Ehsan Kassim’s Bold Predictions for Miami Marlins 2014 Season

Mar 29, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (16) throws before a scheduled spring training exhibition game against the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: David Manning-USA TODAY Sports

For the past two seasons, I have attempted to make bold predictions for the forthcoming season. Both of those years, what I have predicted have been close to 100% wrong. In fact, reviewing the two years, I have only gotten 2.5 out of the 9 bold predictions I have made correct.

Despite my Jeff Mathis-like batting average in the prediction game, I did make a bold prediction that turned out to be on the money last season, going with a last second gut call:

5. Jose Fernandez will win Rookie of the Year Full disclosure: My original pick to win this was St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Shelby Miller, but when the news broke that Fernandez would be on the Marlins opening day roster, I amended my pick. And boy do I look like a genius today for changing my pick last minute. Even though I picked Fernandez to win ROY, I still vastly underrated what he would do. I predicted he would throw 138 IP, post a 3.75 ERA and post a 3.17 K/BB ratio. I was close on the K/BB ratio, as he came in at 3.22 for the year. I was however way off on the ERA (2.19) and the innings pitched (172.2). Fernandez has not won the award yet, but even despite the season Yasiel Puig had, I don’t see the voters picking him over Fernandez for the award. I will give myself the point for now and change it if he does not end up winning it. Correct (1/4)

That turned out to be the only prediction I got right last year, making me think that I could right the ship this season with some more bold predictions.

Here are my 5 bold predictions for the upcoming 2014 season for the Miami Marlins:

Mar 24, 2014; Jupiter, FL, USA; Miami Marlins left fielder Jake Marisnick (23) connects for a double during a game against the Washington Nationals at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

1. Jake Marisnick Wins Rookie of the Year

Marisnick turned in a strong season in Double-A for the Jacksonville Suns, before being promoted to the big leagues. He posted a .294/.358/.502 slash line with a .391 wOBA. Marisnick hit 12 home runs and stole 11 bases for the Suns, proving why he was such a high touted prospect before heading to the Marlins in their blockbuster deal.

However, a rough patch in just over a month in the majors brought in a lot of detractors that he’d never be able to do well in the majors, due to how long his swing was. That’s why despite a strong spring, the Marlins made the tough decision to demote Marisnick to Triple-A to begin the season.

I don’t believe Marcell Ozuna is ready for the majors and that will be proven over the first month of the season. While Ozuna struggles, Marisnick will get off to a hot start in New Orleans and force the Marlins hand. Once he gets up to the majors, he’ll stick around post a 20/20 season in the big leagues, winning Rookie of the Year honors.

Mar 4, 2014; Jupiter, FL, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (27) at bat against the Minnesota Twins at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

2. Giancarlo Stanton will hit 47 home runs

Last season I predicted that Stanton would hit 45 home runs, but due to health issues and a lack of pitches to hit, Stanton only hit 24 home runs in 504 plate appearances.

This season, I expect Stanton to be able to find a way to stay on the field and find the stands at a better pace. No longer will Stanton have to worry about Placido Polanco hitting behind him, but rather he’ll have a platoon of two strong hitters against opposite hand pitchers.

For his career, Jeff Baker has a .375 wOBA against lefties and Garrett Jones owns a career .355 wOBA against right handers. This duo hitting behind Stanton will give pitchers a pause before they think about deciding to pitch around Stanton, likely giving him a few more pitches in the zone to hit. Also, with Christian Yelich hitting in front of him, Stanton could come to the plate with a runner on for him a good number of times.

While I believe lineup protection to be a myth, I do believe it does have some effect on a player’s numbers. The better lineup around Stanton will allow him to break Gary Sheffield‘s single franchise mark of 42 home runs.

Mar 25, 2014; Jupiter, FL, USA; Miami Marlins second baseman Derek Dietrich (32) wears a protective mask during a game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

3. Rafael Furcal spends majority of season on DL; Derek Dietrich thrives

In Rafael Furcal, the Marlins added a solid player. He is a slick fielding short stop and has an above average bat. That is true of the Furcal that played for the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers until the 2010 season.

The Marlins instead signed the 2014 version of last season’s Placido Polanco. Furcal will spend a majority of the season dealing with what most 36-year old baseball players deal with, father time catching up to them. Furcal will spend more time on the Marlins disabled list than on the field.

These injuries are not for naught for the Marlins, as Derek Dietrich will emerge as a legitimate second base option for the Marlins going forward. Dietrich will provide pop to the bottom of the Marlins lineup and give the Marlins average defense at second base. Dietrich will exceed 20 home runs for the 2014 season, if he is given the proper amount of at bats.

Jul 13, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins third baseman Ed Lucas (center) is congratulated by teammates Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (27) and second baseman Donovan Solano after his game winning hit against the Washington Nationals in the tenth inning at Marlins Park. The Marlins won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

5. The Marlins will lead the NL East as late as early June

This has to be my boldest prediction yet. I am calling for a fast start to the 2014 Miami Marlins season, where they jump out to an early division lead, only to see the Washington Nationals take back over by the beginning of June and never look back.

The first two months of the season will see the Marlins riding high behind their strong starting pitching, before injuries and ineffectiveness knock a starter or two out of the rotation, leading to a long, losing June. June historically has been a deadly month for the Marlins, and it will be no different in 2014.

Due to their latest June swoon, the Marlins will slip below .500 and into the basement of the NL East for a short time, before reemerging into third place, where they will finish the season.

Yes, I am predicting a crazy roller coaster ride for the 2014 Marlins season. Have your seat belts on and be ready. If you’re pregnant and can be easily made nauseous, I suggest rooting for the Tampa Bay Rays.