Miami Marlins RTD: Best, Worst Moves of Offseason?

Nov 19, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; The jumbotron shows a photo of Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton after a press conference at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to our first Miami Marlins Round Table Discussion. On today’s agenda, we’ll be grading the Marlins offseason, assessing the best and worst moves, as well as making a prediction for how many games the Marlins can win in 2015.

1. What Grade would you give the Marlins offseason? Why?

Ehsan Kassim: B+. The offseason began with a big bang, as the Marlins were able to lock up Giancarlo Stanton long term. Unfortunately, despite the efforts of the front office, the end of the offseason ended with a sizzle, as James Shields didn’t decide to bring his talents to Marlins Park.

Daniel Zylberkan: B; I think we made a lot of positive moves the biggest of which was locking up Giancarlo Stanton long term. But most importantly I think we made a lot of moves that shows that Loria and management seem to be committed to wining now. Mat Latos is a clear top of the rotation guy and I am huge fan of the Martin Prado deal.

Miller Lepree: Grade: B+. The team actively looked to improve, doing so on a tiny budget. They managed upgrades at three infield positions, and one (possibly 2) rotation spots. They were willing to part with young talent, but they did drastically overpay for Dee Gordon. Overall, I’m happy with the offseason and excited for 2015. 

Travis Honeycutt: I would give the Marlins offseason an A for effort and a B+ for execution. Loria and Co. acknowledged that changes need to be made, and they set out to do so. Unfortunately, this came at the expense of too many quality prospects for the return they got. Trading Heaney to acquire Dee Gordon and Dan Haren is a bummer. Gordon is probably going to regress and his career OBP scares me, but the Marlins were probably attracted to his “shiny” batting average last year. And at least Haren will probably pitch for the Marlins after all, if not to just eat innings in the back of the rotation. I also don’t like losing DeSclafani. I think the Marlins gave up on him too soon. If Latos stays healthy and is even close to the same pitcher he’s been for most of his career, then great. But Miami will probably only have him for one season, so enjoy it while it lasts. Signing Morse was also a solid move unless he, too regresses like the projection systems think he will. He’s still a clear upgrade over Jones, though, so I’ll take it. Oh, and I almost forgot they signed Stanton to that infinity-million dollar deal. Nevermind, the Marlins get an A+ just for that.

Dillon Murrell: B-. The Marlins did well to lock up Stanton to deal that, by current valuation methods, looks to be about fair value. However, the team failed to lock up any other core players or secure any cost certainty, outside of Mike Dunn. Those two things are very important for low payroll teams. While the Marlins gave a valiant effort in trying to sign James Shields, not doing so makes the Dee Gordon and Martin Prado deals look suspect. The Latos trade, even if he pitches in Miami for just one season, was a good deal. Desclafani has the makings of a starter, but following the Gordon deal, dealing him to secure wins for the current season was a good move. Did the team really add enough value to this year’s team to justify giving up all the future value and years of control they surrendered? Offseason deals need to be looked at as a whole, rather than individually, and they seemingly did not add enough especially when what they gave up in trades is considered. The Stanton extension was big and bumps them up to a B- from what would have been a C or C+.

Chris Posada: B+. Nothing overly sexy, but it got the job done. The Stanton deal was a no-brainer. The numbers look gaudy, but really it’s team friendly over the first three years of the deal. before spiking the next three. This give the Marlins some wiggle room to operate financially. LOVE the Latos deal. Gordon was ok; Miami needed to address second base and they did it with an All-Star that can fly. Granted, he doesn’t get on base as much as you’d like from a leadoff hitter, but he’s still young and under team control for the next few years, so there’s room to see what they have. Haren can be the X-Factor of that deal. Morse was also a nice pickup, as well as the deal for Prado. Ichiro as a bat off the bench will be odd to see, but he can still hit (.284 in 2014).

May 13, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Dee Gordon (9) slides into second base beneath the tag of Miami Marlins shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria (3) on a double in the sixth inning at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers defeated the Marlins 7-1. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

3. What was the worst move of the offseason? 

Call to the Pen

Kassim: Neither the Aaron Crow nor the Dee Gordon trade make much sense to me, still. Neither improved the team as much as the Marlins would like to think and both trades likely hurt the Marlins in the future, as they traded a ton of talent and didn’t get a whole lot in return.

Zylberkan: The Dee Gordon trade. The Marlins traded a very exciting player, Andrew Heaney, one of the best young left handed pitching prospects in the league and two very versatile guys with lots of value Kike Hernandez and Austin Barnes to the Dodgers in return for a speed only second baseman who had a career high OBP of .321 last year and isn’t a particularly good fielder. Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi fleeced the Marlins, its like they were trying to do their best Dave Dombrowski impression.

Lepree: Acquiring Dee Gordon/Dan Haren. This deal was a real head scratcher. Andrew Heaney for Gordon straight up would like have been an overpay. Enrique Hernandez and Chris Hatcher weren’t exactly throw-ins, which that’s my main beef with this deal. The Fish lost a lot of depth, and gained a one dimensional player alongside, an aged pitcher, who has caused more drama than any episode of CSI Miami. The real kicker was seeing the Dodgers flip Heaney for a better second baseman in Howie Kendrick.

Honeycutt: The worst move of the offseason was not finding a replacement for Adeiny Hechavarria. I mean, they upgraded literally every other infield position, but they couldn’t muster up something better than Hech? Kidding, kidding. I still contend that the worst move was the Gordon trade. I really, really want Gordon to do what he did with the Dodgers last year and steal a ton of bases, have a high on-base leading off and all that. I just get the bad feeling he’s going to be Emilio Bonifacio 2.0: a one-tool player that pitchers figure out how to exploit very quickly.

Murrell: The worst move is definitely the Gordon trade. While I like the player Gordon is (he seems to have made the adjustments needed to allow his speed to be a factor in games), surrendering that much future value was not necessary. Also, Haren will probably not be any better than any of the Marlins’ internal options, especially if Heaney was still with the organization. Dealing prospects to secure wins in the short term is a good move, but you have to run an effective cost benefit analysis. Too much value was given up for guys that simply aren’t pivotal points of the team.

Posada: Nothing really glaring stands out. Some might scoff at giving up prospects for Gordon, but those can be such a crap shoot. Speed at the top of the lineup can help wreck havoc on opposing pitchers, and Gordon helps shore up a second base spot that was a revolving door last season. Plus if Haren decides to pitch – which seems to be the case, at the moment – then he could be the gravy in that trade, as Marlins Park can suit his fly ball tendencies. If he can find something resembling his old form, then what turned out to be a throw-in can actually pay dividends, whether as important starter or trade chip.

Jul 2, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels (35) takes the mound during the fifth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Ballpark. The Marlins won 5-0. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

4. Should the Marlins stand pat or make one more roster move?

Kassim: As I wrote yesterday, signing K-Rod is not the answer for the Marlins. Rather, the team should see if they can make a run at Cole Hamels. However, that is doubtful, as the Marlins don’t have a ton to offer the Phillies.

Zylberkan: I think this team as good as it will get right now. No reason to make risky moves like going after Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano or Phil Coke.

Lepree: Stand pat. The only rumored move would be singing K-rod, but that would be a pointless signing. The Marlins have better, younger, cheaper in house options. See: Carter Capps.

Honeycutt: At this juncture there’s no point in making another move besides the odd NRI with invite to spring training. Shields wasn’t happening, but man, it was fun to think for a second that it might have. The bullpen is fine, so signing K-Rod or Rafael Soriano would be a waste of money for a marginal improvement (if any) to what the team already has in camp. 

More from Marlin Maniac

• Miami Marlins news: Another target gone
• Why didn’t the Miami Marlins sign JDM?
• Miami Marlins rejected Boston‘s trade offer
• Miami Marlins are pursuing Michael Conforto
• Miami Marlins need to spend to win

Murrell: At this point, the only theoretical move to be made is trading for Cole Hamels. Therefore, there aren’t any more moves to be made. The Marlins have made all the moves they’re going to make and any future signings or trades will simply be organizational depth. Their roster is finished and they should stand pat.

Posada: Stand pat. James Shields pursuit would have been the lone move they could have made at this point, but otherwise they don’t have any glaring holes to fill.

Aug 2, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (center) celebrates with right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (left) after defeating the Cleveland Indians 10-0 at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

5. As of today, where do you peg the Marlins win total for the 2015 season?

Kassim: I have the Marlins as roughly an 84-win team. That number could change as I finish my season preview analysis, which we’ll be getting into in the next couple of weeks.

Zylberkan: With good injury luck and Jose Fernandez coming back as early as the middle of June I think the Marlins will be a step below being in Wild Card contention. 85 wins. They are unfortunately one player away and need a serious upgrade over Adeiny Hechavarria at the shortstop position.

Lepree: I’m taking the over and going with 88 wins. I think and hope that things play out nicely, and Jose Fernandez returns as (most of) his old self, propelling his squad into October for the first time in 11 years. 

Honeycutt: I think the Marlins will either “meh” or terrible this year. The former relies on most guys playing to their projections and allots for a couple down years from key guys; somewhere around the 83-84 win mark. That also assumes almost everyone stays healthy. If the team is around .500 or so when Jose Fernandez comes back, they might make a move or two at the trade deadline and really go for it all. Because, again, Loria and his dudes know that they probably have a very small window in which to contend. I still think they fall just short of the Wild Card though. The damn Nationals are going to be too good. And my “terrible” prediction would be similar to what happened to the Marlins in 2012, or if a bunch of guys gets hurt. Say Latos gets hurt again and a certain sexy right fielder pulls something trying to leg out a single (again) and Henderson Alvarez regresses to well below his mean, it could be a disastrous season — like 92 losses. But I don’t think this team will have the dysfunction or divas the ’12 club had (I’m looking at you, Hanley Ramirez.)

Murrell: Unfortunately, I didn’t get to run my yearly projections prior to this post. However, I’d peg the Marlins for 83 wins.

Posada: 83 wins. They’re moving in the right direction and should be make noise late into the season, but will ultimately fall short. Fernandez missing the first few months could hold them back, so it’s going to be important to see how the rest of the staff picks up the slack. As long as their young bats can take another step forward, this team will fun to watch. I really think 2016 is when they blossom into a major NL contender.