Miami Marlins (33-33) @ Boston Red Sox (33-33) June 19th, 7 PM EST (Game 67)

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This June has gotten to a point that it has been very frustrating to watch baseball. Honestly, if the Miami Heat were not leading in the Finals 2 to 1 right now, I would have a very tough time turning on any sports channel or reading anything sports related.

The Marlins have lost 11 of their 15 games that they have played this month. The team is currently sitting at the .500 mark at 33 and 33. Fortunately, the Marlins still only trail the division leading Washington Nationals by 6 games. I know, with the Marlins have played as of late, that six game deficit looks bigger then it should.

Tonight, the Marlins will be in Boston to take on the Red Sox, for the second time this season. The Red Sox won two out of the three games in Miami. It’s been a struggle, but if you are looking for a sliver lining, the Marlins, during their slump, played their best baseball against the Boston Red Sox. Yes, they were outscored 13-7 in that series, but they were in the final two games, but the last one got away in the eight inning.

The Marlins are only a hot week or two from jumping right back into the thick of the National East race. They can start by winning this series and returning home to start a winning streak.

EastWLPCTGBL10STRKHOMEROADLAST GAMENEXT GAME
Washington3826.5946-4L318-1320-136/17 vs NYY, L 1-46/19 vs TB, 7:05 PM
NY Mets3632.5294.04-6W120-1516-176/18 vs BAL, W 5-06/19 vs BAL, 7:10 PM
Atlanta3532.5224.53-7L315-1720-156/18 @ NYY, L 2-66/19 @ NYY, 7:05 PM
Miami3333.5006.02-8L117-1816-156/17 @ TB, L 0-36/19 @ BOS, 7:10 PM
Philadelphia3137.4569.03-7L312-1919-186/17 @ TOR, L 2-66/19 vs COL, 7:05 PM

Stadium: Fenway Park

Five-year Run PF*: N/A
Five-year HR PF*: N/A
Stadium Dimensions:
Left field line—315 ft.
Left-center field—379 ft.
Center field—420 ft.
Right-center field—380 ft.
Right field line—302 ft.

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

Head to Head


Miami Marlins
33-33

Boston Red Sox
33-33
BATTINGMarlinsRed Sox
Batting Average.237.267
Runs239330
Hits527617
PITCHINGMarlinsRed Sox
Earned Run Average4.004.30
Hits Allowed576578
Opponent Batting Average.255.256

The numbers do no look pretty for the Marlins right now. The team has a low batting average, a low number of runs scored, compounded with a high ERA and a ton of runs allowed. It is not out of line to say right now, that the Marlins are very fortunate to be a .500 team. It could be a whole lot worse.

Probable Starters


Mark Buehrle, LHP
2012 stats
87.0Innings Pitched80.1
5-7Wins-Losses7-2
3.41Earned Run Average5.38
13Walks33
43Strikeouts55
99Pitches Per Start101
Career vs. opponent
113.1Innings Pitched7.0
6-7Wins-Losses1-0
4.37Earned Run Average1.29

Clay Buchholz, RHP

Buchholz is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his three starts this month, including a 2-1 victory over the Miami Marlins just last week. Buchholz only mistake in that game was a Logan Morrison solo home run. He out-dueled Mark Buehrle, only allowing five hits over seven strong innings, striking out a season high of 9 Marlins hitters. After a slow start to the 2012 season, Buchholz seems to be figuring things out and with the Marlins bats struggling, he could be looking at another huge start.

Last time out for Buehrle, he had a strong start for the Marlins. Buehrle has allowed two runs in each of his last two outings along with a total of eight hits and two walks. His last time out against Boston, Buehrle surrendered just two runs and five hits over seven innings. But unfortunately, he did no receive any run support in another Marlins June loss.  Buehrle has lost three straight decisions, but it has not been his fault, as the lefty has gotten just four runs of support across those three starts. David Ortiz is batting .345 (20 for 58) with eight doubles and two homers against Buehrle, who is 0-2 with an 8.20 ERA over his last three visits to Fenway after going 3-0 with a 2.11 ERA in his first three starts there.

Marlins Projected Lineup

LineupPlayerCurrent wOBAProj. wOBA (Rest of Season)Career BA vs Shields
1Jose Reyes
.333.350.667
2Hanley Ramirez
.347.354.333
3Giancarlo Stanton
.389.383.000
4Logan Morrison
.301.383.333
5Omar Infante.345.317.500
6Greg Dobbs
.444.307
7Scott Cousins.416.293.200
8Gaby Sanchez
.227.326.000
9John Buck
.265.298.000

The Marlins will likely deploy Greg Dobbs and Scott Cousins, both lefties, against the right handed starter Buchholz. The Marlins need their offense to get going in the worst way. The team has struggled to put any runs on the board as of late. The Marlins offense has been woeful at the plate lately, batting .179 and producing 21 runs while losing 10 of 12. The Marlins were held to just three hits and shutout in each of their two losses to the Rays in their previous series.

Ozzie Guillen has not gotten much production since he switched the lineup to this order, so do not discount the possibility of another lineup switch, even though that is unlikely to bring about any improvement from anyone.

Prediction:

I am trying to be as optimistic as possible today, so I will say that the Marlins come out on top in this game. Giancarlo Stanton will hit his first home run, in what feels like ages, and he will carry the Marlins to a 5-2 win. Mark Buehrle will deliver another strong start for the Marlins, as the team will try to start a long winning streak to end the month.

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