Marlin Maniac Season Preview Round Table

Apr 8, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; a detail shot of third base during opening night of a game between the Atlanta Braves and the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The day has finally arrived. Opening Day 2014 is finally here for the Miami Marlins and we at Marlin Maniac could not be more excited. A new season breeds new hope for the Marlins in the upcoming season, as some see the Marlins as the darkhorse team to make some noise:

Let’s hope one of baseball’s finest young journalists is onto something. On Marlin Maniac, we had a roundtable discussion to help predict what we can expect during the 2014 season.

Mar 29, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (16) signs autographs before a scheduled spring training exhibition game against the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: David Manning-USA TODAY Sports

1. Will Jose Fernandez face regression or will he continue to be one of the game’s elite pitchers in his sophomore season?

Ehsan Kassim: He’s not going to be post an ERA in the low 2’s again in 2014, but will still be a dominant ace. Another top 3 finish in the NL CY Young race is not out of question, but it may take him a season or two to finally catch Clayton Kershaw.

Chris Logel: I think I will have to answer this question with both. It is not likely that Jose will post an ERA better than his 2.19 last year, but even if he is around 2.50, which is where I think he will be, I think he contends for the N.L. Cy Young again. His stuff is nasty and I really believe that we are in for a treat in his second season.

Geoff Parkins: I expect early command issues and a season that starts with a lower K/BB than he posted last year.  I think he’s been busier being Jose Fernendez, Inc. than he’s admitting to himself, and it will bite him in the ass until he has a really bad outing or two.  Then, he’ll have an “oh, shit” moment and tighten up.  From mid-May on. he’ll be a machine.

David Polakoff: Both. It’s almost impossible for him to have a season as good as he did last year, but even with a little regression he’ll be among the game’s top pitchers.

Andy Salgado: Last season I said Jose needed one more year in the minors and maybe called up late in the season. Boy did he prove me wrong. So let me keep the trend. I think this year Jose will drop off from last years amazing performance *wink* *wink*.

Placido Estevez: Both even with some regression Fernandez will continue to be an élite pitcher and place in the top 5 for the Cy Young Award.

Esteban Bailey: Of course Jose Fernandez will continue to be one of the game’s élite pitchers. Fernandez’s work ethic and competitive nature will not allow for a prolonged slump this year. He may have some high’s and low’s and may have to face more adversity than last year, but I just cannot see Fernandez losing the confidence and energy needed to be a star.

Daniel Zylberkan: After the kind of numbers that Jose posted up his rookie year: 2.19 ERA, a K/9 near 10, a WHIP under 1 and HR/9 of 0.5, it is hard to believe that he will not regress some. It its entirely possible that he could improve but the much more likely outcome is that his peripheral stats could move in such a direction to negatively affect his run prevention.

Mar 9, 2014; Jupiter, FL, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (27) puts the ball in play against the Detroit Tigers at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

2. How many home runs will Giancarlo Stanton hit in 2014? Will the lineup behind him force pitchers to give him an adequate amount of pitches to cause his damage?

Ehsan Kassim: I am going with 47. It’s going to be difficult to see him hitting 50 this season in Marlins Park, but I really want to see him shatter Gary Sheffield‘s franchise mark of 42.

Chris Logel: The age old Stanton home run question. I think he will flirt with 40 home runs this year, but an untimely injury will likely keep him away as in seasons past. I think he is capable of hitting 50 but I see him at 38 for the season. The lineup will help some, but Stanton still needs to work on his plate discipline for it to be a bigger factor.

Geoff Parkins: 40+, and maybe closer to 55+. The left-handed power behind him will take away the option of pitching around him. Saltalamacchia and Jones have demonstrated good power this spring, beyond what’s expected of hitters in the spring.

David Polakoff: He’ll hit 32 home runs. I don’t think it matters about the lineup around him – he’ll hit them regardless.

Andy Salgado: Every time I give a number for how many home runs Stanton hits he hit 10 to 15 less so he’s going to hit 55 home runs this year. If Stanton hits like everyone thinks he is going to hit no matter who is behind him pitchers are still going to give him really nothing to hit and hope that it won’t hurt them, but I think the new players and the returnees with experience under there belt will make them pay.

Placido Estevez: Stanton finally seems healthy and will hit 40 home runs.  The improved power in the lineup will definitely convince pitchers that they need to give Stanton more pitches to hit.

Esteban Bailey: Giancarlo Stanton will hit 34 home runs this year as long as he stays healthy. If the lineup gives some protection to Stanton, then the home run total will increase by a lot. His pure power will allow him to get to 30 plus home runs and I fully expect him to grow into a much more polished hitter this season.

Daniel Zylberkan: If Giancarlo is able to play 150 games and get close to 600 PA a 40 home run season is entirely within reach but I would think he gets closer to 35 than 40 HR.  Compared to 2013 the Marlins lineup looks much more legitimate and will produce at least enough offense to keep pitchers honest. Garrett Jones, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Casey McGehee will be able contribute enough offense so at least Giancarlo will get some pitches to hit.

Sep 3, 2013; Chicago, IL, USA; Miami Marlins left fielder Christian Yelich (21) hits an RBI double against the Chicago Cubs during the fifth inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

3. What kind of season is in store for Christian Yelich? Which one of the two of Jake Marisnick and Marcell Ozuna will have a break out season?

Ehsan Kassim: I am a huge Yelich fan and could see him turning into the Marlins next star. I also am cautious with him, as I could see him as the next Jeremy Hermida, because of his strikeout rates, struggles against lefties, and past injury history. I think he posts .262/.350/.420 slash line. More than I like Yelich, I love Marisnick’s potential. I think his ceiling is higher than even Yelich’s. I think we see glimpses of that, once he’s called up in May.

Chris Logel: I believe Yelich will turn in a solid season in year two. I think he will post a batting average around .295 and an obp around .355. Throw in double digit home runs and 25 steals and he is well on his way to a solid 2014 campaign. As far as center field goes, I think this is the year that Jake Marisnick really takes off. He has played excellent all spring, and even though he may not begin the season as the starter in center field, he will end up there by mid-season and by the end of 2014 he will be the everyday center fielder for the future.

Geoff Parkins: I’m looking to Yelich to supply the extra base hits that Marlins Park supports so well. I see plenty of doubles from his bat.  Defensively, his routes will improve.  I don’t see Marisnick really breaking out this year, unless he starts seeing pitches better, and improves his plate discipline. Ozuna’s AAA stint from last year gives him a slight edge over Marisnick, but he has the same plate discipline issues.

David Polakoff: Yelich will have a solid season with a .280 batting average and .370 OBP, but the power won’t be there. Neither Marisnick nor Ozuna will have a breakout season, with the team playing the hot hand between the two of them.

Andy Salgado: I think Yelich will have a .300 AVG. 20 HR, 80 RBI, 30 SB season. I want to believe that both players will have a break out season, but of the 2 I think Jake might have a little more to prove being how his season went last year and coming up with Yelich and the season he had. Jake will breakout. Not saying that Marcell will have abad season. I think he’ll start hot but then even out to an average player.

Placido Estevez: Yelich will have a solid, but unspectacular season.  His value will be as the team’s leadoff hitter with a solid on base percentage.  Neither Osuna nor Marisnick will have a break out season, but Ozuna will do enough to keep the CF job with the major league club all season.

Esteban Bailey: I firmly believe that Christian Yelich will have a very strong season where he exhibits a lot of potential that we have seen in him since he was drafted. I’d like to think that he could probably hit above .300 and maybe have 15 home runs in his first full big league season. Now between Marisnick and Ozuna, I think the added minor league seasoning will help Marisnick develop into a superior player to Ozuna, but Ozuna will have a more productive season up in the Majors. Hopefully, the power that Ozuna exhibited in the minors will finally arrive to the majors.

Daniel Zylberkan: Christian Yelich seems to be ready to be the Marlins everyday left fielder in his time in the minors and last year in the Majors he has shown he can hit and more importantly get on base. Yelich will start the season as the Marlins leadoff hitter and I have no question he could stay there all season and be a key to the Marlins offense all year. If Yelich hit 15 HR, stole 20+ plus bases, got on base at around a .330 clip and played good defense i would not be surprised. Ozuna will be the Opening Day center fielder for the Marlins so far in his time as a member of the Marlins he has been very streaky hitter, last season then in Dominican Winter Ball and in spring training. If he lives up to expectations his power bat will start to show against big league pitching and he will improve his pitch recognition and plate discipline skills. As long as he doesn’t struggle mightily to the point he seems to be flailing Ozuna will man center field for the Marlins. A breakout season for Ozuna would be one where he gets on base at above league average for center fielders around .325 while not striking out as much.

Mar 1, 2014; Jupiter, FL, USA; Miami Marlins pitcher Andrew Heaney (70) throws a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

4. When do you expect to see some of the Marlins top minor league arms, including Andrew Heaney, reach the big leagues?

Ehsan Kassim: I see no reason not to expect to see Andrew Heaney in the Marlins rotation by mid-June, which should be after the Super-2 cut-off date. Heaney will take over the last rotation spot from Tom Koehler and thrive in that role for the rest of the season.

Chris Logel: The Marlins are fortunate that they have so many MLB ready arms. That being said there is a logjam currently at the top. It will be really interesting to see how Miami handles the possibility of a trade this season. Either way, we won’t see Andrew Heaney until after the deadline for service time to accumulate. I believe he will be the only one that we see from the starter’s this year.

Geoff Parkins: Barring injuries, September.  Our rotation is solid.

David Polakoff: Andrew Heaney will be the 5th starter by the beginning of July.

Andy Salgado: Do I have to answer this question? I was completely wrong about Jose last year and I’ve never been happier to be wrong. Let’s look at the top 3 pitchers for this one: Andrew Heaney, Justin Nicolino, and Anthony DeSclafani. Heaney will make it to the Major this year. Whether its because of injury or some pitchers not performing well I see him in the Majors by July. The other 2 will only get up if there is no other option for pitchers. If it’s anything like last year these 2 will get up and battle for Rookie of The Year if its anything like the prediction I made last years.

Placido Estevez: Heaney will reach the big leagues this season, but not until late in the year.

Esteban Bailey: At best, Heaney comes in midseason and the rest of the major league ready arms come in during September and hopefully help with the Marlin’s stretch run. However, the Marlins are a small market team so when Heaney passes the necessary financial deadlines, is probably the time he will get a shot in the Majors.

Daniel Zylberkan: Nicolino and DeSclafani will probably not pitch with the big league club this year as they aren’t nearly as far along their development as Heaney. Heaney will step into the rotation if either one of the current members really struggles or if there is a rash of injuries to it. By all accounts Heaney seems to be ready to pitch and be a star in the Major he just needs a path which most likely will happen given the amount of attrition inherent in playing a 162 game season.

Mar 3, 2014; Jupiter, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jacob Turner (33) delivers a pitch against the Houston Astros at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

5. Which Marlins player is a sleeper for the 2014 season? Which Marlins player is destined to be the biggest bust?

Ehsan Kassim: Jacob Turner is my sleeper. He’s been hitting 95-96 on the radar gun and had a much smoother Spring Training. I think by the season’s end, he stakes a major claim on a rotation spot going forward. My bust is Garrett Jones, as the Marlins will run him out against lefties one too many times, which is a major mistake, especially with some like Jeff Baker on the team.

Chris Logel: Sleepers and busts…As far as sleeper’s go I have to say that Jake Marisnick and Derek Dietrich are my two sleepers this year. I think both win starting jobs at some point during the season and go on to produce. If I am looking at busts this season, my money is on Jacob Turner and Rafael Furcal. I believe that Furcal is going to spend most of the season hurt and Turner is going to struggle on the mound. With Furcal hurt, I think the Marlins may be better off due to Dietrich and Solano’s play.

Geoff Parkins: Adeiny Hechavarria is the sleeper. His defense is underrated, and I don’t think it will be fully appreciated until the advanced defensive stats hit full stride in 2015. Dan Jennings will be the bust.  I see him packing for New Orleans sooner than later. Even as early as June.

David Polakoff: AJ Ramos is a sleeper. After the Marlins trade Cishek at the deadline, Ramos is going to step up into the closer role and have a fantastic August and September. Garrett Jones is going to be the biggest bust.

Andy Salgado: Derek Dietrich! I think he is going to stun everyone with his glove and bat this year and win a starting spot on the roster. Biggest bust? I hope no one but if I had to pick someone it would be Rafael Furcal. I hope he stays healthy but this off-season says other wise.

Placido Estevez: Tom Koehler will be the Marlins sleeper, passing Jacob Turner and Henderson Alvarez in the rotation pecking order. The biggest bust will be Rafael Furcal who will struggle with injuries all season.

Esteban Bailey: The Marlins biggest sleeper could be starter Jacob Turner, who seems like he has been in the Major’s for years, but his youth and experience could finally bring in a very solid season. For the biggest bust, it definitely has to be Case McGehee. While he is just a stopgap for the team, there needs to be  production from the hot corner and it remains to be seen if McGehee can transfer his play from last year in Japan, to the states.

Daniel Zylberkan: Derek Dietrich showed what he can do with his power bat last year and that was in a lineup where he was batting fourth behind Marcell Ozuna. If Dietrich is given the opportunity to hit sixth or seventh and be in a situation where his production will be life or death for the team he could “learn on the job” and cut down on his strikeouts and raise his walk rate and OBP. Dietrich’s development will be one of the biggest stories for the Marlins this season. Rafael Furcal started the season on the DL and I have feeling he will spend a lot more time there this year. He came so cheap it doesn’t really matter but it seems like Furcal’s injury history will bite yet another team and finally lead to his retirement after the 2014 season.

Mar 28, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Miami Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna (13) waits for his turn in the batting cage before the start of the spring training exhibition game against the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

7. How many games will the Marlins win in 2014? Where are they going to finish in the NL East?

Ehsan Kassim: The Marlins will win 74 games in 2014, an improvement of 12 games from the 2013 season. The team places in third place, just four games behind the Atlanta Braves for second place.

Chris Logel: I am predicting that the Marlins are going to finish 78-84 this year and finish in third place behind the Braves and Nationals.

Geoff Parkins: I’m not going above 90 until next year. I think the Marlins have timed their long game almost perfectly, especially with the sudden development of serious rotation problems in Atlanta and New York.  The Phillies have their own problems especially in the clubhouse, but the Nats will be tough. Strasburg/Harper is on par with Fernandez/Stanton, but the Nats won’t be as starstruck by winning as the Marlins will. I see the Marlins getting close to a wild card shot this year.

David Polakoff: The Marlins will win 74 games and finish 3rd in the NL East.

Andy Salgado: 89. I think that is good enough to put them in second place in the NL East.

Placido Estevez: The Marlins will win 76 games.  The Marlins will finish 3rd in the NL East ahead of the Mets and Phillies.

Esteban Bailey: I think the Marlins are capable of winning close to 80+ games this year, due to the excellent pitching, but realistically, I would say 75 wins would be a good estimate. I also think that Marlins will finally get out of the cellar and come in third place in a noticeably weaker NL East.

Daniel Zylberkan: This is the hardest question so far, if everyone stays relatively healthy and plays up to expectation I think the Marlins could win around 75 games (between 72 and 78) and if they overperform and Yelich, Ozuna and Dietrich have spectacular seasons they can get close to .500

Aug 17, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (right) receives his baseball glove and hat from teammate center fielder Jake Marisnick (left) during a game against the San Francisco Giants at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

8. Make a bold prediction (or two) for the upcoming Marlins season

Ehsan Kassim: Jake Marisnick makes a serious run for Rookie of the Year and a surprise prospect emerges to take over a position the Marlins seem to lack depth at.

Chris Logel: For bold predictions, I say that Jake Marisnick will finish in the top 3 of the N.L Rookie of the Year race, I also am going to predict that the Marlins place 3 players at the all-star game.

Geoff Parkins: Ticket sales improve. Alvarez blows out his elbow.

David Polakoff: The team goes on a hot streak in August. We don’t hear any tales of dysfunction from the clubhouse this season.

Andy Salgado: The Marlins will make the playoffs and get pretty far!

Placido Estevez: Derek Deitrich will take over the 2B job and run with it, effeectively “Pipping” Rafael Furcal, who will end up being released by July.

Esteban Bailey: The Marlins surprise and make a wild card run to finish the season due to Jose Fernandez’s Cy Young winning season and Giancarlo Stanton’s MVP like season.

Daniel Zylberkan: The Marlins will be playing meaningful games in September, I don’t actually think they can make the playoffs but they will not be a 100 loss embarrassment either it is entirely possible that they could be in the Wild Card chase with teams like Milwaukee, Colorado and San Diego. I think this is very bold but not entirely out of the realm of possibility: Derek Dietrich will have a breakout season and represent the Marlins at All Star Game in Minneapolis along with Giancarlo, Jose and Steve Cishek.