against the Seattle Mariners. Unfortunately, the band U2 got in the way and kicked the Marlins out of town, which just goes to show you where the priorities of Sun Life Stadium lie. Nevertheless, the Fish will still have a three-game set against the Mariners, but it will be a “home game” away from home and at Safeco Field. Oh, and we’re still losing plenty right now.

By the way, no live chat tonight! I don’t do them on the West Coast trips on account of it being way too late to be discussing disappointing Marlins baseball. Look out for one next week.

Florida Marlins @ Seattle Mariners (37-38), June 24-26, Games 76-78

NL East Standings

TmWLWin%GB
PHI4729.618
ATL4333.5664.0
WSN3837.5078.5
NYM3738.4959.5
FLA3342.44013.5

Stadium: Safeco Field
Five-year Run PF*: 0.97
Five-year HR PF*: 0.95
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 331 ft.
Left-Center: 390
Center Field: 405
Right-Center: 385
Right Field: 326

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

Projected Pitching Matchups

June 24: Ricky Nolasco vs. Felix Hernandez
June 25: Chris Volstad vs. Jason Vargas
June 26: Anibal Sanchez vs. Doug Fister

ZiPS In-Season Projections

ERAProj. FIPWin%MarlinsDateMarinersWin%Proj. FIPERA
4.483.38.591NolascoJune 17Hernandez.6602.853.34
5.654.45.465VolstadJune 18Vargas.5114.043.86
2.903.35.595SanchezJune 19Fister.5483.733.34

Projected Lineup

LineupPlayerCurrent wOBAProj. wOBA v. RHPProj. wOBA v. LHP
1Dewayne Wise / Emilio Bonifacio.301 / .318.305
2Logan Morrison.359.368.343
3Gaby Sanchez.380.350.375
4Hanley Ramirez.280.367.387
5Mike Stanton.382.357.374
6Greg Dobbs / Jose Lopez.340 / .226.319
7John Buck.291.309.335
8Omar Infante.274.304.314

Notes

– Here’s your pitching matchup of the series:

PlayerIPK%BB%GB%ERAFIP
Nolasco94 1/317.85.439.94.483.55
Hernandez113 1/323.17.948.13.342.89

Part of the allure of this matchup is watching King Felix pitch; simply put, he is one of the most amazing pitchers in the league right now. Part of it is also the fact that the ever-puzzling Ricky Nolasco will be on the mound. His last five starts have him at an 8.20 ERA (4.11 FIP). Nolasco recently issued an uncharacteristically large number of walks, but outside of that seemed like a semblance of his normal self. Of course, a .417 BABIP does not help either. Hopefully he can turn things around, because Felix Hernandez will definitely do a good job against the current Marlins hapless offense.

– I like the idea Jack McKeon has in putting Hanley Ramirez at the cleanup spot. If you thought that Ramirez was what his current stats say he is, then clearly it isn’t a smart move. But obviously Ramirez simply is not this bad, and putting him in the cleanup spot shows that McKeon and the coaches have confidence in Ramirez’s ability to bounce back. In the last two games, he delivered two base hits in each game and brought home a couple runners along the way, so hopefully those are signs of a recovery. I personally will not feel great about his condition until I see some homers leave the park, however.

– Ramirez isn’t the only one struggling. Quietly, Omar Infante has improved, but there is only so much you can do to go down until you are forced to improve or be booted from a starting spot, and Infante was almost at the bottom of the barrel. John Buck is similarly struggling and making all the pundits who thought the offseason signing was a bad idea look very smart. The Fish do not currently have enough weapons to contend with players like Buck and Infante playing well below their expectations.

– As much as I like McKeon’s move to bat Ramirez cleanup, I cannot support the continual mess that is running DeWayne Wise and Emilio Bonifacio at leadoff. Speed does not necessarily correlate with good leadoff results, and managers should know that by now.

Bold Prediction: Marlins win one of three games.

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