Josh Beckett: Where Does He Rank In Marlins History?

With Josh Beckett retiring this week, it seems fitting that we take some time to look back at Josh’s Marlins career, but first, if you haven’t read Marlin Maniac writer Travis Honeycutt’s article on Beckett, stop right now and click here. It is a great look back at Josh’s history both as a Marlin and on other teams, and really does a great job putting into perspective what Beckett meant to the Marlins and the fans.

Now for the real reason you clicked here. Where does Beckett fall on the all-time Marlins pitching list? Keep in mind this is subjective, but I feel that I can make a pretty good statistical case for his ranking. For starters, in case it wasn’t clear enough, I am not including hitters in this ranking. This will just be discussing pitchers.

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I began looking at Fangraphs.com, which is where I will be getting most of my statistics from. I mention that because each site calculates their WAR a little differently, so keep that in mind. If you go just on WAR, Beckett lands at 7th all-time in Marlins history with a solid 12.7. The thing about WAR though, is that it measures over a career. So Beckett’s 12.7 was accumulated over 5 seasons, while Ricky Nolasco‘s 18.6 WAR was over 7 1/2 seasons, and more than twice as many innings pitched.

So how do we compare Nolasco’s career, or other Marlins pitchers, with Beckett. Certainly there is something to be said about longevity with the franchise. Nolasco, a good pitcher in his own right, holds numerous Marlins records that are based upon going out practically every 5th day to pitch for the Fish. Beckett’s disabled list struggles are well documented, and are definitely a factor in the rankings.

Just as Beckett’s injury history with the Marlins hurt him, his propensity for big game pitching helps him. We all remember game 6 of the 2003 World Series, a 5-hitter that Beckett executed while willing the Fish to their second world title. Surely that performance alone has to be factored into our decision.

In looking at the Marlins top 10, It would be helpful to group them into frontline starters (all-stars if that is a helpful way to think about it) and workhorses that the Marlins could count on. I don’t want to take anything away from the workhorses, but if we are looking at top pitchers in Marlins history, I think a frontline starter garners more weight. I see 4 starters that truly earned frontline status. Josh Johnson, Dontrelle Willis, Kevin Brown, and Beckett. Jose Fernandez is well on his way to joining this group.

That isn’t to say that the other pitchers didn’t make it to an all-star team, or that they didn’t kick off the season as the ace of a Marlins staff, merely that other teams wouldn’t have been interested in giving a top player in exchange for that pitcher at the time that they were making that start. If I was looking at a must-win game and needed to pick one pitcher in Marlins history to make a start, I would likely be choosing from the previous list.

Taking this into account I place Beckett 2nd all-time, behind only Josh Johnson. JJ’s longevity as a Marlin won out, albeit slightly with his injury history as well. Both pitchers were similar, relying on heavy, ground-ball inducing off speed pitches to go along with electric fastballs. In the end, it was impossible not to look at the cumulative WAR, and when innings pitched were divided by WAR, only Kevin Brown was higher than Becket and JJ, which is why I have him 3rd all-time.

What do you think about my top 3 of Johnson, Beckett, and Brown? Let me know in the comments below and let the discussion begin!

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