Three Things that Could Sink the Miami Marlins in 2015

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Mar 10, 2015; Jupiter, FL, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder

Giancarlo Stanton

(left) greets teammate second baseman

Dee Gordon

(right) after Gordon scored a run against the Washington Nationals during a spring training game at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

As Spring Training drags on and enters its third week with two more to go baseball fans are finally starting to look at their teams, not just from the point of view of the offseason that was but the season that will be. Just like the cliche says, “hope springs eternal” this time of year but all of this unabashed optimism isn’t very fun for a guy for me that looks at baseball through a critical lense.

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There is much to be positive about for Marlins fans. The team signed Giancarlo Stanton to a record long-term deal, he is teamed up by one of the best outfields in baseball and they have made moves that show that they are ready to contend now. Despite all of this there are still several issues with this roster, many of which are direct results of the transactions the Marlins front office made in the offseason, and some are just results of questionable baseball decisions stemming from the team’s outlook on the game of baseball itself.

These include the barren state of the Marlins farm system, the problem posed by employing Jarrod Saltalamacchia as the everyday catcher and the continued presence of Adeiny Hechavarria in the lineup.

Next: START SLIDESHOW (use left and right arrows)

Feb 18, 2014; Jupiter, FL, USA; Miami Marlins

Justin Nicolino

(79) in spring training action at Roger Dean Stadium Mandatory Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports

Organizational depth – State of the Organization Address

At this point last year the Marlins were not close to being postseason contenders and they definitely weren’t a sexy pick to make it to the World Series but they were full of potential.

The Marlins farm system in 2014 featured Jake Marisnick, Colin Moran, J.T. Realmuto and Avery Romero on the position player side and Andrew Heaney, Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Nicolino along with Adam Conley and Jose Urena. The Marlins had so much pitching depth in the organization last year coupled with the young, cost-controlled pitching already in the majors it was hard to imagine few teams that had more assets than the Marlins.

The picture is much different today as we stand on the verge of another season. Moran and Marisnick begat Jarred Cosart, Heaney was integral in the Marlins acquiring Dee Gordon and DeSclafani was key to the Mat Latos trade.

Realmuto is no longer a prospect but an integral part of the Marlins’ plans at backstop which effectively only leaves Romero as a top hitting prospect for the in the minor league system. Many other characters like Justin Bour and Viosergy Rosa are not prospects as such but just a necessary part of a roster given Michael Morse‘s injury history.

Ironically, the Marlins were better suited to dealing with injuries (especially to the starting rotation) last year than they are this year. The team sold the so-called farm this off-season in order to contend right now no matter what the cost was. The major league roster is undoubtedly stronger but the entire organization isn’t better off today than it was last year.

Next: The Disaster Behind the Plate

Mar 7, 2015; Jupiter, FL, USA; New York Mets center fielder

Juan Lagares

(12) avoids a wild pitch as Miami Marlins catcher

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

(39) fields the ball during a spring training baseball game at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Catching- If you’re going to strike out 30% of the time at least be a decent pitch framer

The Marlins front office have tipped their hands: they like signing power hitters from World Series winning teams who are South Florida natives, doing so two years in a row in 2014 with Jarrod Saltalamacchia and in 2015 with Michael Morse. There is something else that Morse and Saltalamacchia have in common: their terrible plate discipline and pitch selection and marginal defense.

The Marlins have nearly no shot at being true contenders if their catcher has a .661 OPS and -8 DRS. Catcher is a position where you sacrifice production for defense and vice versa but it is unacceptable to have a catcher who can’t hit and is a disaster behind the plate.

Perhaps Salty really should stop switch hitting to improve his offense.

The question becomes even more complicated when the Marlins seem willing to trot out Jeff Mathis, he of the career-.563 OPS, out there every few days. A best solution would be a Saltalamacchia platoon with Realmuto, who has shown promise in the minor leagues, and just cutting ties with Mathis. But the Marlins overvalue Mathis for some reason, which is why they are willing to essentially gift him a 25-man roster spot for a third straight season.

In short, anything would be better than Saltalamacchia catching 110-120 games with Mathis catching the rest.

Next: Everyone's Favorite Shortstop

Sep 26, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Miami Marlins shortstop

Adeiny Hechavarria

(3) throws to first base during the sixth inning against the Washington Nationals in game one of a baseball doubleheader at Nationals Park. Washington Nationals defeated Miami Marlins 4-0. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Adeiny Hechavarria Conundrum that aims to tear the Marlins fans base in twain. (A Hech divided against itself cannot stand)

Another baseball season is here and here we are with the much maligned/praised Adeiny Hechavarria manning the shortstop position for the Marlins.

The discussion surrounding Hechavarria is no longer a question of how good or bad he is; it has become a question of what Hechavarria means. A lot of people in the organization and surrounding it, characters like Joe Frisaro or Tommy Hutton like him because of the “eye test.” They cite the opinion of other baseball people, scouts, executives, coaches saying something akin to “Hechavarria is one of the best defensive shortstops out there/ the nerds don’t know what they’re talking about/ advanced metrics like defensive runs saved are stupid and should be discounted, because nerds.”

The old-school baseball people also cite a 50 point BABIP fueled by improvement in batting average as evidence that he vastly improved in 2014 while the peripherals and core numbers stayed almost exactly the same. Hechavarria the player is now immaterial, Hechavarria the symbol is now all that matters. In Marlins land/ the Marlins internet there is rarely an argument that doesn’t involve this barely replacement level player.

I have come to peace and accept that since Marlins management won’t do anything about it, Hechavarria to me is now a cypher, registering all zeroes whenever he is calculated, just begging to be replaced.

Next: In Conclusion...

Mar 10, 2015; Jupiter, FL, USA; Miami Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon (9) warms up from the on deck circle during a spring training game against the Washington Nationals at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Conclusion

The Marlins have question marks all over the field and the within the pipeline in 2015 but what they might have is some luck — or perhaps none of it. Luck is nothing more than random variance, the universe conspiring to make things interesting. BABIPS fluctuate, injuries happen or are avoided, and home runs are hit as doubles. Sometimes, a simple roller down the first base line means a team losing the World Series.

There are literally an unlimited number of outcomes inherent in a baseball season. And if the Marlins want any chance to make it to October they need more lucky breaks from the baseball gods than bad ones.

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