Giancarlo Stanton Update: How Much Will Marlins Offer?

Recently the New York Post’s Joel Sherman wrote an article outlining why $30 million dollars a year may not be enough to sign Giancarlo Stanton to a long-term deal. This is interesting because many of the numbers that we have heard have been around the $25 million dollar range, which in itself is an extravagant amount of money for the Miami Marlins.

Here is what Sherman is thinking about the contract comparison.

Mike Trout’s six-year contract averages $24.083 million, but he signed last spring training, four years before he could be a free agent and without even having gone through the arbitration system yet. Stanton is due to be a free agent after the 2016 season and already made $6.5 million in 2014. Keep in mind the last three years of Trout’s contract are for $33.25 million annually – coinciding with what would have been free-agent campaigns.

I understand what Sherman is saying here. Basically Miami has less leverage than the Angels did because Stanton is closer to free agency than Trout was. While I would love to see Stanton wreck stadium seats in Miami for years to come, this could end up being a cautionary tale for a desperate franchise.

Various reports have claimed that Miami is going to be upping their salary ceiling this year to $60 million dollars. While this is good news for fans, don’t expect the ceiling to get much higher than that in years to come. Miami hasn’t been able to attract their fan base to the ball field for years. Sure, there have been excellent reasons ranging from “it’s too hot outside” (when they played outdoors) to “I hate the owner” (which is what many fans say today).

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Whatever your thoughts on Jeffrey Loria are, he isn’t going to pour money into a franchise in Miami without getting a return on it. He doesn’t have ties to Florida, and it’s not like he is desperate to bring another World Series back to his childhood home in Miami (which doesn’t exist).

It is for this reason that I believe $60 million is the top end of what we are going to see, which brings us back to Stanton’s contract. If Miami were to pay him north of $30 million a year, that is more than half of Miami’s salary tied up in one player. Stanton is great, just not that great. It will be very difficult for them to provide Giancarlo with the depth that is necessary to be anything more than a playoff pretender. The money just doesn’t add up.

We have seen this play out in the past. Alex Rodriguez signed a monster deal with the Texas Rangers who quickly realized that they were not able to pay one person that amount of money and field a competitive team. They ended up trading him to the New York Yankees, and we have seen how well that turned out.

I am not saying that I don’t want Stanton on the team, I am only saying that Miami could get a lot in return for a trade that would include him. They would likely be able to recoup the loss of his numbers with the upgrades at various other positions.

What do you think? If the Marlins extend Stanton to a big contract, will they be able to get enough talent elsewhere to compete for the playoffs? Let us know in the comments below.