Miami Marlins Season Review: Preseason Bold Predictions Gone Wrong


Sep 29, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins pitchers Tom Koehler (left) and Jose Fernandez (right) dump gatorade on starting pitcher Henderson Alvarez after Alvarez threw a no hitter against the Detroit Tigers at Marlins Ballpark. The Marlins won 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Making bold predictions prior to the beginning of the Major League Baseball series has always been something I enjoyed. I am hardly right when it comes to these predictions, but they are fun to make either way.

Time to see how well poorly I did. I do want to hold myself accountable for the one’s that I got wrong, so I can take full credit for the lone prediction I did get right.  As a refresher, here are my Bold Predictions from the preseason.

1. The Miami Marlins will not finish last in the NL East:

I predicted before the season that the Marlins would win 73 games in 2013, 4 more than they did in 2012 and thus avoid the 100-loss mark. The team ended up going 62-100, which was last place in the NL East. Not only did the Marlins finish 9 games behind the fourth place Philadelphia Phillies, they finished 4 games ahead of the Chicago Cubs to hold the honor of the worst team in the National League.

I predicted the Marlins would finish two games ahead of the New York Mets, that prediction was only off by 14 games. I was clearly way off here, but at least I didn’t say something like the Marlins would be a playoff team.

Wrong (0/1)

2. Logan Morrison has a bounce-back season:

Unlike most Marlins fans, I had high hopes for a strong comeback season for Logan Morrison. I predicted  Morrison would post a .270/.345/.445 slash line, with 15 home runs. LoMo, who made his season debut in June, posted a disappointing .242/.333/.375 slash line with just six home runs in 333 plate appearances.

While Morrison’s 2013 was a major disappointment, one of the highlights of my season was my opportunity to interview him, while he was rehabbing with the Jacksonville Suns. LoMo is a decent guy and does a lot to help the community, as our very own Laura Georgia covered.

With the Marlins interested in Jose Abreu, the chances of LoMo returning to the team in 2014 look bleak right now.

Wrong (0/2)

3. Giancarlo Stanton will hit 45 home runs

Out of all my predictions, I thought this one was going to be the biggest slamdunk. In 2012, Stanton posted a triple slash line of .290/.361/.608 with those 34 home runs last season, in just 501 plate appearances. My thinking was Stanton would stay healthy and be able to mash 45 home runs, along with posting an impressive .280/.365/.605 slash line.

Stanton did not quite live up to the billing and earned a low grade from Chris Logel in his season review of right field. Stanton posted a .249/.365/.480 slash line in 504 plate appearances. If we saw this kind of line from another Marlin in 2013, we would have been thrilled, but for Stanton, that is a disappointing season.

I did guess Stanton’s on base percentage on the dot, do I get a portion of a point for that? Yes?

Wrong (0/3)

4. The Marlins will reach a contract extension with Stanton

Nope. This did not happen and the chances of the two sides agreeing to an extension this off-season does not look too good. Stanton does not want to commit to a franchise that does not trust and the Marlins will be hesitant to sign someone who misses as many games as Stanton does a season.

While I see it as a longshot that Stanton re-ups, I still hold some hope that something will be resolved. For that reason, I am going to grade this prediction as incomplete.

Incomplete (0/3)

Sep 24, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (16) prior to a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

5. Jose Fernandez will win Rookie of the Year

Full disclosure: My original pick to win this was St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Shelby Miller, but when the news broke that Fernandez would be on the Marlins opening day roster, I amended my pick. And boy do I look like a genius today for changing my pick last minute.

Even though I picked Fernandez to win ROY, I still vastly underrated what he would do. I predicted he would throw 138 IP, post a 3.75 ERA and post a 3.17 K/BB ratio. I was close on the K/BB ratio, as he came in at 3.22 for the year. I was however way off on the ERA (2.19) and the innings pitched (172.2).

Fernandez has not won the award yet, but even despite the season Yasiel Puig had, I don’t see the voters picking him over Fernandez for the award. I will give myself the point for now and change it if he does not end up winning it.

Correct (1/4)

I got one out of four right, which means if I were a hitter, I’d be hitting .250 for the season. Pretty sure that would be among the best averages on the team. Maybe Loria needs to give me a call and get me a tryout at third base? I cannot be any worse than Greg Dobbs, can I? (More than likely, yes.)