Happy Memorial Day: Washington Nationals (29-18) @ Miami Marlins (26-22) May 28th (Game 49)


The Miami Marlins are 4-3 so far on their home stand and will have a chance to build on that against their division foe, the Washington Nationals. The Marlins are coming fresh off of a series split against the San Francisco Giants. The Marlins currently trail the Nationals in the division by three and a half games. This series will mark a great chance to cut into that deficit.

The Marlins will also be looking to break their single month win record, they are currently sitting at 18 and are two shy of the team record. The Nationals, like the Marlins last opponent, have struggled to score runs, but with the recent call up of Bryce Harper and the return to form of Ryan Zimmerman, it will not be long before this offense breaks out. The Nationals have had one of the best starting staffs in baseball in 2012.

Stadium: Marlins Park

Five-year Run PF*: N/A
Five-year HR PF*: N/A
Stadium Dimensions:
Left field line—340 ft.
Left-center field—384 ft.
Center field—416 ft.
Right-center field—392 ft.
Right field line—335 ft.

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

Washington2918.6176-4W315-814-105/27 @ ATL, W 7-25/28 @ MIA, 1:10 PM
NY Mets2721.5632.56-4W315-912-125/27 vs SD, W 2-05/28 vs PHI, 1:10 PM
Miami2622.5423.56-4L113-1013-125/27 vs SF, L 2-35/28 vs WSH, 1:10 PM
Atlanta2623.5314.02-8L710-1016-135/27 vs WSH, L 2-75/28 vs STL, 1:10 PM
Philadelphia2524.5105.05-5L111-1314-115/27 @ STL, L 3-85/28 @ NYM, 1:10 PM

Head to Head

Washington Nationals

Miami Marlins
Batting Average.246.243
Earned Run Average2.933.70
Hits Allowed342411
Opponent Batting Average.218.253

Probable Starters

Jordan Zimmermann, RHP
2012 stats
58.1Innings Pitched60.0
2.47Earned Run Average2.85
95Pitches Per Start100
Career vs. opponent
27.2Innings Pitched85.0
4.55Earned Run Average3.18

Carlos Zambrano, RHP

Last time out for Carlos Zambrano, the results were not too pretty, the Marlins are hoping for better results today, as Zambrano will be featured in the second double Z pitching match-up of the season. Zambrano allowed a three run home run to Troy Tulowitzski, which made his night as bad as it was. In his previous outing before that, Zambrano somehow managed to get a win, even though he walked five and struck out just two. Zambrano was fortunate that game that the ball did not find any holes in the Marlins defense. The Marlins will need a better effort out of Zambrano today.

Jordan Zimmerman on the other hand has been successful in his 2012 campaign as well. Zimmerman has used Ricky Nolasco‘s path, with a low-strikeout and walk rate, to have his success in 2012. Zimmerman has a 3.61 ERA and 3.56 FIP for his career. Zimmerman is coming off of a successful start against the Philadelphia Phillies. Zimmerman fired 6 innings against the Phillies, allowing only one run, and drove in a run as well.

Marlins Lineup

LineupPlayerCurrent wOBAProj. wOBA v. RHPCareer vs Zimmerman
1Jose Reyes.308.350.362
2Omar Infante.396.321.305
3Hanley Ramirez.333.351.375
4Giancarlo Stanton.393.373.401
5Logan Morrison.293.364.337
6Bryan Petersen.223.315.366
7John Buck.274.300.317
8Chris Coghlan.159.320.321

Ozzie Guillen is running out the Marlins best lineup against a right handed pitcher. Petersen and Coghlan are both lefties and provide better match-ups against right handed hitters. The rest of the lineup looks fine, especially with Giancarlo Stanton back in the four spot. My only gripe maybe that Logan Morrison deserves to be in the two-spot, instead of Omar Infante, but at this point, that would provide Stanton with no protection.

Bold Prediction:

The Miami Marlins put some first inning runs on the board against Zimmerman, via a Giancarlo Stanton three-run shot. The Nationals tie the ball game up in the fifth inning, before Logan Morrison puts the Marlins in the lead for good in the seventh inning, with a two-run home run. The Marlins win the ball game, 5-4, but not before some more struggles from closer, Heath Bell.