Miami Marlins are 29th on ESPN MLB Analytics Rankings

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Nov 19, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins vice president & general manager Dan Jennings (left) and president baseball Operations Michael Hill (right) right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (center) pose for a photograph after their press conference at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN released earlier this week a feature that ranked all the teams in the four major North American sports leagues in terms of their of acceptance and adoption of analytics. The Miami Marlins not surprisingly landed 29th in MLB — second-to-last ahead of only the Philadelphia Phillies — and 115th overall, with only seven teams ranking lower than the Fish.

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The Marlins are one of the most “traditional” franchises in baseball and it shows in their approach in all of the facet of player development, free agency and in trades. This approach also extends into the dugout and even inside the lineups. The use of analytics is used to inform decision-making, both in roster construction and in-game, and the Marlins obviously shun both of these aspects.

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Apr 29, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (16) throws the ball against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Marlins Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

We ARE Selling Jeans Here.

The contradiction is not necessarily the lack of analytics, it’s the Marlins inherent belief in the “eye test.” The Marlins track record in believing in the eye test and traditional scouting over the past few years has led to some truly disconcerting decision making as well as some great successes. Let’s start on the negative end of the spectrum. The end of the Larry Beinfest era was dominated by what some may call some very questionable draft picks contrasted by a couple would-be superstars. The thing is that with the eye test alone the Marlins drafted Kyle Skipworth and Matt Dominguez but on the other hand also signed Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez.

I understand what Marlins scouts and personnel saw in Skipworth: a big left-handed power-hitting catcher who had all the tools behind the plate. Skipworth coming out of high school definitely projected to be a Matt Wieters type, a supremely athletic catcher with legitimate power. The player they got slashed .215/.279/.383 in over 2000 minor league at-bats. The power was there as he hit 82 career minor league homers, but he lacked in virtually all other areas. He struck out way too much and didn’t walk nearly enough. In short Skipworth was one tool player that unsurprisingly failed to develop any others and therefore failed to even have more than a cafecito with the big club.

The opposite example is when the eye test is so undeniable, so clear that analytics is completely unnecessary in decision-making. Such was the case with Jose Fernandez. It doesn’t take a sabermetric brain trust to figure out that this could be a legitimate Major League pitcher. Just by perusing his Max Preps page (with the least bit of an educated eye coupled with any scouting experience it was easy to see that Fernandez would have a future in the majors.)

Next: BABIP

Oct 6, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Dee Gordon (9) hits a single during the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals in game three of the 2014 NLDS baseball playoff game at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

BABIP, we don’t need no steenkin’ BABIP

The draft and international free agency are just one aspect that is informed by analytics. Another arguably more important factor is how a team chooses to go about its decisions in free agency and in transactions with other teams. The Marlins proved they have a complete lack of analytical knowledge earlier this offseason when they traded three very intriguing prospects, Austin Barnes, Enrique Hernandez and Andrew Heaney for Dee Gordon and Dan Haren. Heaney was one of the premier left-handed pitching prospects in all of baseball and Hernandez and Barnes were both multifaceted and multidimensional players who had a future playing a variety of roles for a baseball team.

Dee Gordon had a breakout year last year in which he stole 64 bases, but that came on the back of an inflated .346 BABIP. The odds are is that his BABIP will regress to the mean and he will have a year more akin to his 2013 (.234/.314/.298) than his 2014 (.289/.326/.378). Either way Gordon is nothing more than a league-average offensive second baseman with a below-league-average glove.

The story is much the same with Mike Morse who also had a .348 BABIP in 2014. Miami’s first baseman strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough to justify his high HR/FB ratio and ISO. Morse is an interesting case if he can stay healthy and can somehow improve his plate discipline and pitch selection. He could be one of the premier power hitters in baseball but at the moment he will always be a second banana nothing more than a complementary player who can never fulfill his potential.

BABIP is just one example of an advanced stat the Marlins seem to ignore when making personnel decisions. Some advanced stats are more pertinent than others, but it is quite obvious that if the Marlins aren’t paying attention to even BABIP, how can they know what xFIP or defensive runs saved is?

Next: To bunt or not to bunt?

Sep 7, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins left fielder Christian Yelich (21) hits a single in the sixth inning as Atlanta Braves catcher Evan Gattis (24) looks on at Marlins Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

What do you mean bunting isn’t a good idea?

Much of this philosophy is even more significant in-game, where managers are making decisions stemming from outdated theories of how the game should be played, as it was during the middle of the twentieth century. The familiar 1-2-3-4 in the batting order is a construct that doesn’t mesh well with what analytics has to say. The Book says that a team should hit its best hitter second in the order not sacrifice an out to move up the leadoff man up into scoring position. It seems at this point that Mike Redmond plans to hit Dee Gordon in the leadoff spot and to hit Christian Yelich behind him. That means that we’re going to see Yelich, the second-best hitter on the Marlins roster, laying down bunt after bunt, or even worse hitting with the bases empty because Gordon was caught stealing during his at-bat.

I’m not saying it’s fair to expect Redmond to fully embrace analytics and trot out an optimized lineup and have no set bullpen roles. What I’m saying is the lack of analytics knowledge impacts every facet of a team. And one of the most frustrating things in baseball is when a manager refuses to be progressive and hurts the team as a result of his old school philosophy of game management.

Next: Don't get left behind

Jul 7, 2014; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Miami Marlins manager Mike Redmond against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Conclusion

It doesn’t surprise me that the Marlins rank so low in their adoption of analytics. Every facet of the organization shows this from bullpen management to player personnel decisions. Scouting, the eye test and baseball knowledge has its place and it will never be completely obsolete. Modern analytics is just a great innovation to better parse out what the naked eye can’t see, or the individual’s biases seem to either highlight or obscure. Data is obviously a good thing, and if the Marlins want to be a truly competitive team, they need to embrace data and empirical processes in their decision-making or risk being left behind.

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