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Miami Marlins Season Review: Reviewing Ehsan Kassim’s Preseason Bold Predictions

By Ehsan Kassim |
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May 20, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (16) fields questions from reporters during a press conference at Marlins Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Before each season, I try to make bold predictions for what’s going to happen before each Miami Marlins season. I have done so for the past three seasons and the results have not gone as planned. In my first two years of making these bold predictions, I have gone just 2.5 out of 9.

Most of the time, my bold predictions look just stupid, but sometimes I do look like a genius. Last year, I did successfully and boldly predict that Jose Fernandez would win National League Rookie of the Year.

5. Jose Fernandez will win Rookie of the Year Full disclosure: My original pick to win this was St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Shelby Miller, but when the news broke that Fernandez would be on the Marlins opening day roster, I amended my pick. And boy do I look like a genius today for changing my pick last minute. Even though I picked Fernandez to win ROY, I still vastly underrated what he would do. I predicted he would throw 138 IP, post a 3.75 ERA and post a 3.17 K/BB ratio. I was close on the K/BB ratio, as he came in at 3.22 for the year. I was however way off on the ERA (2.19) and the innings pitched (172.2). Fernandez has not won the award yet, but even despite the season Yasiel Puig had, I don’t see the voters picking him over Fernandez for the award. I will give myself the point for now and change it if he does not end up winning it. Correct (1/4)

If I made one bold prediction correctly this season, I’d consider that a bigger moral victory than the Marlins improving their win total by 15 games from a season ago.

Jun 23, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Miami Marlins center fielder Marcell Ozuna (13), center fielder Jake Marisnick (23) and right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (27) celebrate winning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Marlins defeated the Phillies, 4-0. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

1. Jake Marisnick Wins Rookie of the Year

I don’t believe Marcell Ozuna is ready for the majors and that will be proven over the first month of the season. While Ozuna struggles, Marisnick will get off to a hot start in New Orleans and force the Marlins hand. Once he gets up to the majors, he’ll stick around post a 20/20 season in the big leagues, winning Rookie of the Year honors.

Whoops. This was not even remotely close to happening. Ozuna was easily the Marlins third best player for most of the season. His power reemerged, as he hit 23 blasts out of the park and his defense in center was a sight to see. In fact, Ozuna did so well this season, the Marlins actually had the luxury of trading Marisnick away.

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I was kind of way off on this one:

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While it’s too soon to say which player will end up with a better major league career, Ozuna seems to be the more sure bet at this point. Marisnick is still young enough to figure things out, but he’ll have a better opportunity to do so in Houston.

Wrong (0/1) 

Sep 13, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; A jersey of injured Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (no pictured) hangs in the Marlin dugout during game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

2. Giancarlo Stanton will hit 47 home runs

Stanton hit 10 less homer than I predicted before the season, ending up with 37. He was a sure bet fire to hit the 40-homer plateau if he didn’t get nailed in the face. Needing just 5 home runs and having most of September left, Stanton would have also likely defeated Gary Sheffield‘s franchise record of 42 home runs.

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Getting to 47 would have been a long shot, even if Stanton did not miss the final three weeks of the season. However, Stanton did improve a great deal at the plate, in terms of plate discipline. Despite him not reaching my lofty home run expectations, he did turn in an MVP caliber season with a .288/.395/.555 slash line with a 159 wRC+ and a 6.1 fWAR.

Maybe next season will be the one that we see Stanton smash the Marlins franchise single season mark.

Wrong (0/2)

Jul 28, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins player Rafael Furcal looks on from the dugout prior to a game against the Washington Nationals at Marlins Ballpark. Marlins won 7-6. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

3. Rafael Furcal spends majority of season on DL; Derek Dietrich thrives

When Furcal hit the DL with his hamstring woes, nobody outside of the Marlins front office was the least bit surprised. A guy with a long injury history that missed the entirety of the previous season dealt with more injuries? How did you not see this coming?

Furcal played a grand total of 30 games all season, with only 9 of those being major league games with the Marlins. In the time that he did play, he was extremely unproductive. Furcal’s slash line for the 2014 season reads, .171/.216/.229 with a career high strikeout percentage of 18.9%.

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Dietrich started the season as the Marlins starting second baseman due to Furcal’s woes. Unfortunately, he had his own injury during Spring Training that caused issues for him. He was struck on the face on a funny hop groundball near the end of spring and had issues in the beginning of the season when fielding grounders because of his tentativeness due to the injury.

Despite being one of the Marlins better bats in his time in the majors, the Marlins decided to demote Dietrich and allow him to work on his defense in the minors. What actually happened was Dietrich dominating minor league pitching, but also spending a great deal of time on the DL down there.

The Marlins didn’t call him up when the rosters expanded in September, which puts his future as a Marlin in question now.

Half-Right (0.5/3)

Sep 28, 2014; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Jacob Turner (38) pitches in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

4. Jacob Turner moves up Marlins rotation latter

By the season’s end, I expect Turner to fully throw himself into the discussion of being a part of the Marlins future rotation for many seasons to come, right along Jose Fernandez, Andrew Heaney, and Nathan Eovaldi.

Go ahead, I’ll allow you some time to laugh at me.

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Done? Well, I was dead wrong on this one, but Turner was really not as bad as his numbers suggested, as I pointed out when the Marlins let the Cubs have him for essentially free.

Not only was I wrong about Turner, but I underestimated Henderson Alvarez, who actually emerged as the Marlins best starter for the 2014 season.

Wrong (0.5/4)

May 7, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins center fielder Marcell Ozuna (center) celebrates with teammates after hitting the game winning sacrifice fly in the ninth inning as New York Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy (28) walks off the field at Marlins Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

5. The Marlins will lead the NL East as late as early June

This has to be my boldest prediction yet. I am calling for a fast start to the 2014 Miami Marlins season, where they jump out to an early division lead, only to see the Washington Nationals take back over by the beginning of June and never look back. The first two months of the season will see the Marlins riding high behind their strong starting pitching, before injuries and ineffectiveness knock a starter or two out of the rotation, leading to a long, losing June. June historically has been a deadly month for the Marlins, and it will be no different in 2014.

On June 4th, the Marlins were a half game back of the Atlanta Braves for 1st place in the NL East. On May 9th, the last start of Fernandez’s season, the Marlins were in a first place tie with the Braves. That was the last day they were in first for the 2014 season. If it were not for Fernandez’s injury, the Marlins would very likely have held an early June lead in the division.

A 11-15 June sent the Marlins to 5.5 games out of the division lead, but still breathing for life. The team actually was in and out of contention for a majority of the season, until the Giancarlo injury acted as the final nail in the Marlins coffin.

While it’s hard for me to admit I was completely wrong about this prediction because a healthy Fernandez helps the Marlins keep their hopes alive, I cannot give myself credit for something that didn’t happen.

Wrong (0.5/5)

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With another season full of bold wrong predictions done, I am now 3 out of 14 on these predictions. That comes out to a .176 batting average, I guess I’m still better than Jeff Mathis!

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