Miami Marlins Season Preview: Predicting the NL East

Mar 29, 2015; Melbourne, FL, USA; Washington Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond (20) reacts to a called third strike as the umpire looks on at Space Coast Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball is back!

For Miami Marlins fans, waiting for those three magical words has been like waiting for Christmas morning. But we have finally arrived, and hope truly springs eternal for a franchise poised to make some noise in the National League.

After an exciting offseason that saw the Marlins give Giancarlo Stanton a record 13-year, $325 million deal, an extension for young star Christian Yelich, and deals that brought Dee Gordon and Mat Latos to South Florida, Miami is primed and ready to take the next step in their development. 

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But for the Marlins to take those steps, making strides in the NL East is important. While the Marlins have won two World Series titles, they have never won the division, so they’ve proven that winning the division isn’t exactly life or death. Yet you can’t make the Wild Card finishing fourth, either, so it’s time for them to show the rest of the division that there’s a new dog in the hunt.

So we’ll breakdown the entire division, with how each team can see their season go right or wrong, projections, and have a look at the early schedule. Titles can’t be won in April, but we can learn a lot early on. I tried this format on our sister site for the Heat (CHEAP PLUG!) and it seemed to go well. OK, my predication for division champion didn’t exactly work out as planned, so that might be bad news for my NL East winner.

Please enjoy our latest preview for the 2015 season, and welcome back, baseball!

Next: Philadelphia Phillies

#4 – Atlanta Braves – 2014: 79-83, tied for 2^nd in the National League East

Projected Lineup: 2B Jace Peterson, RF Nick Markakis, LF Carlos Quentin, 1B Freddie Freeman, 3B Chris Johnson, SS Andrelton Simmons, CF Cameron Maybin

Projected Starters: Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, Shelby Miller, Trevor Cahill, Eric Stults

Hello, I’d like to introduce you to the Atlanta Braves, because this isn’t quite the same team that you last saw at the end of last season. Gone are Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, and Evan Gattis, as the Braves have stripped down a team that had made the Wild Card back in 2012 to one prepped to rebuild. The Atlanta front office believed that Fredi Gonzalez (he who has the leadership ability of a cardboard box) took that group as far as they could have gone, so now it’s time to look forward as the Braves are set to move into a new ballpark in 2017, replacing the out of date Turner Field, which opened all the way back in 1997. 

Tomahawk Take

How it can go right: The staple of the Braves franchise over the last 25 years has been pitching, and this year’s edition is no exception. Teheran, Wood, and Miller lead a rotation that can carry Atlanta on a night when their bats aren’t clicking, while holding things down until Mike Minor is able to return sometime in May. If the pitching staff can have a super-human effort, they can be very annoying to the top teams in the division.

How it can go wrong: If they trade closer Craig Kimbrel on the eve of Opening Day, but they would never do that.

Wait, they did what???

The Braves traded their All-Star closer and Melvin (BJ) Upton to the Padres for Maybin, Quentin, and prospects, thus completing the overall of the roster. While losing Upton is no big deal – the Braves might be better off with Kate Upton out there – giving up Kimbrel now makes thing interesting at the end of the bullpen. Kimbrel and his 186 career saves, striking out an absurd 476 batters in 289 innings, while sporting an ERA of 1.61 will be hard for the Braves to replace.

To make matters worse, the Braves were 29^th in runs scored last season and now they’ll be without 86 of their 123 home runs with the departures of Heyward, Gattis, and the Upton Brothers (although they did replace Melvin with a cheaper version of him), so runs are definitely going to be at a premium for them. This could get ugly.

First month (or so) of games: @Miami (3), Mets (3), Miami (3), @Toronto (3), @Mets (3), @Philadelphia (3), Washington (3), Cincinnati (4)

18 division games during April will give the Braves plenty of chances to get off on the right foot, as wins against their rivals might be a nice confidence boost for a team many will leave for dead after Sunday’s deal. Depending on how you feel about the Marlins and Mets, the Braves have a punchers chance to make it out of April on the right side of .500.

Win/Loss Predication: 73-89. Looking at the bright side is all you can do with this year’s Braves, as without anything resembling a coherent offense, they are going to be a mess. Pitching can only take you so far, but with questions on offense and having to replace an all-world closer, this is going to be a long year.

Next: New York Mets

#3- New York Mets – 2014: 79-83, tied for 2^nd in the National League East

Projected Lineup: CF Juan Lagares, 2B Daniel Murphy, 3B David Wright, 1B Lucas Duda, LF Michael Cuddyer, RF Curtis Granderson, C Travis d’Arnaud, SS Wilmer Flores

Projected Starters: Bartolo Colon, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee

The Mets are an interesting case, as there’s enough here to produce a sleeper in the National League, while punching enough holes into the discussion to make them a middle of the road team. Since Carlos Beltran watched Adam Wainwright’s breaking ball go right by him in the last game of the 2006 NLCS, the Mets have been irrelevant in the national spotlight. But with the fall of the Yankee dynasty, and the retirement of Derek Jeter, the New York media is ready to champion the boys from Queens. So let’s step right up and meet the Mets. 

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• Miami Marlins are pursuing Michael Conforto
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How it can go right: Harvey’s return from Tommy John surgery bolsters a rotation what was pretty good to begin with, now adding a CY Young candidate to the mix can only make things better. He hasn’t pitched since 2013 and one worries about rust, but then Harvey finishes Spring Training with a 1.19 ERA and all is right with the world. Harvey, Colon, and reigining NL Rookie of the Year deGrom, are key reasons why the Mets have sleeper potential.

How it can go wrong: But then they lose Zach Wheeler for the season and that vaunted staff takes a hit. While still very good with their front three starters, losing Wheeler leaves questions with the rest of the rotation. One also has to wonder if Adonis Colon can still pitch at high level at the ripe old age of 41. And while super-prospect Noah Syndergaard is waiting in Triple A – he’s a similar victim as Kris Bryant with the Cubs, as the Mets will probably keep Syndergaard in the Minors to delay his service time – Niese and Gee will have to not rock the boat until he arrives.

Then comes the question of their offense, as the Mets were middle of the NL in runs scored. Wright started to shows of decline last season, finishing with .269/.324/.374 slash line, his lowest batting average since 2011, and his .698 OPS was the lowest of his career, while Granderson hasn’t provided any real return on the four-year, $60 million investment that the Mets made in him. To help with the offensive woes, New York went out and brought in Cuddyer, who hit 30 homers over the last two seasons…as a member of the Rockies. Last time I checked, Citi Field isn’t exactly Coors Field. Not to mention he battled injuries last season and is 36 years old, but he got a two- year, $21 million deal because LOL Mets.

First month (or so) of games: @Washington (3), @Atlanta (3), Philadelphia (3), Miami (4), Atlanta (3), @Yankees (3), @Miami (3), @Washington (4)

Although starting the first week on the road, the Mets get their next 10 games at home against a bad Phillie team; a weak Braves squad; and fellow sleeper Marlins, so the schedule is their friend in April. Even though they finish the month on the road, they get three of those in the same city, so they won’t leave New York for two weeks. A sleeper team, with a friendly early schedule, can be a dangerous one.

Win/Lose Prediction: 81-81. Yet I can’t buy into them. There’s more question marks with this team: Where is the offense coming from? Can Wright bounce back? Will Colon keep it going, bringing hope to overweight forty-something year olds everywhere? Things are fun when the Mets are relevant, but this might be as close to it as they can get.

Next: Miami Marlins?

#2- Miami Marlins – 2014: 77-85, 4^th in the National League East

Projected Lineup: 2B Dee Gordon, LF Christian Yelich, RF Giancarlo Stanton, 1B Michael Morse, 3B Martin Prado, CF Marcell Ozuna, C Jarrod Saltalamachhia, SS Adeiny Hechavarria

Projected Starters: Henderson Alvarez, Mat Latos, Jarred Cosart, Dan Haren, Tom Koehler

While the Mets are a sleeper team that has a lot of question marks about whether they’re legitimate, the Marlins question marks are more about whether they’re ready to take the leap this year. With a talented young core of players, Miami has the look of a perennial playoff team, with a superstar in Stanton, and rising stars in Yelich and Ozuna, and a nasty pitching staff that will only get nastier when Jose Fernandez makes his return during the summer, the buzz is in place. But are the Marlins ready?

How it can go right: The young Marlins lost Fernandez to Tommy John surgery in May of last season, lost Stanton to facial injuries sustained when he was hit by a pitch  in September, and had holes at first and second, yet were still in the playoff race well into late August. 

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Fernandez is coming back, Stanton is back to being the God of Thunder, and the additions of Gordon and Morse shore up the two question marks in the infield, while bringing in a serviceable third baseman in Prado that will help replace the over-achieving Casey Mcgehee. Yelich and Ozuna are primed to take the next step in their development, and the staff has enough bullets in the chamber to hold things down until Fernandez returns. What’s not to love?

How it can go wrong: Well, there’s a chance some of those things don’t happen as fast as hoped. While Fernandez is slated to coming back around June or July, what the staff looks like by then is a question. Latos is trying to bounce back from various injuries and hasn’t looked sharp this spring. What exactly can Haren bring to the table, considering there’s still a chance he doesn’t want to be in Miami? Is Cosart over the gambling controversy that arose in March?

As for the offense, the Marlins need to get more from the bottom of the lineup, as Hechavarria is more known for his glove, while John Buck Saltalamachhia hasn’t lived up to the contract he signed before last season. Gordon needs to shake off an awful second half of 2014, as the All-Star saw his OPS drop nearly 100 points after the break, while only getting on base at a .300 clip; not good for a leadoff hitter. Most importantly, as Yelich/Ozuna ready to make the jump? If not, this season might not end well.

First month (or so) of games: Atlanta (3), Tampa Bay (3), @Atlanta (3), @Mets (4), @Phillies (3), Washington (3), Mets (3)

That’s an interesting start. Winnable games at home in the first week, but 10 games on the road to follow. However the Braves/Mets/Phillies stretch isn’t exactly a gauntlet, so 6-4 or 7-3 on that trip isn’t out of the question. That first showdown with the Nationals could be fun.

Win/Loss Predication: 83-79. Even with all the hope and promise, there’s still some growing pains that the Marlins have to go through. There’s no question that the talent is there, just the timing might not be right. A healthy Fernandez will help a ton, but Latos needs to bounce back to help keep things afloat. The new offense needs to generate production to help offset any issues from the pitching staff, and that starts at the top with Gordon. But make no question, this season will be fun.

Next: Washington Nationals

#1- Washington Nationals – 96-66; 1^st in the National League East

Projected lineup: 2B Yunel Escobar, SS Ian Desmond, RF Bryce Harper, 1B Ryan Zimmerman, C Wilson Ramos, LF Jayson Werth, 3B Anthony Rendon, CF Denard Span

Projected Starters: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister

Just typing that rotation isn’t fair. But those are the Nationals for you. The odds-on-favorite to get out of the division has more than enough firepower to get the job done. Even with all the injuries that they incurred last season, the weakness of the rest of the division gave them more than enough of a cushion to win. Now with a couple of up-and-coming teams trying to fight for position in Washington’s rear-view mirror, the window might be closing on the division dominance for the Nationals It just won’t be this season.

How it can go right: Those five starters do what they’re expected to do, so that kind of takes some of the luster out of this topic. They led the league in ERA last season, and now they’ve added Scherzer. Yikes! So it’s really about what more they can do. If everyone can stay relatively healthy, 100 wins isn’t that big of a stretch.

Harper is as hyped a player as here has been in recent memory, but he’s kind of underwhelmed in living up to those expectations. He is only 22 years old, so there’s plenty of time for him to take the next step in his progression. He looks to be in tremendous shape coming into this season, but here’s hoping his new physique will help him stay healthy. If he starts to blossom into the player he was expected to be, then it’s game over in the NL East. 

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• Miami Marlins are pursuing Michael Conforto
• Miami Marlins need to spend to win
• Miami Marlins can’t afford to botch this trade
• Miami Marlins news: the New York Mets are a risky threat
• Miami Marlins keep missing out on stars

How it can go wrong: Werth, Rendon, and Span are already looking like they’ll start the season on the DL, so the Nationals are already off to a rough start, health-wise. The injuries didn’t hold Washington back last season, but now the Marlins and Mets are looking to make things a little tougher for them. If health remains an issue, and the offense gets off to a slow start, it might give the underdogs enough of a push to keep the Nats close.

First month (or so) of games: Mets (3), @Phillies (3), @Red Sox (3), Phillies (4), Cardinals (3), @Miami (3), @Atlanta (3), @Mets (4)

A lot of division games to kick things off, with 13 of them on the road, so they’ll get to put their rivals to the test. They could start the season 5-1 before that trip to Boston, before fattening up on the Phillies, again, at home. The Nats can put some early season pressure on the Marlins and Mets.

Win/Loss Prediction: 97-65. A year after winning 96 games, the Nationals only got better. A one-game improvement takes into account that they’ll battle injuries at some point, so we can’t get too crazy on their win total. But 100 wins isn’t out of the question. This team is kind of good.

Next: Marlin Maniac Round Table Discussion