David Schoenfield Ranks Marlins 20th in ESPN Rankings

Nov 19, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; The jumbotron shows a photo of Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton after a press conference at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Spring Training is drawing nearer for the Miami Marlins and the rest of baseball. Real baseball is almost here, but first, we need to get through Spring Training baseball.

Part of the fun of this time of the year has to be reading people’s predictions for the upcoming season. Over on the ESPN Sweet Spot Blogging Network senior editor David Schoenfield has done a power ranking of how teams will fare in 2015.

Unfortunately, he doesn’t see a bright 2015 for the Marlins, as he pegs them as the 20th best team in baseball for the upcoming season.

Obviously, Marlins fans are going to be quick to write David off as a “hater” of the team, but we’ll take a look at what he had to say about the team to see if whether what he said holds any water.

Big offseason moves: Signed Giancarlo Stanton to a $325 million extension that is heavily backloaded and allows Stanton to opt out after six seasons; acquired 3B Martin Prado and RHP David Phelps from the Yankees for RHP Nathan Eovaldi and 1B/OF Garrett Jones; acquired 2B Dee Gordon, RHP Dan Haren and SS Miguel Rojas from the Dodgers for LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Chris Hatcher, 2B Enrique Hernandez and C Austin Barnes; acquired RHP Mat Latos from the Reds for RHP Anthony DeSclafani and C Chad Wallach; signed 1B Mike Morse; traded 3B Casey McGehee to the Giants for two minor leaguers; acquired RHP Aaron Crow from the Royals; signed OF Ichiro Suzuki.

Nothing new here for Marlins fans that have kept track of the offseason. David just lists the notable moves of the offseason for the team. There’s nothing to analyze here at all.

Next: Most Intriguing Player?

Nov 19, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton fields questions from reporters after his press conference at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports Most intriguing player: Stanton. The contract. The power. The comeback from his late-season beaning.

Nothing surprising here, either. Just like in 2014, the Marlins will go as far as their superstar and MVP carries them. In 2014 Stanton had a monster season, smashing a career high of 37 home runs and posting an impressive .288/.395/.555 slash line.

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This was good for a 6.1 fWAR in 145 games and 638 plate appearances. Unfortunately, Stanton’s season ended prematurely, when he was beaned in the face with a baseball. It remains a major question mark on how Stanton will recover from the beaning, when he steps into the batters box for the first time.

In the offseason, the Miami Marlins made Giancarlo Stanton the richest man in American sports, giving him a 12-year $325 million contract. This means he’s also going to have higher expectations moving forward.

Stanton was in the national spotlight for one of the first times in last year’s Home Run Derby, and he didn’t disappoint. You better bet the world is going to be paying even more attention now with his contract. Let’s hope he delivers for the Marlins.

Next: Due for a Better Year?

Sep 1, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Henderson Alvarez (37) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the New York Mets at Marlins Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports Due for a worse year: Henderson Alvarez drives analysts crazy because he went 12-7 with a 2.65 ERA despite a strikeout rate that ranked 83rd among 88 qualified starters. Alvarez does get ground balls — eighth in ground ball rate — but he also held batters to a .209 average and just one home run with runners in scoring position. Here’s betting that ERA climbs over 3.00.

Alvarez had a huge breakout 2014 campaign, but the chances of him repeating that in 2015 isn’t very likely. As David points out, Alvarez ranked 83rd out of 88 qualified starters in striking hitters out.

Only three pitchers have posted a 2.70 ERA and a K/9 below 6 in the past 5-years. So what Alvarez did last year was pretty rare.

But that doesn’t mean he isn’t a good pitcher. Alvarez, in my view, is still a very capable number 2 starter, just not the ace he pitched like last season.

Alvarez posted a 3.58 FIP and a 3.57 xFIP in 2014, which is probably closer to his true level as a pitcher. Steamer projects a 3.90 ERA and a 3.70 FIP in 2015 for Alvarez in 163 innings. I see Alvarez doing better than that, but we’ll get into that later as we jump into the season preview.

While fans may not like what David has to say about Henderson Alvarez, he’s not wrong in this case. Alvarez is a pretty good pitcher, but he’s not quite the caliber pitcher he was last season.

Next: Questionable Moves?

Oct 7, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez (13) is congratulated by second baseman Dee Gordon (9) after scoring a run against the St. Louis Cardinals in the 6th inning during game four of the 2014 NLDS baseball playoff game at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports I’m just the messenger: The Marlins made a lot of moves and acquired some big names … but did they really do anything but reshuffle the deck chairs? Gordon led the NL in steals and triples but also struggled to get on base in the second half. Haren has stated his preference to pitch for a California team and he hasn’t had an ERA under 4.00 since 2011, so is he really an upgrade over Eovaldi? Latos had bone chips removed after 2013, had knee surgery in spring training, had a strained flexor mass in his elbow, eventually made 16 starts but his strikeout rate and velocity were down and then was scratched down the stretch with a bone bruise in his elbow. Going out on a limb, but he’s not a good bet to give the Marlins 30 starts.

The Marlins had a good offseason, there’s no denying that. The team should be improved for their 2014 roster, and has a chance to contend. But David is not wrong here questioning some of the moves, as we have on Marlin Maniac.

To get Dee Gordon, the Marlins did give up quite a haul. As David points out, Gordon didn’t have the best second half, which ironically is the reason the Marlins decided to rid of Casey McGehee.

In the first half of 2014, Gordon posted a .292/.344/.398 slash line, but finished the second half with a .284/.300/.348 slash line. This was despite his BABIP going up .04 points in the second half. In the second half Gordon walked just over 1% of the time and struck out 18% of the time.

The Marlins believing in him the way they do is a little scary.

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Mat Latos is a fine pitcher, when he’s healthy. But he was not in 2014 and Steamers actually has he and Anthony DeSclafani, the guy he was traded for, posting similar numbers in 2015. If that’s the case, the Marlins could be in trouble.

Haren is not a better pitcher than Eovaldi at this stage, so the Marlins rotation took a slight hit, filling Haren into Eovaldi’s slot in the rotation.

If Latos can return to his 2013 form and Gordon can be first half 2014 Gordon all season long, the Marlins will be in great shape. If not, they invested a lot in two players who aren’t who the Marlins believe to they are.

Next: The Verdict?

May 4, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (16) throws during the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Marlins Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports The final word: OK, I love the outfield: Stanton, Yelich and Marcell Ozuna. Stanton is the oldest of the trio at 25 and all three have All-Star potential. I love Jose Fernandez, but he’s not going to be back until late June or so and we don’t if he’ll be back at full throttle. I think there’s a good chance they get very little out of Latos and Haren. The middle infield defense is more flash than substance, at least according to the metrics. The depth is worrisome. Young teams can take big leaps in a hurry but I wonder if the Marlins need another year to consolidate the talent. Prediction: 79-83

A 79-win season is not something many Marlins fans want to see. While it is a 2-game improvement over the 2014 season, it’s not a .500 record and won’t be anywhere near enough to contend for a playoff spot.

I’m not going to knock David’s prediction of 79-wins, as he provides sound reasoning for why he doesn’t believe in the Marlins. It’s not like he took a random number out of the air and said “this is how many games the Marlins will win.”

I do respectfully disagree with his record prediction for the Fish. I’d peg the Marlins around a 82-85 win team, depending on how a couple of players progress and how the Marlins fair with injuries. The team lacks depth, so an injury to one of the starters could be fatal to the team’s playoff chances.

As David does point out, the Marlins outfield is excitable and are likely the best outfield unit in all of baseball. If Jose Fernandez returns to dominant form, he’s also one of the more exciting players in baseball.

Hopefully the Marlins can prove David wrong, but he makes a very compelling case on why he doesn’t believe in the Marlins.